2022, Leinonen, Ville, Kokkola, Harri, Yli-Juuti, Taina, Mielonen, Tero, Kühn, Thomas, Nieminen, Tuomo, Heikkinen, Simo, Miinalainen, Tuuli, Bergman, Tommi, Carslaw, Ken, Decesari, Stefano, Fiebig, Markus, Hussein, Tareq, Kivekäs, Niku, Krejci, Radovan, Kulmala, Markku, Leskinen, Ari, Massling, Andreas, Mihalopoulos, Nikos, Mulcahy, Jane P., Noe, Steffen M., van Noije, Twan, O'Connor, Fiona M., O'Dowd, Colin, Olivie, Dirk, Pernov, Jakob B., Petäjä, Tuukka, Seland, Øyvind, Schulz, Michael, Scott, Catherine E., Skov, Henrik, Swietlicki, Erik, Tuch, Thomas, Wiedensohler, Alfred, Virtanen, Annele, Mikkonen, Santtu

Despite a large number of studies, out of all drivers of radiative forcing, the effect of aerosols has the largest uncertainty in global climate model radiative forcing estimates. There have been studies of aerosol optical properties in climate models, but the effects of particle number size distribution need a more thorough inspection. We investigated the trends and seasonality of particle number concentrations in nucleation, Aitken, and accumulation modes at 21 measurement sites in Europe and the Arctic. For 13 of those sites, with longer measurement time series, we compared the field observations with the results from five climate models, namely EC-Earth3, ECHAM-M7, ECHAM-SALSA, NorESM1.2, and UKESM1. This is the first extensive comparison of detailed aerosol size distribution trends between in situ observations from Europe and five earth system models (ESMs). We found that the trends of particle number concentrations were mostly consistent and decreasing in both measurements and models. However, for many sites, climate models showed weaker decreasing trends than the measurements. Seasonal variability in measured number concentrations, quantified by the ratio between maximum and minimum monthly number concentration, was typically stronger at northern measurement sites compared to other locations. Models had large differences in their seasonal representation, and they can be roughly divided into two categories: for EC-Earth and NorESM, the seasonal cycle was relatively similar for all sites, and for other models the pattern of seasonality varied between northern and southern sites. In addition, the variability in concentrations across sites varied between models, some having relatively similar concentrations for all sites, whereas others showed clear differences in concentrations between remote and urban sites. To conclude, although all of the model simulations had identical input data to describe anthropogenic mass emissions, trends in differently sized particles vary among the models due to assumptions in emission sizes and differences in how models treat size-dependent aerosol processes. The inter-model variability was largest in the accumulation mode, i.e. sizes which have implications for aerosol-cloud interactions. Our analysis also indicates that between models there is a large variation in efficiency of long-range transportation of aerosols to remote locations. The differences in model results are most likely due to the more complex effect of different processes instead of one specific feature (e.g. the representation of aerosol or emission size distributions). Hence, a more detailed characterization of microphysical processes and deposition processes affecting the long-range transport is needed to understand the model variability.

2021, Schoenberg, Pontus von, Tunved, Peter, Grahn, Håkan, Wiedensohler, Alfred, Krejci, Radovan, Brännström, Niklas

In the event of a failure of a nuclear power plant with release of radioactive material into the atmosphere, dispersion modelling is used to understand how the released radioactivity is spread. For the dispersion of particles, Lagrangian particle dispersion models (LPDMs) are commonly used, in which model particles, representing the released material, are transported through the atmosphere. These model particles are usually inert and undergo only first-order processes such as dry deposition and simplified wet deposition along the path through the atmosphere. Aerosol dynamic processes including coagulation, condensational growth, chemical interactions, formation of new particles and interaction with new aerosol sources are usually neglected in such models. The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of these advanced aerosol dynamic processes if they were to be included in LPDM simulations for use in radioactive preparedness. In this investigation, a fictitious failure of a nuclear power plant is studied for three geographically and atmospherically different sites. The incident was simulated with a Lagrangian single-trajectory box model with a new simulation for each hour throughout a year to capture seasonal variability of meteorology and variation in the ambient aerosol. (a) We conclude that modelling of wet deposition by incorporating an advanced cloud parameterization is advisable, since it significantly influence simulated levels of airborne and deposited activity including radioactive hotspots, and (b) we show that inclusion of detailed ambient-aerosol dynamics can play a large role in the model result in simulations that adopt a more detailed representation of aerosol–cloud interactions. The results highlight a potential necessity for implementation of more detailed representation of general aerosol dynamic processes into LPDMs in order to cover the full range of possible environmental characteristics that can apply during a release of radionuclides into the atmosphere.