The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations
dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage | 123007 | |
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue | 12 | |
dc.bibliographicCitation.journalTitle | Environmental Research Letters | eng |
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume | 13 | |
dc.contributor.author | Lewandowsky, Stephan | |
dc.contributor.author | Cowtan, Kevin | |
dc.contributor.author | Risbey, James S | |
dc.contributor.author | Mann, Michael E | |
dc.contributor.author | Steinman, Byron A | |
dc.contributor.author | Oreskes, Naomi | |
dc.contributor.author | Rahmstorf, Stefan | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-01-16T13:46:09Z | |
dc.date.available | 2023-01-16T13:46:09Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2018 | |
dc.description.abstract | We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics. | eng |
dc.description.version | publishedVersion | eng |
dc.identifier.uri | https://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/10879 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://dx.doi.org/10.34657/9905 | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.publisher | Bristol : IOP Publ. | |
dc.relation.doi | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372 | |
dc.relation.essn | 1748-9326 | |
dc.rights.license | CC BY 3.0 Unported | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0 | |
dc.subject.ddc | 690 | |
dc.subject.other | pause' in global warming | eng |
dc.subject.other | climate models | eng |
dc.subject.other | climate projections | eng |
dc.title | The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations | eng |
dc.type | Article | eng |
dc.type | Text | eng |
tib.accessRights | openAccess | |
wgl.contributor | PIK | |
wgl.subject | Umweltwissenschaften | ger |
wgl.type | Zeitschriftenartikel | ger |
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