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- ItemDIVA: An iterative method for building modular integrated models(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2005) Hinkel, J.Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world’s coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project’s beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project’s lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.
- ItemAnalysis of nucleation events in the European boundary layer using the regional aerosol-climate model REMO-HAM with a solar radiation-driven OH-proxy(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Mikkonen, S.; Hamed, A.; Hienola, A.I.; Birmili, W.; Kulmala, M.; Laaksonen, A.This work describes improvements in the regional aerosol–climate model REMO-HAM in order to simulate more realistically the process of atmospheric new particle formation (NPF). A new scheme was implemented to simulate OH radical concentrations using a proxy approach based on observations and also accounting for the effects of clouds upon OH concentrations. Second, the nucleation rate calculation was modified to directly simulate the formation rates of 3 nm particles, which removes some unnecessary steps in the formation rate calculations used earlier in the model. Using the updated model version, NPF over Europe was simulated for the periods 2003–2004 and 2008–2009. The statistics of the simulated particle formation events were subsequently compared to observations from 13 ground-based measurement sites. The new model shows improved agreement with the observed NPF rates compared to former versions and can simulate the event statistics realistically for most parts of Europe.
- ItemCloud condensation nuclei in polluted air and biomass burning smoke near the mega-city Guangzhou, China – Part 2: Size-resolved aerosol chemical composition, diurnal cycles, and externally mixed weakly CCN-active soot particles(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2011) Rose, D.; Gunthe, S.S.; Su, H.; Garland, R.M.; Yang, H.; Berghof, M.; Cheng, Y.F.; Wehner, B.; Achtert, P.; Nowak, A.; Wiedensohler, A.; Takegawa, N.; Kondo, Y.; Hu, M.; Zhang, Y.; Andreae, M.O.; Pöschl, U.Size-resolved chemical composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nucleus (CCN) activity of aerosol particles in polluted mega-city air and biomass burning smoke were measured during the PRIDE-PRD2006 campaign near Guangzhou, China, using an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), a volatility tandem differential mobility analyzer (VTDMA), and a continuous-flow CCN counter (DMT-CCNC). The size-dependence and temporal variations of the effective average hygroscopicity parameter for CCN-active particles (κa) could be parameterized as a function of organic and inorganic mass fractions (forg, finorg) determined by the AMS: κa,p=κorg·forg + κinorg·finorg. The characteristic κ values of organic and inorganic components were similar to those observed in other continental regions of the world: κorg≈0.1 and κinorg≈0.6. The campaign average κa values increased with particle size from ~0.25 at ~50 nm to ~0.4 at ~200 nm, while forg decreased with particle size. At ~50 nm, forg was on average 60% and increased to almost 100% during a biomass burning event. The VTDMA results and complementary aerosol optical data suggest that the large fractions of CCN-inactive particles observed at low supersaturations (up to 60% at S≤0.27%) were externally mixed weakly CCN-active soot particles with low volatility (diameter reduction <5% at 300 °C) and effective hygroscopicity parameters around κLV≈0.01. A proxy for the effective average hygroscopicity of the total ensemble of CCN-active particles including weakly CCN-active particles (κt) could be parameterized as a function of κa,p and the number fraction of low volatility particles determined by VTDMA (φLV): κt,p=κa,p−φLV·(κa,p−κLV). Based on κ values derived from AMS and VTDMA data, the observed CCN number concentrations (NCCN,S≈102–104 cm−3 at S = 0.068–0.47%) could be efficiently predicted from the measured particle number size distribution. The mean relative deviations between observed and predicted CCN concentrations were ~10% when using κt,p, and they increased to ~20% when using only κa,p. The mean relative deviations were not higher (~20%) when using an approximate continental average value of κ≈0.3, although the constant κ value cannot account for the observed temporal variations in particle composition and mixing state (diurnal cycles and biomass burning events). Overall, the results confirm that on a global and climate modeling scale an average value of κ≈0.3 can be used for approximate predictions of CCN number concentrations in continental boundary layer air when aerosol size distribution data are available without information about chemical composition. Bulk or size-resolved data on aerosol chemical composition enable improved CCN predictions resolving regional and temporal variations, but the composition data need to be highly accurate and complemented by information about particle mixing state to achieve high precision (relative deviations <20%).
- ItemChanges in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2010) Rammig, A.; Jonas, T.; Zimmermann, N.E.; Rixen, C.Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to affect plant phenology and growth. In a unique experiment, climatology and plant growth was monitored for almost a decade at 17 snow meteorological stations in different alpine regions along the Swiss Alps. Regression analyses revealed highly significant correlations between mean air temperature in May/June and snow melt out, onset of plant growth, and plant height. These correlations were used to project plant growth phenology for future climate conditions based on the gridded output of a set of regional climate models runs. Melt out and onset of growth were projected to occur on average 17 days earlier by the end of the century than in the control period from 1971–2000 under the future climate conditions of the low resolution climate model ensemble. Plant height and biomass production were expected to increase by 77% and 45%, respectively. The earlier melt out and onset of growth will probably cause a considerable shift towards higher growing plants and thus increased biomass. Our results represent the first quantitative and spatially explicit estimates of climate change impacts on future growing season length and the respective productivity of alpine plant communities in the Swiss Alps.
- ItemEstimating the near-surface permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Schneider von Deimling, T.; Meinshausen, M.; Levermann, A.; Huber, V.; Frieler, K.; Lawrence, D.M.; Brovkin, V.Thawing of permafrost and the associated release of carbon constitutes a positive feedback in the climate system, elevating the effect of anthropogenic GHG emissions on global-mean temperatures. Multiple factors have hindered the quantification of this feedback, which was not included in climate carbon-cycle models which participated in recent model intercomparisons (such as the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project – C4MIP) . There are considerable uncertainties in the rate and extent of permafrost thaw, the hydrological and vegetation response to permafrost thaw, the decomposition timescales of freshly thawed organic material, the proportion of soil carbon that might be emitted as carbon dioxide via aerobic decomposition or as methane via anaerobic decomposition, and in the magnitude of the high latitude amplification of global warming that will drive permafrost degradation. Additionally, there are extensive and poorly characterized regional heterogeneities in soil properties, carbon content, and hydrology. Here, we couple a new permafrost module to a reduced complexity carbon-cycle climate model, which allows us to perform a large ensemble of simulations. The ensemble is designed to span the uncertainties listed above and thereby the results provide an estimate of the potential strength of the feedback from newly thawed permafrost carbon. For the high CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), 33–114 GtC (giga tons of Carbon) are released by 2100 (68 % uncertainty range). This leads to an additional warming of 0.04–0.23 °C. Though projected 21st century permafrost carbon emissions are relatively modest, ongoing permafrost thaw and slow but steady soil carbon decomposition means that, by 2300, about half of the potentially vulnerable permafrost carbon stock in the upper 3 m of soil layer (600–1000 GtC) could be released as CO2, with an extra 1–4 % being released as methane. Our results also suggest that mitigation action in line with the lower scenario RCP3-PD could contain Arctic temperature increase sufficiently that thawing of the permafrost area is limited to 9–23 % and the permafrost-carbon induced temperature increase does not exceed 0.04–0.16 °C by 2300.
- ItemEvaluation of the shortwave cloud radiative effect over the ocean by use of ship and satellite observations(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Hanschmann, T.; Deneke, H.; Roebeling, R.; Macke, A.In this study the shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) over ocean calculated by the ECHAM 5 climate model is evaluated for the cloud property input derived from ship based measurements and satellite based estimates and compared to ship based radiation measurements. The ship observations yield cloud fraction, liquid water path from a microwave radiometer, cloud bottom height as well as temperature and humidity profiles from radiosonde ascents. Level-2 products of the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM~SAF) from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) have been used to characterize clouds. Within a closure study six different experiments have been defined to find the optimal set of measurements to calculate downward shortwave radiation (DSR) and the SWCRE from the model, and their results have been evaluated under seven different synoptic situations. Four of these experiments are defined to investigate the advantage of including the satellite-based cloud droplet effective radius as additional cloud property. The modeled SWCRE based on satellite retrieved cloud properties has a comparable accuracy to the modeled SWCRE based on ship data. For several cases, an improvement through introducing the satellite-based estimate of effective radius as additional information to the ship based data was found. Due to their different measuring characteristics, however, each dataset shows best results for different atmospheric conditions.
- ItemMultichannel analysis of correlation length of SEVIRI images around ground-based cloud observatories to determine their representativeness(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Slobodda, J.; Hünerbein, A.; Lindstrot, R.; Preusker, R.; Ebell, K.; Fischer, J.Images of measured radiance in different channels of the geostationary Meteosat-9 SEVIRI instrument are analysed with respect to the representativeness of the observations of eight cloud observatories in Europe (e.g. measurements from cloud radars or microwave radiometers). Cloudy situations are selected to get a time series for every pixel in a 300 km × 300 km area centred around each ground station. Then a cross correlation of each time series to the pixel nearest to the corresponding ground site is calculated. In the end a correlation length is calculated to define the representativeness. It is found that measurements in the visible and near infrared channels, which respond to cloud physical properties, are correlated in an area with a 1 to 4 km radius, while the thermal channels, that correspond to cloud top temperature, are correlated to a distance of about 20 km. This also points to a higher variability of the cloud microphysical properties inside a cloud than of the cloud top temperature. The correlation length even increases for the channels at 6.2, 7.3 and 9.7 μm. They respond to radiation from the upper atmospheric layers emitted by atmospheric gases and higher level clouds, which are more homogeneous than low-level clouds. Additionally, correlations at different distances, corresponding to the grid box sizes of forecast models, were compared. The results suggest the possibility of comparisons between instantaneous cloud observations from ground sites and regional forecast models and ground-based measurements. For larger distances typical for global models the correlations decrease, especially for short-wave measurements and corresponding cloud products. By comparing daily means, the correlation length of each station is increased to about 3 to 10 times the value of instantaneous measurements and also the comparability to models grows.
- ItemThe Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Overview and experimental design(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Tjernström, M.; Leck, C.; Birch, C.E.; Bottenheim, J.W.; Brooks, B.J.; Brooks, I.M.; Bäcklin, L.; Chang, R.Y.-W.; de Leeuw, G.; Di Liberto, L.; de la Rosa, S.; Granath, E.; Graus, M.; Hansel, A.; Heintzenberg, J.; Held, A.; Hind, A.; Johnston, P.; Knulst, J.; Martin, M.; Matrai, P.A.; Mauritsen, T.; Müller, M.; Norris, S.J.; Orellana, M.V.; Orsini, D.A.; Paatero, J.; Persson, P.O.G.; Gao, Q.; Rauschenberg, C.; Ristovski, Z.; Sedlar, J.; Shupe, M.D.; Sierau, B.; Sirevaag, A.; Sjogren, S.; Stetzer, O.; Swietlicki, E.; Szczodrak, M.; Vaattovaara, P.; Wahlberg, N.; Westberg, M.; Wheeler, C.R.The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than anywhere else on earth. Poorly understood feedback processes relating to Arctic clouds and aerosol–cloud interactions contribute to a poor understanding of the present changes in the Arctic climate system, and also to a large spread in projections of future climate in the Arctic. The problem is exacerbated by the paucity of research-quality observations in the central Arctic. Improved formulations in climate models require such observations, which can only come from measurements in situ in this difficult-to-reach region with logistically demanding environmental conditions. The Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) was the most extensive central Arctic Ocean expedition with an atmospheric focus during the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007–2008. ASCOS focused on the study of the formation and life cycle of low-level Arctic clouds. ASCOS departed from Longyearbyen on Svalbard on 2 August and returned on 9 September 2008. In transit into and out of the pack ice, four short research stations were undertaken in the Fram Strait: two in open water and two in the marginal ice zone. After traversing the pack ice northward, an ice camp was set up on 12 August at 87°21' N, 01°29' W and remained in operation through 1 September, drifting with the ice. During this time, extensive measurements were taken of atmospheric gas and particle chemistry and physics, mesoscale and boundary-layer meteorology, marine biology and chemistry, and upper ocean physics. ASCOS provides a unique interdisciplinary data set for development and testing of new hypotheses on cloud processes, their interactions with the sea ice and ocean and associated physical, chemical, and biological processes and interactions. For example, the first-ever quantitative observation of bubbles in Arctic leads, combined with the unique discovery of marine organic material, polymer gels with an origin in the ocean, inside cloud droplets suggests the possibility of primary marine organically derived cloud condensation nuclei in Arctic stratocumulus clouds. Direct observations of surface fluxes of aerosols could, however, not explain observed variability in aerosol concentrations, and the balance between local and remote aerosols sources remains open. Lack of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) was at times a controlling factor in low-level cloud formation, and hence for the impact of clouds on the surface energy budget. ASCOS provided detailed measurements of the surface energy balance from late summer melt into the initial autumn freeze-up, and documented the effects of clouds and storms on the surface energy balance during this transition. In addition to such process-level studies, the unique, independent ASCOS data set can and is being used for validation of satellite retrievals, operational models, and reanalysis data sets.
- ItemCarbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: A multi-model analysis(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2013) Joos, F.; Roth, R.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Peters, G.P.; Enting, I.G.; von Bloh, W.; Brovkin, V.; Burke, E.J.; Eby, M.; Edwards, N.R.; Friedrich, T.; Frölicher, T.L.; Halloran, P.R.; Holden, P.B.; Jones, C.; Kleinen, T.; Mackenzie, F.T.; Matsumoto, K.; Meinshausen, M.; Plattner, G.-K.; Reisinger, A.; Segschneider, J.; Shaffer, G.; Steinacher, M.; Strassmann, K.; Tanaka, K.; Timmermann, A.; Weaver, A.J.The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.
- ItemThe importance of snow albedo for ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2018) Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, AndreyThe surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the surface, which is mainly controlled by the albedo of snow and ice. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the representation of snow albedo in the model. It is well known that the albedo of snow depends strongly on snow grain size and the content of light-absorbing impurities. Excluding either the snow aging effect or the dust darkening effect on snow albedo leads to an excessive ice build-up during glacial times and consequently to a failure in simulating deglaciation. While the effect of snow grain growth on snow albedo is well constrained, the albedo reduction due to the presence of dust in snow is much more uncertain because the light-absorbing properties of dust vary widely as a function of dust mineral composition. We also show that assuming slightly different optical properties of dust leads to very different ice sheet and climate evolutions in the model. Conversely, ice sheet evolution is less sensitive to the choice of ice albedo in the model. We conclude that a proper representation of snow albedo is a fundamental prerequisite for a successful simulation of glacial cycles.