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- ItemKey knowledge and data gaps in modelling the influence of CO2 concentration on the terrestrial carbon sink(München : Elsevier, 2016) Pugh, T.A.M.; Müller, C.; Arneth, A.; Haverd, V.; Smith, B.Primary productivity of terrestrial vegetation is expected to increase under the influence of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). Depending on the fate of such additionally fixed carbon, this could lead to an increase in terrestrial carbon storage, and thus a net terrestrial sink of atmospheric carbon. Such a mechanism is generally believed to be the primary global driver behind the observed large net uptake of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by the biosphere. Mechanisms driving CO2 uptake in the Terrestrial Biosphere Models (TBMs) used to attribute and project terrestrial carbon sinks, including that from increased [CO2], remain in large parts unchanged since those models were conceived two decades ago. However, there exists a large body of new data and understanding providing an opportunity to update these models, and directing towards important topics for further research. In this review we highlight recent developments in understanding of the effects of elevated [CO2] on photosynthesis, and in particular on the fate of additionally fixed carbon within the plant with its implications for carbon turnover rates, on the regulation of photosynthesis in response to environmental limitations on in-plant carbon sinks, and on emergent ecosystem responses. We recommend possible avenues for model improvement and identify requirements for better data on core processes relevant to the understanding and modelling of the effect of increasing [CO2] on the global terrestrial carbon sink.
- ItemClimate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2016) Pugh, T.A.M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.
- ItemConsistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Schauberger, B.; Archontoulis, S.; Arneth, A.; Balkovic, J.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Folberth, C.; Khabarov, N.; Müller, C.; Pugh, T.A.M.; Rolinski, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Schmid, E.; Wang, X.; Schlenker, W.; Frieler, K.High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO 2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.
- ItemGlobal patterns of crop yield stability under additional nutrient and water inputs(San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2018) Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Pugh, T.A.M.; Ruane, A.C.; Ciais, P.; Balkovic, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Cesar Izaurralde, R.; Jones, C.D.; Khabarov, N.; Lawrence, P.; Liu, W.; Reddy, A.D.; Schmid, E.; Wang, X.[No abstract available]