Browsing by Author "Schölkopf, Bernhard"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    A few extreme events dominate global interannual variability in gross primary production
    (Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2014) Zscheischle, Jakob; Mahecha, Miguel D.; von Buttlar, Jannis; Harmeling, Stefan; Jung, Martin; Rammig, Anja; Randerson, James T.; Schölkopf, Bernhard; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Tomelleri, Enrico; Zaehle, Sönke; Reichstein, Markus
    Understanding the impacts of climate extremes on the carbon cycle is important for quantifying the carbon-cycle climate feedback and highly relevant to climate change assessments. Climate extremes and fires can have severe regional effects, but a spatially explicit global impact assessment is still lacking. Here, we directly quantify spatiotemporal contiguous extreme anomalies in four global data sets of gross primary production (GPP) over the last 30 years. We find that positive and negative GPP extremes occurring on 7% of the spatiotemporal domain explain 78% of the global interannual variation in GPP and a significant fraction of variation in the net carbon flux. The largest thousand negative GPP extremes during 1982–2011 (4.3% of the data) account for a decrease in photosynthetic carbon uptake of about 3.5 Pg C yr−1, with most events being attributable to water scarcity. The results imply that it is essential to understand the nature and causes of extremes to understand current and future GPP variability.
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    Foundations and New Horizons for Causal Inference
    (Zürich : EMS Publ. House, 2019) Peters, Jonas; Richardson, Thomas; Schölkopf, Bernhard
    While causal inference is established in some disciplines such as econometrics and biostatistics, it is only starting to emerge as a valuable tool in areas such as machine learning and artificial intelligence. The mathematical foundations of causal inference are fragmented at present. The aim of the workshop "Foundations and new horizons for causal inference" was to unify existing approaches and mathematical foundations as well as exchange ideas between different fields. We regard this workshop as successful in that it brought together researchers from different disciplines who were able to learn from each other not only about different formulations of related problems, but also about solutions and methods that exist in the different fields.
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    Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2019) Runge, Jakob; Bathiany, Sebastian; Bollt, Erik; Camps-Valls, Gustau; Coumou, Dim; Deyle, Ethan; Glymour, Clark; Kretschmer, Marlene; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Muñoz-Marí, Jordi; van Nes, Egbert H.; Peters, Jonas; Quax, Rick; Reichstein, Markus; Scheffer, Marten; Schölkopf, Bernhard; Spirtes, Peter; Sugihara, George; Sun, Jie; Zhang, Kun; Zscheischler, Jakob
    The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the commonly adopted correlation techniques. Here, we give an overview of causal inference frameworks and identify promising generic application cases common in Earth system sciences and beyond. We discuss challenges and initiate the benchmark platform causeme.net to close the gap between method users and developers. © 2019, The Author(s).
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    Machine Learning for Science: Mathematics at the Interface of Data-driven and Mechanistic Modelling
    (Oberwolfach : Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach, 2023) Lawrence, Neil; Montgomery, Jessica; Schölkopf, Bernhard
    Rapid progress in machine learning is enabling scientific advances across a range of disciplines. However, the utility of machine learning for science remains constrained by its current inability to translate insights from data about the dynamics of a system to new scientific knowledge about why those dynamics emerge, as traditionally represented by physical modelling. Mathematics is the interface that bridges data-driven and physical models of the world and can provide a foundation for delivering such knowledge. This workshop convened researchers working across domains with a shared interest in mathematics, machine learning, and their application in the sciences, to explore how tools of mathematics can help build machine learning tools for scientific discovery.