Search Results
Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland
The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly ‘no trend’ results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981–2016 rather than for 1956–2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.
The biosphere under potential Paris outcomes
Rapid economic and population growth over the last centuries have started to push the Earth out of its Holocene state into the Anthropocene. In this new era, ecosystems across the globe face mounting dual pressure from human land use change (LUC) and climate change (CC). With the Paris Agreement, the international community has committed to holding global warming below 2°C above preindustrial levels, yet current pledges by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions appear insufficient to achieve that goal. At the same time, the sustainable development goals strive to reduce inequalities between countries and provide sufficient food, feed, and clean energy to a growing world population likely to reach more than 9 billion by 2050. Here, we present a macro‐scale analysis of the projected impacts of both CC and LUC on the terrestrial biosphere over the 21st century using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to illustrate possible trajectories following the Paris Agreement. We find that CC may cause major impacts in landscapes covering between 16% and 65% of the global ice‐free land surface by the end of the century, depending on the success or failure of achieving the Paris goal. Accounting for LUC impacts in addition, this number increases to 38%–80%. Thus, CC will likely replace LUC as the major driver of ecosystem change unless global warming can be limited to well below 2°C. We also find a substantial risk that impacts of agricultural expansion may offset some of the benefits of ambitious climate protection for ecosystems.
On the origin of the mesospheric quasi-stationary planetary waves in the unusual Arctic winter 2015/2016
The midwinter 2015/2016 was characterized by an unusually strong polar night jet (PNJ) and extraordinarily large stationary planetary wave (SPW) amplitudes in the subtropical mesosphere. The aim of this study is, therefore, to find the origin of these mesospheric SPWs in the midwinter 2015/2016 study period. The study duration is split into two periods: the first period runs from late December 2015 until early January 2016 (Period I), and the second period from early January until mid-January 2016 (Period II). While the SPW 1 dominates in the subtropical mesosphere in Period I, it is the SPW 2 that dominates in Period II. There are three possibilities explaining how SPWs can occur in the mesosphere: (1) they propagate upward from the stratosphere, (2) they are generated in situ by longitudinally variable gravity wave (GW) drag, or (3) they are generated in situ by barotropic and/or baroclinic instabilities. Using global satellite observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) the origin of the mesospheric SPWs is investigated for both time periods. We find that due to the strong PNJ the SPWs were not able to propagate upward into the mesosphere northward of 50°N but were deflected upward and equatorward into the subtropical mesosphere. We show that the SPWs observed in the subtropical mesosphere are the same SPWs as in the mid-latitudinal stratosphere. Simultaneously, we find evidence that the mesospheric SPWs in polar latitudes were generated in situ by longitudinally variable GW drag and that there is a mixture of in situ generation by longitudinally variable GW drag and by instabilities at mid-latitudes. Our results, based on observations, show that the abovementioned three mechanisms can act at the same time which confirms earlier model studies. Additionally, the possible contribution from, or impact of, unusually strong SPWs in the subtropical mesosphere to the disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the same winter is discussed.
Temporal variability of tidal and gravity waves during a record long 10-day continuous lidar sounding
Gravity waves (GWs) as well as solar tides are a key driving mechanism for the circulation in the Earth's atmosphere. The propagation of gravity waves is strongly affected by tidal waves as they modulate the mean background wind field and vice versa, which is not yet fully understood and not adequately implemented in many circulation models. The daylight-capable Rayleigh–Mie–Raman (RMR) lidar at Kühlungsborn (54°N, 12°E) typically provides temperature data to investigate both wave phenomena during one full day or several consecutive days in the middle atmosphere between 30 and 75km altitude. Outstanding weather conditions in May 2016 allowed for an unprecedented 10-day continuous lidar measurement, which shows a large variability of gravity waves and tides on timescales of days. Using a one-dimensional spectral filtering technique, gravity and tidal waves are separated according to their specific periods or vertical wavelengths, and their temporal evolution is studied. During the measurement period a strong 24h wave occurs only between 40 and 60km and vanishes after a few days. The disappearance is related to an enhancement of gravity waves with periods of 4–8h. Wind data provided by ECMWF are used to analyze the meteorological situation at our site. The local wind structure changes during the observation period, which leads to different propagation conditions for gravity waves in the last days of the measurement period and therefore a strong GW activity. The analysis indicates a further change in wave–wave interaction resulting in a minimum of the 24h tide. The observed variability of tides and gravity waves on timescales of a few days clearly demonstrates the importance of continuous measurements with high temporal and spatial resolution to detect interaction phenomena, which can help to improve parametrization schemes of GWs in general circulation models.
Calibration of Raman lidar water vapor profiles by means of AERONET photometer observations and GDAS meteorological data
We present a practical method to continuously calibrate Raman lidar observations of water vapor mixing ratio profiles. The water vapor profile measured with the multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar PollyXT is calibrated by means of co-located AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sun photometer observations and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) temperature and pressure profiles. This method is applied to lidar observations conducted during the Cyprus Cloud Aerosol and Rain Experiment (CyCARE) in Limassol, Cyprus. We use the GDAS temperature and pressure profiles to retrieve the water vapor density. In the next step, the precipitable water vapor from the lidar observations is used for the calibration of the lidar measurements with the sun photometer measurements. The retrieved calibrated water vapor mixing ratio from the lidar measurements has a relative uncertainty of 11 % in which the error is mainly caused by the error of the sun photometer measurements. During CyCARE, nine measurement cases with cloud-free and stable meteorological conditions are selected to calculate the precipitable water vapor from the lidar and the sun photometer observations. The ratio of these two precipitable water vapor values yields the water vapor calibration constant. The calibration constant for the PollyXT Raman lidar is 6.56 g kg−1 ± 0.72 g kg−1 (with a statistical uncertainty of 0.08 g kg−1 and an instrumental uncertainty of 0.72 g kg−1). To check the quality of the water vapor calibration, the water vapor mixing ratio profiles from the simultaneous nighttime observations with Raman lidar and Vaisala radiosonde sounding are compared. The correlation of the water vapor mixing ratios from these two instruments is determined by using all of the 19 simultaneous nighttime measurements during CyCARE. Excellent agreement with the slope of 1.01 and the R2 of 0.99 is found. One example is presented to demonstrate the full potential of a well-calibrated Raman lidar. The relative humidity profiles from lidar, GDAS (simulation) and radiosonde are compared, too. It is found that the combination of water vapor mixing ratio and GDAS temperature profiles allow us to derive relative humidity profiles with the relative uncertainty of 10–20 %.
A novel method for the extraction of local gravity wave parameters from gridded three-dimensional data: Description, validation, and application
For the local diagnosis of wave properties, we develop, validate, and apply a novel method which is based on the Hilbert transform. It is called Unified Wave Diagnostics (UWaDi). It provides the wave amplitude and three-dimensional wave number at any grid point for gridded three-dimensional data. UWaDi is validated for a synthetic test case comprising two different wave packets. In comparison with other methods, the performance of UWaDi is very good with respect to wave properties and their location. For a first practical application of UWaDi, a minor sudden stratospheric warming on 30 January 2016 is chosen. Specifying the diagnostics for hydrostatic inertia–gravity waves in analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, we detect the local occurrence of gravity waves throughout the middle atmosphere. The local wave characteristics are discussed in terms of vertical propagation using the diagnosed local amplitudes and wave numbers. We also note some hints on local inertia–gravity wave generation by the stratospheric jet from the detection of shallow slow waves in the vicinity of its exit region.
Local time dependence of polar mesospheric clouds: A model study
The Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport model (MIMAS) is used to study local time (LT) variations of polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) in the Northern Hemisphere during the period from 1979 to 2013. We investigate the tidal behavior of brightness, altitude, and occurrence frequency and find a good agreement between model and lidar observations. At the peak of the PMC layer the mean ice radius varies from 35 to 45nm and the mean number density varies from 80 to 150cm−3 throughout the day. We also analyze PMCs in terms of ice water content (IWC) and show that only amplitudes of local time variations in IWC are sensitive to threshold conditions, whereas phases are conserved. In particular, relative local time variations decrease with larger thresholds. Local time variations also depend on latitude. In particular, absolute local time variations increase towards the pole. Furthermore, a phase shift exists towards the pole which is independent of the threshold value. In particular, the IWC maximum moves backward in time from 08:00LT at midlatitudes to 02:00LT at high latitudes. The persistent features of strong local time modulations in ice parameters are caused by local time structures in background temperature and water vapor. For a single year local time variations of temperature at 69°N are in a range of ±3K near 83km altitude. At sublimation altitudes the water vapor variation is about ±3.5ppmv, leading to a change in the saturation ratio by a factor of about 2 throughout the day.
The importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle
The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the surface, which is mainly controlled by the albedo of snow and ice. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the representation of snow albedo in the model. It is well known that the albedo of snow depends strongly on snow grain size and the content of light-absorbing impurities. Excluding either the snow aging effect or the dust darkening effect on snow albedo leads to an excessive ice build-up during glacial times and consequently to a failure in simulating deglaciation. While the effect of snow grain growth on snow albedo is well constrained, the albedo reduction due to the presence of dust in snow is much more uncertain because the light-absorbing properties of dust vary widely as a function of dust mineral composition. We also show that assuming slightly different optical properties of dust leads to very different ice sheet and climate evolutions in the model. Conversely, ice sheet evolution is less sensitive to the choice of ice albedo in the model. We conclude that a proper representation of snow albedo is a fundamental prerequisite for a successful simulation of glacial cycles.
Observation of Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities and gravity waves in the summer mesopause above Andenes in Northern Norway
We present observations obtained with the Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System (MAARSY) to investigate short-period wave-like features using polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSEs) as a tracer for the neutral dynamics. We conducted a multibeam experiment including 67 different beam directions during a 9-day campaign in June 2013. We identified two Kelvin–Helmholtz instability (KHI) events from the signal morphology of PMSE. The MAARSY observations are complemented by collocated meteor radar wind data to determine the mesoscale gravity wave activity and the vertical structure of the wind field above the PMSE. The KHIs occurred in a strong shear flow with Richardson numbers Ri <0.25. In addition, we observed 15 wave-like events in our MAARSY multibeam observations applying a sophisticated decomposition of the radial velocity measurements using volume velocity processing. We retrieved the horizontal wavelength, intrinsic frequency, propagation direction, and phase speed from the horizontally resolved wind variability for 15 events. These events showed horizontal wavelengths between 20 and 40km, vertical wavelengths between 5 and 10km, and rather high intrinsic phase speeds between 45 and 85ms−1 with intrinsic periods of 5–10min.
Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management: Evidence from four case studies in Africa
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.