Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypes

dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage27eng
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue2eng
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume24eng
dc.contributor.authorHarrison, Paula A.
dc.contributor.authorHarmáčková, Zuzana V.
dc.contributor.authorKarabulut, Armağan Aloe
dc.contributor.authorBrotons, Lluis
dc.contributor.authorCantele, Matthew
dc.contributor.authorClaudet, Joachim
dc.contributor.authorDunford, Robert W.
dc.contributor.authorGuisan, Antoine
dc.contributor.authorHolman, Ian P.
dc.contributor.authorJacobs, Sander
dc.contributor.authorKok, Kasper
dc.contributor.authorLobanova, Anastasia
dc.contributor.authorMorán-Ordóñez, Alejandra
dc.contributor.authorPedde, Simona
dc.contributor.authorRixen, Christian
dc.contributor.authorSantos-Martín, Fernando
dc.contributor.authorSchlaepfer, Martin A.
dc.contributor.authorSolidoro, Cosimo
dc.contributor.authorSonrel, Anthony
dc.contributor.authorHauck, Jennifer
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-26T07:07:37Z
dc.date.available2021-10-26T07:07:37Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractScenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): Business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature’s contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature’s contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development. © 2019 by the author(s).eng
dc.description.versionpublishedVersioneng
dc.identifier.urihttps://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/7100
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.34657/6147
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.publisherWolfville, Nova Scotia : Resilience Allianceeng
dc.relation.doihttps://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10818-240227
dc.relation.essn1195-5449
dc.relation.essn1708-3087
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEcology and Society 24 (2019), Nr. 2eng
dc.rights.licenseCC BY-NC 4.0 Unportedeng
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/eng
dc.subjectBiodiversityeng
dc.subjectDriverseng
dc.subjectEcosystem serviceseng
dc.subjectExploratory scenarioseng
dc.subjectImpactseng
dc.subjectIPBESeng
dc.subjectModelseng
dc.subjectNatureeng
dc.subjectNature’s contributions to people (NCP)eng
dc.subject.ddc333,7eng
dc.subject.ddc570eng
dc.titleSynthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in europe and central asia using scenario archetypeseng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.typeTexteng
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journalTitleEcology and Societyeng
tib.accessRightsopenAccesseng
wgl.contributorPIKeng
wgl.subjectUmweltwissenschafteneng
wgl.typeZeitschriftenartikeleng
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
ES-2019-10818.pdf
Size:
1.89 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description: