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Communicating sentiment and outlook reverses inaction against collective risks
(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2020) Wang, Zhen; Jusup, Marko; Guo, Hao; Shi, Lei; Geček, Sunčana; Anand, Madhur; Perc, Matjaž; Bauch, Chris T.; Kurths, Jürgen; Boccaletti, Stefano; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Collective risks permeate society, triggering social dilemmas in which working toward a common goal is impeded by selfish interests. One such dilemma is mitigating runaway climate change. To study the social aspects of climate-change mitigation, we organized an experimental game and asked volunteer groups of three different sizes to invest toward a common mitigation goal. If investments reached a preset target, volunteers would avoid all consequences and convert their remaining capital into monetary payouts. In the opposite case, however, volunteers would lose all their capital with 50% probability. The dilemma was, therefore, whether to invest one's own capital or wait for others to step in. We find that communicating sentiment and outlook helps to resolve the dilemma by a fundamental shift in investment patterns. Groups in which communication is allowed invest persistently and hardly ever give up, even when their current investment deficits are substantial. The improved investment patterns are robust to group size, although larger groups are harder to coordinate, as evidenced by their overall lower success frequencies. A clustering algorithm reveals three behavioral types and shows that communication reduces the abundance of the free-riding type. Climate-change mitigation, however, is achieved mainly by cooperator and altruist types stepping up and increasing contributions as the failure looms. Meanwhile, contributions from free riders remain flat throughout the game. This reveals that the mechanisms behind avoiding collective risks depend on an interaction between behavioral type, communication, and timing.
Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
(Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Su, Buda; Huang, Jinlong; Fischer, Thomas; Wang, Yanjun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Zhai, Jianqing; Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zeng, Xiaofan; Wang, Guojie; Tao, Hui; Gemmer, Marco; Li, Xiucang; Jiang, Tong
We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986–2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006–2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.
Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica
(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2020) Turney, Chris S.M.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; McKay, Nicholas P.; van Sebille, Erik; Jones, Richard T.; Etheridge, David; Rubino, Mauro; Thornton, David P.; Davies, Siwan M.; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Thomas, Zoë A.; Bird, Michael I.; Munksgaard, Niels C.; Kohno, Mika; Woodward, John; Winter, Kate; Weyrich, Laura S.; Rootes, Camilla M.; Millman, Helen; Albert, Paul G.; Rivera, Andres; van Ommen, Tas; Curran, Mark; Moy, Andrew; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kawamura, Kenji; Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Weber, Michael E.; Manning, Christina J.; Young, Jennifer; Cooper, Alan
The future response of the Antarctic ice sheet to rising temperatures remains highly uncertain. A useful period for assessing the sensitivity of Antarctica to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG) (129 to 116 ky), which experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher global mean sea level (GMSL) (+6 to 9 m) relative to present day. LIG sea level cannot be fully explained by Greenland Ice Sheet melt (∼2 m), ocean thermal expansion, and melting mountain glaciers (∼1 m), suggesting substantial Antarctic mass loss was initiated by warming of Southern Ocean waters, resulting from a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in response to North Atlantic surface freshening. Here, we report a blue-ice record of ice sheet and environmental change from the Weddell Sea Embayment at the periphery of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which is underlain by major methane hydrate reserves. Constrained by a widespread volcanic horizon and supported by ancient microbial DNA analyses, we provide evidence for substantial mass loss across the Weddell Sea Embayment during the LIG, most likely driven by ocean warming and associated with destabilization of subglacial hydrates. Ice sheet modeling supports this interpretation and suggests that millennial-scale warming of the Southern Ocean could have triggered a multimeter rise in global sea levels. Our data indicate that Antarctica is highly vulnerable to projected increases in ocean temperatures and may drive ice-climate feedbacks that further amplify warming.
Encapsulation of hydrophobic components in dendrimersomes and decoration of their surface with proteins and nucleic acids
(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2019) Torre, Paola; Xiao, Qi; Buzzacchera, Irene; Sherman, Samuel E.; Rahimi, Khosrow; Kostina, Nina Yu.; Rodriguez-Emmenegger, Cesar; Möller, Martin; Wilson, Christopher J.; Klein, Michael L.; Good, Matthew C.; Percec, Virgil
Reconstructing the functions of living cells using nonnatural components is one of the great challenges of natural sciences. Compartmentalization, encapsulation, and surface decoration of globular assemblies, known as vesicles, represent key early steps in the reconstitution of synthetic cells. Here we report that vesicles self-assembled from amphiphilic Janus dendrimers, called dendrimersomes, encapsulate high concentrations of hydrophobic components and do so more efficiently than commercially available stealth liposomes assembled from phospholipid components. Multilayer onion-like dendrimersomes demonstrate a particularly high capacity for loading low-molecular weight compounds and even folded proteins. Coassembly of amphiphilic Janus dendrimers with metal-chelating ligands conjugated to amphiphilic Janus dendrimers generates dendrimersomes that selectively display folded proteins on their periphery in an oriented manner. A modular strategy for tethering nucleic acids to the surface of dendrimersomes is also demonstrated. These findings augment the functional capabilities of dendrimersomes to serve as versatile biological membrane mimics.
Exploring functional pairing between surface glycoconjugates and human galectins using programmable glycodendrimersomes
(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2018) Xiao, Qi; Ludwig, Anna-Kristin; Romanò, Cecilia; Buzzacchera, Irene; Sherman, Samuel E.; Vetro, Maria; Vértesy, Sabine; Kaltner, Herbert; Reed, Ellen H.; Möller, Martin; Wilson, Christopher J.; Hammer, Daniel A.; Oscarson, Stefan; Klein, Michael L.; Gabius, Hans-Joachim; Percec, Virgil
Precise translation of glycan-encoded information into cellular activity depends critically on highly specific functional pairing between glycans and their human lectin counter receptors. Sulfoglycolipids, such as sulfatides, are important glycolipid components of the biological membranes found in the nervous and immune systems. The optimal molecular and spatial design aspects of sulfated and nonsulfated glycans with high specificity for lectin-mediated bridging are unknown. To elucidate how different molecular and spatial aspects combine to ensure the high specificity of lectin-mediated bridging, a bottom-up toolbox is devised. To this end, negatively surface-charged glycodendrimersomes (GDSs), of different nanoscale dimensions, containing sulfo-lactose groups are self-assembled in buffer from a synthetic sulfatide mimic: Janus glycodendrimer (JGD) containing a 3′-O-sulfo-lactose headgroup. Also prepared for comparative analysis are GDSs with nonsulfated lactose, a common epitope of human membranes. These self-assembled GDSs are employed in aggregation assays with 15 galectins, comprising disease-related human galectins, and other natural and engineered variants from four families, having homodimeric, heterodimeric, and chimera architectures. There are pronounced differences in aggregation capacity between human homodimeric and heterodimeric galectins, and also with respect to their responsiveness to the charge of carbohydrate-derived ligand. Assays reveal strong differential impact of ligand surface charge and density, as well as lectin concentration and structure, on the extent of surface cross-linking. These findings demonstrate how synthetic JGD-headgroup tailoring teamed with protein engineering and network assays can help explain how molecular matchmaking operates in the cellular context of glycan and lectin complexity.
Gas plasma–oxidized sodium chloride acts via hydrogen peroxide in a model of peritoneal carcinomatosis
(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Miebach, Lea; Freund, Eric; Clemen, Ramona; Kersting, Stephan; Partecke, Lars-Ivo; Bekeschus, Sander
Gas plasma technology generates reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (ROS/RNS), inducing lethal oxidative damage in tumor cells. The transfer of gas plasma–derived ROS/RNS into liquids has been proposed as an innovative anti-cancer strategy targeting peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC). However, the mechanism of action is under debate. To this end, we compared gas plasma–oxidized medical-grade sodium chloride (oxNaCl) with a concentration-matched control (cmc) of NaCl enriched with equivalent concentrations of H2O2 and NO32 in several cell lines and models of PC. Strikingly, oxNaCl and cmc performed equally well in oxidation and cytotoxic activity in tumor cells in two-dimensional cultures, three-dimensional (3D) tumor spheroids, vascularized 3D tumors grown on chicken-embryo chorioallantoic membranes, and a syngeneic PC mouse model in vivo. Given the importance of immunotherapies in oncology today, we focused on immunological consequences of the treatment. Again, to a similar extent, oxNaCl and cmc increased tumor cell immunogenicity and enhanced uptake by and maturation of peripheral blood monocyte–derived dendritic cells together with an inflammatory secretion profile. Furthermore, NanoString gene expression profiling revealed immune system processes and unfolded protein response-related pathways as being linked to the observed anti-tumor effects for both oxNaCl and cmc. In conclusion, gas plasma–generated oxNaCl and cmc showed equal therapeutic efficacy in our PC-related models. In light of the many promising anti-cancer studies of gas plasma–oxidized liquids and the convenient production of corresponding cmcs in large quantities as needed in clinics, our findings may spur research lines based on low-dose oxidants in peritoneal cancer therapy.
Laser spectroscopic technique for direct identification of a single virus I: FASTER CARS
(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2020) Deckert, Volker; Deckert-Gaudig, Tanja; Cialla-May, Dana; Popp, Jürgen; Zell, Roland; Deinhard-Emmer, Stefanie; Sokolov, Alexei V.; Yi, Zhenhuan; Scully, Marlan O.
From the famous 1918 H1N1 influenza to the present COVID-19 pandemic, the need for improved viral detection techniques is all too apparent. The aim of the present paper is to show that identification of individual virus particles in clinical sample materials quickly and reliably is near at hand. First of all, our team has developed techniques for identification of virions based on a modular atomic force microscopy (AFM). Furthermore, femtosecond adaptive spectroscopic techniques with enhanced resolution via coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (FASTER CARS) using tip-enhanced techniques markedly improves the sensitivity [M. O. Scully, et al, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99, 10994-11001 (2002)].
Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war
(2020) Scherrer, Kim J.N.; Harrison, Cheryl S.; Heneghan, Ryan F.; Galbraith, Eric; Bardeen, Charles G.; Coupe, Joshua; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Luna, August; Robock, Alan; Stevens, Jessica; Stevenson, Samantha; Toon, Owen B.; Xia, Lili
Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.
Phylodynamic signatures in the emergence of community-associated MRSA
(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2022) Steinig, Eike; Aglua, Izzard; Duchene, Sebastian; Meehan, Michael T.; Yoannes, Mition; Firth, Cadhla; Jaworski, Jan; Drekore, Jimmy; Urakoko, Bohu; Poka, Harry; Wurr, Clive; Ebos, Eri; Nangen, David; Müller, Elke; Mulvey, Peter; Jackson, Charlene; Blomfeldt, Anita; Aamot, Hege Vangstein; Laman, Moses; Manning, Laurens; Earls, Megan; Coleman, David C.; Greenhill, Andrew; Ford, Rebecca; Stegger, Marc; Syed, Muhammad Ali; Jamil, Bushra; Monecke, Stefan; Ehricht, Ralf; Smith, Simon; Pomat, William; Horwood, Paul; Tong, Steven Y. C.; McBryde, Emma
Community-associated, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lineages have emerged in many geographically distinct regions around the world during the past 30 y. Here, we apply consistent phylodynamic methods across multiple community-associated MRSA lineages to describe and contrast their patterns of emergence and dissemination. We generated whole-genome sequencing data for the Australian sequence type (ST) ST93-MRSA-IV from remote communities in Far North Queensland and Papua New Guinea, and the Bengal Bay ST772-MRSA-V clone from metropolitan communities in Pakistan. Increases in the effective reproduction number (Re) and sustained transmission (Re > 1) coincided with spread of progenitor methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) in remote northern Australian populations, dissemination of the ST93-MRSA-IV genotype into population centers on the Australian East Coast, and subsequent importation into the highlands of Papua New Guinea and Far North Queensland. Applying the same phylodynamic methods to existing lineage datasets, we identified common signatures of epidemic growth in the emergence and epidemiological trajectory of community-associated S. aureus lineages from America, Asia, Australasia, and Europe. Surges in Re were observed at the divergence of antibiotic-resistant strains, coinciding with their establishment in regional population centers. Epidemic growth was also observed among drug-resistant MSSA clades in Africa and northern Australia. Our data suggest that the emergence of community-associated MRSA in the late 20th century was driven by a combination of antibiotic-resistant genotypes and host epidemiology, leading to abrupt changes in lineage-wide transmission dynamics and sustained transmission in regional population centers.
A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security
(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2020) Jägermeyr, Jonas; Robock, Alan; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Xia, Lili; Khabarov, Nikolay; Folberth, Christian; Schmid, Erwin; Liu, Wenfeng; Zabel, Florian; Rabin, Sam S.; Puma, Michael J.; Heslin, Alison; Franke, James; Foster, Ian; Asseng, Senthold; Bardeen, Charles G.; Toon, Owen B.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia
A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.
Reply to Smith et al.: Social tipping dynamics in a world constrained by conflicting interests
(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2020) Otto, Ilona M.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
[No abstract available]
Respiratory patterns of European pear (Pyrus communis L. ‘Conference’) throughout pre- and post-harvest fruit development
(London [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Brandes, Nicole; Zude-Sasse, Manuela
Information on the developmental stage of pear pre-harvest and in shelf-life is crucial to determine the optimum timing of harvest, post-harvest treatment, and time of consumption ensuring high eating quality. In the present study, CO2 emission and fruit quality of European pear (Pyrus communis L.) ‘Conference’ were analysed pre- and post-harvest with emphasis on shelf life for three years. Additionally, cytochrome and cyanide-resistant O2 consumption were analysed in the last year of experiments. The respiration rate of pear showed typical climacteric rise of CO2 emission in two years only, despite daily measurements. However, in each year the fruit quality in shelf life was closely linked to harvest date suggesting climacteric fruit response. Thus, the developmental stage of ‘Conference’ pear should be analysed by additional methods. Particularly, the cytochrome and cyanide-resistant O2 consumption showed an encouraging potential to obtain data on characteristic respiratory patterns. © 2019
Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050
(2020) Otto, Ilona M.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Cremades, Roger; Bhowmik, Avit; Hewitt, Richard J.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rockström, Johan; Allerberger, Franziska; McCaffrey, Mark; Doe, Sylvanus S.P.; Lenferna, Alex; Morán, Nerea; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
Strong impact of wildfires on the abundance and aging of black carbon in the lowermost stratosphere
(Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Ditas, Jeannine; Ma, Nan; Zhang, Yuxuan; Assmann, Denise; Neumaier, Marco; Riede, Hella; Karu, Einar; Williams, Jonathan; Scharffe, Dieter; Wang, Qiaoqiao; Saturno, Jorge; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Katich, Joseph M.; McMeeking, Gavin R.; Zahn, Andreas; Hermann, Markus; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Su, Hang; Cheng, Yafang
Wildfires inject large amounts of black carbon (BC) particles into the atmosphere, which can reach the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) and cause strong radiative forcing. During a 14-month period of observations on board a passenger aircraft flying between Europe and North America, we found frequent and widespread biomass burning (BB) plumes, influencing 16 of 160 flight hours in the LMS. The average BC mass concentrations in these plumes (∼140 ng·m−3, standard temperature and pressure) were over 20 times higher than the background concentration (∼6 ng·m−3) with more than 100-fold enhanced peak values (up to ∼720 ng·m−3). In the LMS, nearly all BC particles were covered with a thick coating. The average mass equivalent diameter of the BC particle cores was ∼120 nm with a mean coating thickness of ∼150 nm in the BB plume and ∼90 nm with a coating of ∼125 nm in the background. In a BB plume that was encountered twice, we also found a high diameter growth rate of ∼1 nm·h−1 due to the BC particle coatings. The observed high concentrations and thick coatings of BC particles demonstrate that wildfires can induce strong local heating in the LMS and may have a significant influence on the regional radiative forcing of climate.
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
(Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Lenton, Timothy M.; Folke, Carl; Liverman, Diana; Summerhayes, Colin P.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Cornell, Sarah E.; Crucifix, Michel; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Lade, Steven J.; Scheffer, Marten; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.

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