CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 UnportedSu, BudaHuang, JinlongFischer, ThomasWang, YanjunKundzewicz, Zbigniew W.Zhai, JianqingSun, HeminWang, AnqianZeng, XiaofanWang, GuojieTao, HuiGemmer, MarcoLi, XiucangJiang, Tong2023-01-182023-01-182018https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10917http://dx.doi.org/10.34657/9943We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986–2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006–2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.enghttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0570000500ChinaDroughtDrought lossesGlobal warmingProjectionsArticle