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- ItemA new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural lands. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. In contrast to the other land-use models linking economy and biophysics, crops are aggregated as a representative product in calories and intensification for the representative crop is a non-linear function of chemical inputs. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.
- ItemSimulating the Greenland ice sheet under present-day and palaeo constraints including a new discharge parameterization(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Calov, R.; Robinson, A.; Perrette, M.; Ganopolski, A.In this paper, we propose a new sub-grid scale parameterization for the ice discharge into the ocean through outlet glaciers and inspect the role of different observational and palaeo constraints for the choice of an optimal set of model parameters. This parameterization was introduced into the polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS, which is coupled to the regional climate model of intermediate complexity REMBO. Using the coupled model, we performed large ensemble simulations over the last two glacial cycles by varying two major parameters: a melt parameter in the surface melt scheme of REMBO and a discharge scaling parameter in our parameterization of ice discharge. Our empirical constraints are the present-day Greenland ice sheet surface elevation, the surface mass balance partition (ratio between total ice discharge and total precipitation) and the Eemian interglacial elevation drop relative to present day in the vicinity of the NEEM ice core. We show that the ice discharge parameterization enables us to simulate both the correct ice-sheet shape and mass balance partition at the same time without explicitly resolving the Greenland outlet glaciers. For model verification, we compare the simulated total and sectoral ice discharge with other estimates. For the model versions that are consistent with the range of observational and palaeo constraints, our simulated Greenland ice sheet contribution to Eemian sea-level rise relative to present-day amounts to 1.4 m on average (in the range of 0.6 and 2.5 m).
- ItemSize distribution, mass concentration, chemical and mineralogical composition and derived optical parameters of the boundary layer aerosol at Tinfou, Morocco, during SAMUM 2006(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2017) Kandler, K.; Schütz, L.; Deutscher, C.; Ebert, M.; Hofmann, H.; Jäckel, S.; Jaenicke, R.; Knippertz, P.; Lieke, K.; Massling, A.; Petzold, A.; Schladitz, A.; Weinzierl, B.; Wiedensohler, A.; Zorn, S.; Weinbruch, S.During the SAMUM 2006 field campaign in southern Morocco, physical and chemical properties of desert aerosols were measured. Mass concentrations ranging from 30μgm−3 for PM2.5 under desert background conditions up to 300 000μgm−3 for total suspended particles (TSP) during moderate dust storms were measured. TSP dust concentrations are correlated with the local wind speed, whereasPM10 andPM2.5 concentrations are determined by advection from distant sources. Size distributions were measured for particles with diameter between 20 nm and 500μm (parametrizations are given). Two major regimes of the size spectrum can be distinguished. For particles smaller than 500 nm diameter, the distributions show maxima around 80 nm, widely unaffected of varying meteorological and dust emission conditions. For particles larger than 500 nm, the range of variation may be up to one order of magnitude and up to three orders of magnitude for particles larger than 10μm. The mineralogical composition of aerosol bulk samples was measured by X-ray powder diffraction. Major constituents of the aerosol are quartz, potassium feldspar, plagioclase, calcite, hematite and the clay minerals illite, kaolinite and chlorite. A small temporal variability of the bulk mineralogical composition was encountered. The chemical composition of approximately 74 000 particles was determined by electron microscopic single particle analysis. Three size regimes are identified: for smaller than 500 nm in diameter, the aerosol consists of sulphates and mineral dust. For larger than 500 nm up to 50μm, mineral dust dominates, consisting mainly of silicates, and—to a lesser extent—carbonates and quartz. For diameters larger than 50μm, approximately half of the particles consist of quartz. Time series of the elemental composition show a moderate temporal variability of the major compounds. Calcium-dominated particles are enhanced during advection from a prominent dust source in Northern Africa (Chott El Djerid and surroundings). The particle aspect ratio was measured for all analysed particles. Its size dependence reflects that of the chemical composition. For larger than 500 nm particle diameter, a median aspect ratio of 1.6 is measured. Towards smaller particles, it decreases to about 1.3 (parametrizations are given). From the chemical/mineralogical composition, the aerosol complex refractive index was determined for several wavelengths from ultraviolet to near-infrared. Both real and imaginary parts show lower values for particles smaller than 500 nm in diameter (1.55–2.8 × 10−3i at 530 nm) and slightly higher values for larger particles (1.57–3.7 × 10−3i at 530 nm).
- ItemSolar radiative effects of a Saharan dust plume observed during SAMUM assuming spheroidal model particles(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2017) Otto, Sebastian; Bierwirth, Eike; Weinzierl, Bernadett; Kandler, Konrad; Esselborn, Michael; Tesche, Matthias; Schladitz, Alexander; Wendisch, Manfred; Trautmann, ThomasThe solar optical properties of Saharan mineral dust observed during the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) were explored based on measured size-number distributions and chemical composition. The size-resolved complex refractive index of the dust was derived with real parts of 1.51–1.55 and imaginary parts of 0.0008–0.006 at 550 nm wavelength. At this spectral range a single scattering albedo ωo and an asymmetry parameter g of about 0.8 were derived. These values were largely determined by the presence of coarse particles. Backscatter coefficients and lidar ratios calculated with Mie theory (spherical particles) were not found to be in agreement with independently measured lidar data. Obviously the measured Saharan mineral dust particles were of non-spherical shape. With the help of these lidar and sun photometer measurements the particle shape as well as the spherical equivalence were estimated. It turned out that volume equivalent oblate spheroids with an effective axis ratio of 1:1.6 matched these data best. This aspect ratio was also confirmed by independent single particle analyses using a scanning electron microscope. In order to perform the non-spherical computations, a database of single particle optical properties was assembled for oblate and prolate spheroidal particles. These data were also the basis for simulating the non-sphericity effects on the dust optical properties: ωo is influenced by up to a magnitude of only 1% and g is diminished by up to 4% assuming volume equivalent oblate spheroids with an axis ratio of 1:1.6 instead of spheres. Changes in the extinction optical depth are within 3.5%. Non-spherical particles affect the downwelling radiative transfer close to the bottom of the atmosphere, however, they significantly enhance the backscattering towards the top of the atmosphere: Compared to Mie theory the particle non-sphericity leads to forced cooling of the Earth-atmosphere system in the solar spectral range for both dust over ocean and desert.
- ItemThe Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Martin, M.A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.
- ItemComplementing thermosteric sea level rise estimates(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Lorbacher, K.; Nauels, A.; Meinshausen, M.Thermal expansion of seawater has been one of the most important contributors to global sea level rise (SLR) over the past 100 years. Yet, observational estimates of this volumetric response of the world's oceans to temperature changes are sparse and mostly limited to the ocean's upper 700 m. Furthermore, only a part of the available climate model data is sufficiently diagnosed to complete our quantitative understanding of thermosteric SLR (thSLR). Here, we extend the available set of thSLR diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), analyze those model results in order to complement upper-ocean observations and enable the development of surrogate techniques to project thSLR using vertical temperature profile and ocean heat uptake time series. Specifically, based on CMIP5 temperature and salinity data, we provide a compilation of thermal expansion time series that comprise 30 % more simulations than currently published within CMIP5. We find that 21st century thSLR estimates derived solely based on observational estimates from the upper 700 m (2000 m) would have to be multiplied by a factor of 1.39 (1.17) with 90 % uncertainty ranges of 1.24 to 1.58 (1.05 to 1.31) in order to account for thSLR contributions from deeper levels. Half (50 %) of the multi-model total expansion originates from depths below 490 ± 90 m, with the range indicating scenario-to-scenario variations. To support the development of surrogate methods to project thermal expansion, we calibrate two simplified parameterizations against CMIP5 estimates of thSLR: one parameterization is suitable for scenarios where hemispheric ocean temperature profiles are available, the other, where only the total ocean heat uptake is known (goodness of fit: ±5 and ±9 %, respectively).
- ItemMeteorological and trace gas factors affecting the number concentration of atmospheric Aitken (DP Combining double low line 50 nm) particles in the continental boundary layer: Parameterization using a multivariate mixed effects model(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Mikkonen, S.; Korhonen, H.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Smith, J.N.; Joutsensaari, J.; Lehtinen, K.E.J.; Hamed, A.; Breider, T.J.; Birmili, W.; Spindler, G.; Plass-Duelmer, C.; Facchini, M.C.; Laaksonen, A.Measurements of aerosol size distribution and different gas and meteorological parameters, made in three polluted sites in Central and Southern Europe: Po Valley, Italy, Melpitz and Hohenpeissenberg in Germany, were analysed for this study to examine which of the meteorological and trace gas variables affect the number concentration of Aitken (Dp= 50 nm) particles. The aim of our study was to predict the number concentration of 50 nm particles by a combination of in-situ meteorological and gas phase parameters. The statistical model needs to describe, amongst others, the factors affecting the growth of newly formed aerosol particles (below 10 nm) to 50 nm size, but also sources of direct particle emissions in that size range. As the analysis method we used multivariate nonlinear mixed effects model. Hourly averages of gas and meteorological parameters measured at the stations were used as predictor variables; the best predictive model was attained with a combination of relative humidity, new particle formation event probability, temperature, condensation sink and concentrations of SO2, NO2 and ozone. The seasonal variation was also taken into account in the mixed model structure. Model simulations with the Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP) indicate that the parameterization can be used as a part of a larger atmospheric model to predict the concentration of climatically active particles. As an additional benefit, the introduced model framework is, in theory, applicable for any kind of measured aerosol parameter.
- ItemNew developments in the representation of Saharan dust sources in the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina; Schepanski, Kerstin; Banks, Jamie R.In the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, dust source activation (DSA) observations from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are proposed to replace the original source area parameterization over the Sahara Desert. The new setup is tested in nudged simulations for the period 2007 to 2008. The evaluation is based on comparisons to dust emission events inferred from MSG dust index imagery, Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer observations, and satellite retrievals of aerosol optical thickness (AOT). The model results agree well with AERONET measurements especially in terms of seasonal variability, and a good spatial correlation was found between model results and MSG-SEVIRI (Spinning-Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager) dust AOT as well as Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) AOT. ECHAM6-HAM2 computes a more realistic geographical distribution and up to 20 % higher annual Saharan dust emissions, using the MSG-based source map. The representation of dust AOT is partly improved in the southern Sahara and Sahel. In addition, the spatial variability is increased towards a better agreement with observations depending on the season. Thus, using the MSG DSA map can help to circumvent the issue of uncertain soil input parameters. An important issue remains the need to improve the model representation of moist convection and stable nighttime conditions. Compared to sub-daily DSA information from MSG-SEVIRI and results from a regional model, ECHAM6-HAM2 notably underestimates the important fraction of morning dust events by the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet, while a major contribution is from afternoon-to-evening emissions.
- ItemHigh-resolution numerical modeling of mesoscale island wakes and sensitivity to static topographic relief data(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Nunalee, C.G.; Horváth, Á.; Basu, S.Recent decades have witnessed a drastic increase in the fidelity of numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling. Currently, both research-grade and operational NWP models regularly perform simulations with horizontal grid spacings as fine as 1 km. This migration towards higher resolution potentially improves NWP model solutions by increasing the resolvability of mesoscale processes and reducing dependency on empirical physics parameterizations. However, at the same time, the accuracy of high-resolution simulations, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), is also sensitive to orographic forcing which can have significant variability on the same spatial scale as, or smaller than, NWP model grids. Despite this sensitivity, many high-resolution atmospheric simulations do not consider uncertainty with respect to selection of static terrain height data set. In this paper, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate realistic cases of lower tropospheric flow over and downstream of mountainous islands using the default global 30 s United States Geographic Survey terrain height data set (GTOPO30), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data set (GMTED2010) terrain height data sets. While the differences between the SRTM-based and GMTED2010-based simulations are extremely small, the GTOPO30-based simulations differ significantly. Our results demonstrate cases where the differences between the source terrain data sets are significant enough to produce entirely different orographic wake mechanics, such as vortex shedding vs. no vortex shedding. These results are also compared to MODIS visible satellite imagery and ASCAT near-surface wind retrievals. Collectively, these results highlight the importance of utilizing accurate static orographic boundary conditions when running high-resolution mesoscale models.
- ItemSynthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model v2.0(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Nauels, Alexander; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias; Lorbacher, Katja; Wigley, Tom M.L.Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56m (66% range) total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the range of the latest IPCC SLR estimates. SLR projections for 2300 yield median responses of 1.02m for RCP2.6, 1.76m for RCP4.5, 2.38m for RCP6.0, and 4.73m for RCP8.5. The MAGICC sea level model provides a flexible and efficient platform for the analysis of major scenario, model, and climate uncertainties underlying long-term SLR projections. It can be used as a tool to directly investigate the SLR implications of different mitigation pathways and may also serve as input for regional SLR assessments via component-wise sea level pattern scaling.