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- ItemGreenhouse gas emissions from broiler manure treatment options are lowest in well-managed biogas production(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 2020) Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Breier, Jannes; Herrmann, Christiane; Libra, Judy; Prochnow, AnnetteThe production of broiler meat has increased significantly in the last decades in Germany and worldwide, and is projected to increase further in the future. As the number of animals raised increases, so too does the amount of manure produced. The identification of manure treatment options that cause low greenhouse gas emissions becomes ever more important. This study compares four treatment options for broiler manure followed by field spreading: storage before distribution, composting, anaerobic digestion in a biogas plant and production of biochar. For these options potential direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions were assessed for the situation in Germany. Previous analyses have shown that greenhouse gas balances of manure management are often strongly influenced by a small number of processes. Therefore, in this study major processes were represented with several variants and the sensitivity of model results to different management decisions and uncertain parameters was assessed. In doing so, correlations between processes were considered, in which higher emissions earlier on in the process chain reduce emissions later. The results show that biogas production from broiler manure leads to the lowest greenhouse gas emissions in most of the analysed cases, mainly due to the emission savings related to the substitution of mineral fertilizers and the production of electricity. Pyrolysis of the manure and subsequent field spreading as a soil amendment can lead to similarly low emissions due to the long residence time of the biochar, and may even be the better option than poorly managed biogas production. Composting is the treatment option resulting in highest emissions of greenhouse gases, due to high ammonia volatilization, and is likely worse than untreated storage in this respect. These results are relatively insensitive to the length of transport required for field spreading, but high uncertainties are associated with the use of emission factors.
- ItemAfforestation to mitigate climate change: Impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2016) Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leo; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, AlexanderAmbitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions..
- ItemLarge-scale bioenergy production: How to resolve sustainability trade-offs?(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2018) Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Klein, David; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Stevanovic, MiodragLarge-scale 2nd generation bioenergy deployment is a key element of 1.5 °C and 2 °C transformation pathways. However, large-scale bioenergy production might have negative sustainability implications and thus may conflict with the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda. Here, we carry out a multi-criteria sustainability assessment of large-scale bioenergy crop production throughout the 21st century (300 EJ in 2100) using a global land-use model. Our analysis indicates that large-scale bioenergy production without complementary measures results in negative effects on the following sustainability indicators: deforestation, CO2 emissions from land-use change, nitrogen losses, unsustainable water withdrawals and food prices. One of our main findings is that single-sector environmental protection measures next to large-scale bioenergy production are prone to involve trade-offs among these sustainability indicators—at least in the absence of more efficient land or water resource use. For instance, if bioenergy production is accompanied by forest protection, deforestation and associated emissions (SDGs 13 and 15) decline substantially whereas food prices (SDG 2) increase. However, our study also shows that this trade-off strongly depends on the development of future food demand. In contrast to environmental protection measures, we find that agricultural intensification lowers some side-effects of bioenergy production substantially (SDGs 13 and 15) without generating new trade-offs—at least among the sustainability indicators considered here. Moreover, our results indicate that a combination of forest and water protection schemes, improved fertilization efficiency, and agricultural intensification would reduce the side-effects of bioenergy production most comprehensively. However, although our study includes more sustainability indicators than previous studies on bioenergy side-effects, our study represents only a small subset of all indicators relevant for the SDG agenda. Based on this, we argue that the development of policies for regulating externalities of large-scale bioenergy production should rely on broad sustainability assessments to discover potential trade-offs with the SDG agenda before implementation.
- ItemFossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Leimbach, Marian; Strefler, Jessica; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Weindl, Isabelle; Bertram, Christoph; Dietrich, Jan-Philipp; Luderer, Gunnar; Pehl, Michaja; Pietzcker, Robert; Piontek, Franziska; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bonsch, Markus; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Schultes, Anselm; Schwanitz, Jana; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Edenhofer, OttmarThis paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.
- ItemCase Study of Effects of Mineral N Fertilization Amounts on Water Productivity in Rainfed Winter Rapeseed Cultivation on a Sandy Soil in Brandenburg (Germany) over Three Years(Basel : MDPI, 2021) Drastig, Katrin; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Meyer-Aurich, Andreas; Ammon, Christian; Prochnow, AnnetteDetailed knowledge about farm management practices and related hydrological processes on water productivity is required to substantially increase the productivity of precipitation water use in agriculture. With this in mind, the effect of the nitrogen (N) fertilization level on water productivity of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) was analyzed using a modeling approach and field measurements. In this first study of interception loss and water productivity in winter oilseed rape, the crop was cultivated in a field experiment on a sandy soil in Brandenburg (Germany) under five nitrogen fertilization treatments with 0, 60, 120, 180, and 240 kg mineral N ha−1 a−1. Based on data from three vegetation periods the water flows and the mass-based water productivity of seeds were calculated on a daily basis with the AgroHyd Farmmodel modeling software. As recommended from the recently developed guidelines of the FAO on water use in agriculture, the method water productivity was applied and uncertainties associated with the calculations were assessed. Economic profit-based water productivity (WPprofit) was calculated considering the costs of fertilization and the optimal level of N fertilization, which was determined based on a quadratic crop yield response function. Mean water productivity of seeds varied from 1.16 kg m−3 for the unfertilized control sample to 2.00 kg m−3 under the highest fertilization rate. N fertilization had a clearly positive effect on WPprofit. However, fertilizer application rates above 120 kg N ha−1 a−1 led to only marginal increases in yields. Water productivity of seeds under the highest fertilization rate was only insignificantly higher than under medium application rates. The optimum N level for the maximal WPprofit identified here was higher with 216 kg N ha−1 a−1. The conclusion is that further research is needed to investigate the interaction between fertilization and other farm management practices.