Browsing by Author "Zickfeld, K."
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- ItemThe Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): Rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2018) Keller, D.P.; Lenton, A.; Scott, V.; Vaughan, N.E.; Bauer, N.; Ji, D.; Jones, C.D.; Kravitz, B.; Muri, H.; Zickfeld, K.The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention - deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2gC, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5gC warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.
- ItemHistorical and idealized climate model experiments: An intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Eby, M.; Weaver, A.J.; Alexander, K.; Zickfeld, K.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Cimatoribus, A.A.; Crespin, E.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Edwards, N.R.; Eliseev, A.V.; Feulner, G.; Fichefet, T.; Forest, C.E.; Goosse, H.; Holden, P.B.; Joos, F.; Kawamiya, M.; Kicklighter, D.; Kienert, H.; Matsumoto, K.; Mokhov, I.I.; Monier, E.; Olsen, S.M.; Pedersen, J.O.P.; Perrette, M.; Philippon-Berthier, G.; Ridgwell, A.; Schlosser, A.; Schneider von Deimling, T.; Shaffer, G.; Smith, R.S.; Spahni, R.; Sokolov, A.P.; Steinacher, M.; Tachiiri, K.; Tokos, K.; Yoshimori, M.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.
- ItemMulti-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2006) Knopf, B.; Flechsig, M.; Zickfeld, K.Parameter uncertainty analysis of climate models has become a standard approach for model validation and testing their sensitivity. Here we present a novel approach that allows one to estimate the robustness of a bifurcation point in a multi-parameter space. In this study we investigate a box model of the Indian summer monsoon that exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation against those parameters that govern the heat balance of the system. The bifurcation brings about a change from a wet summer monsoon regime to a regime that is characterised by low precipitation. To analyse the robustness of the bifurcation point itself and its location in parameter space, we perform a multi-parameter uncertainty analysis by applying qualitative, Monte Carlo and deterministic methods that are provided by a multi-run simulation environment. Our results show that the occurrence of the bifurcation point is robust over a wide range of parameter values. The position of the bifurcation, however, is found to be sensitive on these specific parameter choices.