Calibration methods for gas turbine performance models

Abstract

The WIAS software package BOP is used to simulate gas turbine models. In order to make accurate predictions the underlying models need to be calibrated. This study compares different strategies of model calibration. These are the deterministic optimization tools as nonlinear least squares (MSO) and the sparsity promoting variant LASSO, but also the probabilistic (Bayesian) calibration. The latter allows for the quantification of the inherent uncertainty, and it gives rise to a surrogate uncertainty measure in the MSO tool. The implementation details are accompanied with a numerical case study, which highlights the advantages and drawbacks of each of the proposed calibration methods.