European Energy Transition – Germany in the Heart of Europe

Abstract

The European Union acknowledges climate change as an existential threat and is pursuing a growth strategy through the European Green Deal that envisions the development of a resource-efficient and competitive economy while at the same time adhering to climate pro- tection measures [1, 2]. These measures include Europe achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. As an interim target, net greenhouse gas emissions are to be re- duced by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels [3]. Achieving these goals will require a holistic transformation of the European energy system. Against this background, the ques- tion arises as to which pathways and strategies are available to achieve these objectives in Europe and what role Germany will play given its central location. For this study, a scenario for the transformation of the European energy system has been developed, which is aligned with the reduction targets set for Europe. The analyses are supplemented by further detailed studies in order to be able to map aspects such as the development of European hydrogen infrastructures and their robustness under various con ditions. The analyses are carried out using the ETHOS (Energy Transformation Pathway Optimization Suite) model family, which was developed by the Jülich Systems Analysis in- stitute (ICE-2) at Forschungszentrum Jülich [4]. This allows energy systems to be mapped on different scales, taking into account the interactions between the individual sectors. The model family includes, among others, models for the detailed mapping of wind power and photovoltaic expansion and generation potentials and for the mapping of global energy mar- kets and possible energy imports and exports. In addition, integrated infrastructure analyses can be carried out while taking all relevant energy carriers into account. The scenarios presented here show cost-optimized strategies for achieving the transfor mation of the European energy system. At the core of the analyses carried out here is the ETHOS.Europe energy system model, which maps the European energy supply with the infrastructures for electricity, natural gas and hydrogen and enables cost-optimal transfor- mation strategies for Europe to be calculated with a high spatial resolution. While adhering to exogenously set framework conditions, which include greenhouse gas reduction targets, for example, the model minimizes the transformation costs for the European energy supply system. In doing so, the specified energy demand must be met every hour. The analyses show that greenhouse gas neutrality can only be achieved through a funda- mental restructuring of the European energy supply. From a technical and economic point of view, this restructuring is feasible, but it requires all European players to act collectively. Our results show that ...

The expansion rates of wind and PV plants must be increased four to fivefold in order to ensure a cost-optimized greenhouse gas-neutral energy supply in Europe. The expansion of renewables will take place in all countries. The high expansion rates will promote domestic, competitive hydrogen production and reduce the need for extra-European hydrogen imports and reelectrification. For a collective transformation, a significant increase in exchange capacities between countries is necessary in order to make optimal use of renewable energy potential. This applies to both the electricity and hydrogen networks. Expanding ex- change capacities also promotes resilience to periods of low wind and low sunlight, as energy flows from unaffected regions can compensate for lower production times. Higher expansion rates for renewables lead to lower overall system costs. If current average expansion rates continue and the expansion of renewables is thus delayed, overall costs will rise by 6%. In addition, dependence on energy imports from outside Europe will increase, as Europe cannot produce enough hydrogen at com- petitive costs. European hydrogen is competitive with hydrogen imported from extra-European countries. In 2030, European hydrogen will be competitive at world market prices of €3.20/kg. In 2050, this will be the case at world market prices of €2.20/kg. Nuclear energy is not competitive with PV and wind unless investment costs are drastically reduced. Even with low investment costs, the share of nuclear energy in electricity production will remain below 15%. The expansion of hydrogen storage and reelectrification facilities can be used as additional flexibility options to compensate for periods of low wind and low sun- light. Underground hydrogen storage is a cost-effective option but has the disad- vantage that the geological conditions are not suitable in all regions of Europe. Joint action is therefore even more important for the use of this option. Germany will import most of its energy demand, as the location conditions for green electricity and hydrogen production are more economical in other regions of Europe. In this context, Germany benefits from its central geographical position.