Browsing by Author "Oreskes, Naomi"
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- ItemThe ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2018) Lewandowsky, Stephan; Cowtan, Kevin; Risbey, James S; Mann, Michael E; Steinman, Byron A; Oreskes, Naomi; Rahmstorf, StefanWe review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
- ItemStratigraphic and Earth System approaches to defining the Anthropocene(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2016) Steffen, Will; Leinfelder, Reinhold; Zalasiewicz, Jan; Waters, Colin N.; Williams, Mark; Summerhayes, Colin; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Cearreta, Alejandro; Crutzen, Paul; Edgeworth, Matt; Ellis, Erle C.; Fairchild, Ian J.; Galuszka, Agnieszka; Grinevald, Jacques; Haywood, Alan; do Sul, Juliana Ivar; Jeandel, Catherine; McNeill, J.R.; Odada, Eric; Oreskes, Naomi; Revkin, Andrew; deB. Richter, Daniel; Syvitski, James; Vidas, Davor; Wagreich, Michael; Wing, Scott L.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Schellnhuber, H.J.Stratigraphy provides insights into the evolution and dynamics of the Earth System over its long history. With recent developments in Earth System science, changes in Earth System dynamics can now be observed directly and projected into the near future. An integration of the two approaches provides powerful insights into the nature and significance of contemporary changes to Earth. From both perspectives, the Earth has been pushed out of the Holocene Epoch by human activities, with the mid‐20th century a strong candidate for the start date of the Anthropocene, the proposed new epoch in Earth history. Here we explore two contrasting scenarios for the future of the Anthropocene, recognizing that the Earth System has already undergone a substantial transition away from the Holocene state. A rapid shift of societies toward the UN Sustainable Development Goals could stabilize the Earth System in a state with more intense interglacial conditions than in the late Quaternary climate regime and with little further biospheric change. In contrast, a continuation of the present Anthropocene trajectory of growing human pressures will likely lead to biotic impoverishment and a much warmer climate with a significant loss of polar ice.