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search.filters.applied.f.access: openAccess × Author: Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich × Start date: 2019 × End date: 2019 × Start date: 2017 × DDC: 500 × Has files: Yes × Type: Article × Subject: climate change × WGL Institute: PIK ×

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    Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
    (Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2017) Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias
    In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986–2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57–130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73–150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75–147 cm) for SSP3, 93 cm (63–133 cm) for SSP4, and 132 cm (95–189 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios are dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 52 cm (34–75 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm−2, 62 cm (40–96 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm−2, 75 cm (47–113 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm−2, and 91 cm (61–132 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm−2. Average 2081–2100 annual SLR rates are 5 mm yr−1 and 19 mm yr−1 for FT 2.6 Wm−2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. We find that 2100 median SSP SLR projections could be limited to around 50 cm if 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial stay below 850 GtC, with a global coal phase-out nearly completed by that time. For SSP mitigation scenarios, a 2050 carbon price of 100 US$2005 tCO2 −1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 65 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.
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    Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles; Bethke, Ingo; Beyerle, Urs; Ciavarella, Andrew; Forster, Piers M.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Gillett, Nathan; Haustein, Karsten; Ingram, William; Iversen, Trond; Kharin, Viatcheslav; Klingaman, Nicholas; Massey, Neil; Fischer, Erich; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Scinocca, John; Seland, Øyvind; Shiogama, Hideo; Shuckburgh, Emily; Sparrow, Sarah; Stone, Dáithí; Uhe, Peter; Wallom, David; Wehner, Michael; Zaaboul, Rashyd
    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0°C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios. Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2°C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5°C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2°C scenario.