2011, Jacobi, C., Hoffmann, P., Placke, M., Stober, G.

The recent solar minimum has been characterized by an anomalous strong decrease of thermospheric density since 2005. Here we analyze anomalies of mesosphere/lower thermosphere parameters possibly connected with this effect. In particular, nighttime mean LF reflection heights measured at Collm, Germany, show a very strong decrease after 2005, indicating a density decrease. This decrease is also visible in mean meteor heights measured with VHF meteor radar at Collm. This density decrease is accompanied by an increase of gravity wave (GW) amplitudes in the upper mesosphere and a decrease in the lower thermosphere. On the decadal scale, GWs are negatively correlated with the background zonal wind, but this correlation is modulated in the course of the solar cycle, indicating the combined effect of GW filtering and density decrease.

2008, Hoffmann, P., Rapp, M., Fiedler, J., Latteck, R.

Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE) have been studied at Andenes (69° N, 16° E), Norway, using VHF radar observations since 1994. One remarkable feature of these observations is the fact that {during 50% of the time,} the radar echoes occur in the form of two or more distinct layers. In the case of multiple PMSE layers, statistical analysis shows that the lower layer occurs at a mean height of ∼83.4 km, which is almost identical to the mean height of noctilucent clouds (NLC) derived from observation with the ALOMAR Rayleigh/Mie/Raman lidar at the same site. To investigate the layering processes microphysical model simulations under the influence of tidal and gravity waves were performed. In the presence of long period gravity waves, these model investigations predict an enhanced formation of multiple PMSE layer structures, where the lower layer is a consequence of the occurrence of the largest particles at the bottom of the ice cloud. This explains the coincidence of the lowermost PMSE layers and NLC. During periods with enhanced amplitudes of the semidiurnal tide, the observed NLC and PMSE show pronounced tidal structures comparable to the results of corresponding microphysical simulations. At periods with short period gravity waves there is a tendency for a decreasing occurrence of NLC and for variable weak PMSE structures.

2014, Aich, V., Liersch, S., Vetter, T., Huang, S., Tecklenburg, J., Hoffmann, P., Koch, H., Fournet, S., Krysanova, V., Müller, E.N., Hattermann, F.F.

This study aims to compare impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large representative African river basins: the Niger, the Upper Blue Nile, the Oubangui and the Limpopo. We set up the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for all four basins individually. The validation of the models for four basins shows results from adequate to very good, depending on the quality and availability of input and calibration data.

For the climate impact assessment, we drive the model with outputs of five bias corrected Earth system models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. This climate input is put into the context of climate trends of the whole African continent and compared to a CMIP5 ensemble of 19 models in order to test their representativeness. Subsequently, we compare the trends in mean discharges, seasonality and hydrological extremes in the 21st century. The uncertainty of results for all basins is high. Still, climate change impact is clearly visible for mean discharges but also for extremes in high and low flows. The uncertainty of the projections is the lowest in the Upper Blue Nile, where an increase in streamflow is most likely. In the Niger and the Limpopo basins, the magnitude of trends in both directions is high and has a wide range of uncertainty. In the Oubangui, impacts are the least significant. Our results confirm partly the findings of previous continental impact analyses for Africa. However, contradictory to these studies we find a tendency for increased streamflows in three of the four basins (not for the Oubangui). Guided by these results, we argue for attention to the possible risks of increasing high flows in the face of the dominant water scarcity in Africa. In conclusion, the study shows that impact intercomparisons have added value to the adaptation discussion and may be used for setting up adaptation plans in the context of a holistic approach.

2016, Fokko Hattermann, F., Huang, S., Burghoff, O., Hoffmann, P., Kundzewicz, Z.W.

2013, Matthias, V., Hoffmann, P., Manson, A., Meek, C., Stober, G., Brown, P., Rapp, M.

The Northern Hemispheric winter is disturbed by large scale variability mainly caused by Planetary Waves (PWs), which interact with the mean flow and thus result in Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs). The effects of a SSW on the middle atmosphere are an increase of stratospheric and a simultaneous decrease of mesospheric temperature as well as a wind reversal to westward wind from the mesosphere to the stratosphere. In most cases these disturbances are strongest at polar latitudes, get weaker toward the south and vanish at mid-latitudes around 50° to 60° N as for example during the winter 2005/06. However, other events like in 2009, 2010 and 2012 show a similar or even stronger westward wind at mid-than at polar latitudes either in the mesosphere or in the stratosphere during the SSW. This study uses local meteor and MF-radar measurements, global satellite observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and assimilated model data from MERRA (Modern-ERA Retrospective analysis for research and Applications). We compare differences in the latitudinal structure of the zonal wind, temperature and PW activity between a "normal" event, where the event in 2006 was chosen representatively, and the latitudinal displaced events in 2009, 2010 and 2012. A continuous westward wind band between the pole and 20° N is observed during the displaced events. Furthermore, distinctive temperature differences at mid-latitudes occur before the displaced warmings compared to 2006 as well as a southward extended stratospheric warming afterwards. These differences between the normal SSW in 2006 and the displaced events in 2009, 2010 and 2012 are linked to an increased PWactivity between 30° N and 50° N and the changed stationary wave flux in the stratosphere around the displaced events compared to 2006.

2015, Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Hoffmann, P., Österle, H., Werner, P.C.

2014, Fytterer, T., Arras, C., Hoffmann, P., Jacobi, C.

Global Positioning System radio occultation measurements by FORMOsa SATellite mission-3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate satellites were used to analyse the characteristics of the 8-h oscillation in sporadic E (E S ) layers. Six-year averages based on the 3-monthly mean zonal means from December 2006 to November 2012 were constructed for the amplitude of the terdiurnal oscillation in the occurrence frequency of E S . A global distribution from 60° S to 60° N is given, revealing two peaks above 100 km during solstice with one maximum at low and midlatitudes (approximately 10° to 40°) in each hemisphere. During equinox, the global distribution is marked by two dominant peaks centred at midlatitudes, while an additional weak maximum is located at very low southern latitudes. The seasonal characteristics around 110 km reveal large values during equinox at low and midlatitudes (<40° N), while further peaks occur in April at >40° S and in July near 30° S. The pattern around 90 km is dominated by a broad peak between 20° and 30° S from March to September. Comparisons with the terdiurnal oscillation in the neutral atmosphere derived from zonal wind and vertical zonal wind shear simulated with a circulation model of the middle atmosphere, as well as with satellite observations of the terdiurnal tide in temperature, fit quite well for the results above 100 km, but do not show agreement for lower altitudes.