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search.filters.applied.f.access: openAccess × Author: Kurths, Jürgen × End date: 2023 × Start date: 2023 × Has files: Yes × Type: Text ×

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    Complex systems in the spotlight: next steps after the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics
    (Bristol : IOP Publ., 2023) Bianconi, Ginestra; Arenas, Alex; Biamonte, Jacob; Carr, Lincoln D; Kahng, Byungnam; Kertesz, Janos; Kurths, Jürgen; Lü, Linyuan; Masoller, Cristina; Motter, Adilson E; Perc, Matjaž; Radicchi, Filippo; Ramaswamy, Ramakrishna; Rodrigues, Francisco A; Sales-Pardo, Marta; San Miguel, Maxi; Thurner, Stefan; Yasseri, Taha
    The 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics recognized the fundamental role of complex systems in the natural sciences. In order to celebrate this milestone, this editorial presents the point of view of the editorial board of JPhys Complexity on the achievements, challenges, and future prospects of the field. To distinguish the voice and the opinion of each editor, this editorial consists of a series of editor perspectives and reflections on few selected themes. A comprehensive and multi-faceted view of the field of complexity science emerges. We hope and trust that this open discussion will be of inspiration for future research on complex systems.
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    Teleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system
    (London : Nature Publ. Group, 2023) Liu, Teng; Chen, Dean; Yang, Lan; Meng, Jun; Wang, Zanchenling; Ludescher, Josef; Fan, Jingfang; Yang, Saini; Chen, Deliang; Kurths, Jürgen; Chen, Xiaosong; Havlin, Shlomo; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
    Tipping elements are components of the Earth system that may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at specific thresholds. It is not well understood to what degree tipping of one system can influence other regions or tipping elements. Here, we propose a climate network approach to analyse the global impacts of a prominent tipping element, the Amazon Rainforest Area (ARA). We find that the ARA exhibits strong correlations with regions such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and West Antarctic ice sheet. Models show that the identified teleconnection propagation path between the ARA and the TP is robust under climate change. In addition, we detect that TP snow cover extent has been losing stability since 2008. We further uncover that various climate extremes between the ARA and the TP are synchronized under climate change. Our framework highlights that tipping elements can be linked and also the potential predictability of cascading tipping dynamics.
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    The role of atmospheric rivers in the distribution of heavy precipitation events over North America
    (Munich : EGU, 2023) Vallejo-Bernal, Sara M.; Wolf, Frederik; Boers, Niklas; Traxl, Dominik; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen
    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filaments of extensive water vapor transport in the lower troposphere that play a crucial role in the distribution of freshwater but can also cause natural and economic damage by facilitating heavy precipitation. Here, we investigate the large-scale spatiotemporal synchronization patterns of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) over the western coast and the continental regions of North America (NA), during the period from 1979 to 2018. In particular, we use event synchronization and a complex network approach incorporating varying delays to examine the temporal evolution of spatial patterns of HPEs in the aftermath of land-falling ARs. For that, we employ the SIO-R1 catalog of ARs that landfall on the western coast of NA, ranked in terms of intensity and persistence on an AR-strength scale which varies from level AR1 to AR5, along with daily precipitation estimates from ERA5 with a 0.25'spatial resolution. Our analysis reveals a cascade of synchronized HPEs, triggered by ARs of level AR3 or higher. On the first 3d after an AR makes landfall, HPEs mostly occur and synchronize along the western coast of NA. In the subsequent days, moisture can be transported to central and eastern Canada and cause synchronized but delayed HPEs there. Furthermore, we confirm the robustness of our findings with an additional AR catalog based on a different AR detection method. Finally, analyzing the anomalies of integrated water vapor transport, geopotential height, upper-level meridional wind, and precipitation, we find atmospheric circulation patterns that are consistent with the spatiotemporal evolution of the synchronized HPEs. Revealing the role of ARs in the precipitation patterns over NA will lead to a better understanding of inland HPEs and the effects that changing climate dynamics will have on precipitation occurrence and consequent impacts in the context of a warming atmosphere.
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    Path integral solutions for n-dimensional stochastic differential equations under α-stable Lévy excitation
    (College Park, Md : [Verlag nicht ermittelbar], 2023) Zan, Wanrong; Xu, Yong; Kurths, Jürgen
    In this paper, the path integral solutions for a general n-dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with α-stable Lévy noise are derived and verified. Firstly, the governing equations for the solutions of n-dimensional SDEs under the excitation of α-stable Lévy noise are obtained through the characteristic function of stochastic processes. Then, the short-time transition probability density function of the path integral solution is derived based on the Chapman-Kolmogorov-Smoluchowski (CKS) equation and the characteristic function, and its correctness is demonstrated by proving that it satisfies the governing equation of the solution of the SDE, which is also called the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation. Besides, illustrative examples are numerically considered for highlighting the feasibility of the proposed path integral method, and the pertinent Monte Carlo solution is also calculated to show its correctness and effectiveness.