Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point
dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage | 531 | eng |
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue | 5 | eng |
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume | 13 | eng |
dc.contributor.author | Knopf, B. | |
dc.contributor.author | Flechsig, M. | |
dc.contributor.author | Zickfeld, K. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-08-03T06:36:55Z | |
dc.date.available | 2020-08-03T06:36:55Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2006 | |
dc.description.abstract | Parameter uncertainty analysis of climate models has become a standard approach for model validation and testing their sensitivity. Here we present a novel approach that allows one to estimate the robustness of a bifurcation point in a multi-parameter space. In this study we investigate a box model of the Indian summer monsoon that exhibits a saddle-node bifurcation against those parameters that govern the heat balance of the system. The bifurcation brings about a change from a wet summer monsoon regime to a regime that is characterised by low precipitation. To analyse the robustness of the bifurcation point itself and its location in parameter space, we perform a multi-parameter uncertainty analysis by applying qualitative, Monte Carlo and deterministic methods that are provided by a multi-run simulation environment. Our results show that the occurrence of the bifurcation point is robust over a wide range of parameter values. The position of the bifurcation, however, is found to be sensitive on these specific parameter choices. | eng |
dc.description.version | publishedVersion | eng |
dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.34657/3991 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/5362 | |
dc.language.iso | eng | eng |
dc.publisher | Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH | eng |
dc.relation.doi | https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-13-531-2006 | |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 13 (2006), Nr. 5 | eng |
dc.relation.issn | 1023-5809 | |
dc.rights.license | CC BY-NC-SA 2.5 Unported | eng |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ | eng |
dc.subject | bifurcation | eng |
dc.subject | climate modeling | eng |
dc.subject | monsoon | eng |
dc.subject | summer | eng |
dc.subject | uncertainty analysis | eng |
dc.subject.ddc | 530 | eng |
dc.title | Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis of a bifurcation point | eng |
dc.type | article | eng |
dc.type | Text | eng |
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journalTitle | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics | eng |
tib.accessRights | openAccess | eng |
wgl.contributor | PIK | eng |
wgl.subject | Physik | eng |
wgl.type | Zeitschriftenartikel | eng |
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