Costs of sea dikes – regressions and uncertainty estimates

dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage765eng
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue5eng
dc.bibliographicCitation.lastPage779eng
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume17
dc.contributor.authorLenk, Stephan
dc.contributor.authorRybski, Diego
dc.contributor.authorHeidrich, Oliver
dc.contributor.authorDawson, Richard J.
dc.contributor.authorKropp, Jürgen P.
dc.date.accessioned2017-06-26T23:57:09Z
dc.date.available2019-06-28T10:35:11Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractFailure to consider the costs of adaptation strategies can be seen by decision makers as a barrier to implementing coastal protection measures. In order to validate adaptation strategies to sea-level rise in the form of coastal protection, a consistent and repeatable assessment of the costs is necessary. This paper significantly extends current knowledge on cost estimates by developing – and implementing using real coastal dike data – probabilistic functions of dike costs. Data from Canada and the Netherlands are analysed and related to published studies from the US, UK, and Vietnam in order to provide a reproducible estimate of typical sea dike costs and their uncertainty. We plot the costs divided by dike length as a function of height and test four different regression models. Our analysis shows that a linear function without intercept is sufficient to model the costs, i.e. fixed costs and higher-order contributions such as that due to the volume of core fill material are less significant. We also characterise the spread around the regression models which represents an uncertainty stemming from factors beyond dike length and height. Drawing an analogy with project cost overruns, we employ log-normal distributions and calculate that the range between 3x and x∕3 contains 95 % of the data, where x represents the corresponding regression value. We compare our estimates with previously published unit costs for other countries. We note that the unit costs depend not only on the country and land use (urban/non-urban) of the sites where the dikes are being constructed but also on characteristics included in the costs, e.g. property acquisition, utility relocation, and project management. This paper gives decision makers an order of magnitude on the protection costs, which can help to remove potential barriers to developing adaptation strategies. Although the focus of this research is sea dikes, our approach is applicable and transferable to other adaptation measures.eng
dc.description.versionpublishedVersioneng
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.34657/236
dc.identifier.urihttps://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/3827
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.publisherMünchen : European Geopyhsical Unioneng
dc.relation.doihttps://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-765-2017
dc.relation.ispartofseriesNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Volume 17, Issue 5, Page 765-779eng
dc.rights.licenseCC BY 3.0 Unportedeng
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/eng
dc.subject.ddc500eng
dc.titleCosts of sea dikes – regressions and uncertainty estimateseng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.typeTexteng
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journalTitleNatural Hazards and Earth System Scienceseng
tib.accessRightsopenAccesseng
wgl.contributorPIKeng
wgl.subjectUmweltwissenschafteneng
wgl.typeZeitschriftenartikeleng
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