Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming

dc.bibliographicCitation.firstPage1
dc.bibliographicCitation.issue1
dc.bibliographicCitation.journalTitleScience Advanceseng
dc.bibliographicCitation.lastPage13
dc.bibliographicCitation.volume9
dc.contributor.authorOtto, Christian
dc.contributor.authorKuhla, Kilian
dc.contributor.authorGeiger, Tobias
dc.contributor.authorSchewe, Jacob
dc.contributor.authorFrieler, Katja
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-04T08:15:20Z
dc.date.available2023-04-04T08:15:20Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractGlobal warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses.eng
dc.description.versionpublishedVersioneng
dc.identifier.urihttps://oa.tib.eu/renate/handle/123456789/11891
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.34657/10924
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherWashington, DC [u.a.] : Assoc.
dc.relation.doihttps://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add6616
dc.relation.essn2375-2548
dc.rights.licenseCC BY 4.0 Unported
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
dc.subject.ddc500
dc.subject.otherAnnual growtheng
dc.subject.otherEconomic growthseng
dc.subject.otherEvent-basedeng
dc.subject.otherGrowth losseng
dc.subject.otherGrowth modelseng
dc.subject.otherInsurance coverageseng
dc.subject.otherNorth Atlanticeng
dc.subject.otherclimate changeeng
dc.subject.othereconomic aspecteng
dc.subject.othereconomic developmenteng
dc.subject.othergreenhouse effecteng
dc.subject.otherhumaneng
dc.subject.otherhurricaneeng
dc.subject.otherinsuranceeng
dc.subject.otherUnited Stateseng
dc.titleBetter insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warmingeng
dc.typeArticleeng
dc.typeTexteng
tib.accessRightsopenAccess
wgl.contributorPIK
wgl.subjectUmweltwissenschaftenger
wgl.typeZeitschriftenartikelger
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