498 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 498
- ItemFracture-induced softening for large-scale ice dynamics(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Albrecht, T.; Levermann, A.Floating ice shelves can exert a retentive and hence stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet of Antarctica. However, this effect has been observed to diminish by the dynamic effects of fracture processes within the protective ice shelves, leading to accelerated ice flow and hence to a sea-level contribution. In order to account for the macroscopic effect of fracture processes on large-scale viscous ice dynamics (i.e., ice-shelf scale) we apply a continuum representation of fractures and related fracture growth into the prognostic Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) and compare the results to observations. To this end we introduce a higher order accuracy advection scheme for the transport of the two-dimensional fracture density across the regular computational grid. Dynamic coupling of fractures and ice flow is attained by a reduction of effective ice viscosity proportional to the inferred fracture density. This formulation implies the possibility of non-linear threshold behavior due to self-amplified fracturing in shear regions triggered by small variations in the fracture-initiation threshold. As a result of prognostic flow simulations, sharp across-flow velocity gradients appear in fracture-weakened regions. These modeled gradients compare well in magnitude and location with those in observed flow patterns. This model framework is in principle expandable to grounded ice streams and provides simple means of investigating climate-induced effects on fracturing (e.g., hydro fracturing) and hence on the ice flow. It further constitutes a physically sound basis for an enhanced fracture-based calving parameterization.
- ItemSimulation of the last glacial cycle with a coupled climate ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2010) Ganopolski, A.; Calov, R.; Claussen, M.A new version of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, which includes the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS, is used to simulate the last glacial cycle forced by variations of the Earth's orbital parameters and atmospheric concentration of major greenhouse gases. The climate and ice-sheet components of the model are coupled bi-directionally through a physically-based surface energy and mass balance interface. The model accounts for the time-dependent effect of aeolian dust on planetary and snow albedo. The model successfully simulates the temporal and spatial dynamics of the major Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets, including rapid glacial inception and strong asymmetry between the ice-sheet growth phase and glacial termination. Spatial extent and elevation of the ice sheets during the last glacial maximum agree reasonably well with palaeoclimate reconstructions. A suite of sensitivity experiments demonstrates that simulated ice-sheet evolution during the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to some parameters of the surface energy and mass-balance interface and dust module. The possibility of a considerable acceleration of the climate ice-sheet model is discussed.
- ItemNCIO 1.0: A simple Fortran NetCDF interface(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Robinson, A.; Perrette, M.The NetCDF (Network Common Data Form) library has become an indispensable tool for data and model output management in geoscience. However for simple tasks, particularly in Fortran, the complexity of native NetCDF functionality can be cumbersome. The NCIO (NetCDF Input/Output) module has been designed as an interface to the NetCDF library with simplicity and ease of use in mind. While this implies that some NetCDF functionality is masked from the user, the subroutines provided here are adequate for basic serial reading and writing tasks of up to 6-D data arrays along with corresponding data attributes. The code is available online via a GitHub repository (http://www.github.com/alex-robinson/ncio), which includes an example program to illustrate the approach.
- ItemA complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Boers, Niklas; Goswami, Bedartha; Ghil, MichaelAccurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records – such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings – as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5–52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval.
- ItemFrom cyclic ice streaming to Heinrich-like events: the grow-and-surge instability in the parallel ice sheet model(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2017) Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, AndersHere we report on a cyclic, physical ice-discharge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, simulating the flow of a three-dimensional, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system which periodically surges on a millennial timescale. The thermomechanically coupled model on 1 km horizontal resolution includes an enthalpy-based formulation of the thermodynamics, a nonlinear stress-balance-based sliding law and a very simple subglacial hydrology. The simulated unforced surging is characterized by rapid ice streaming through a bed trough, resulting in abrupt discharge of ice across the grounding line which is eventually calved into the ocean. We visualize the central feedbacks that dominate the subsequent phases of ice buildup, surge and stabilization which emerge from the interaction between ice dynamics, thermodynamics and the subglacial till layer. Results from the variation of surface mass balance and basal roughness suggest that ice sheets of medium thickness may be more susceptible to surging than relatively thin or thick ones for which the surge feedback loop is damped. We also investigate the influence of different basal sliding laws (ranging from purely plastic to nonlinear to linear) on possible surging. The presented mechanisms underlying our simulations of self-maintained, periodic ice growth and destabilization may play a role in large-scale ice-sheet surging, such as the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is associated with Heinrich events, and ice-stream shutdown and reactivation, such as observed in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica.
- ItemImplementation of multirate time integration methods for air pollution modelling(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Schlegel, M.; Knoth, O.; Arnold, M.; Wolke, R.Explicit time integration methods are characterised by a small numerical effort per time step. In the application to multiscale problems in atmospheric modelling, this benefit is often more than compensated by stability problems and step size restrictions resulting from stiff chemical reaction terms and from a locally varying Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition for the advection terms. Splitting methods may be applied to efficiently combine implicit and explicit methods (IMEX splitting). Complementarily multirate time integration schemes allow for a local adaptation of the time step size to the grid size. In combination, these approaches lead to schemes which are efficient in terms of evaluations of the right-hand side. Special challenges arise when these methods are to be implemented. For an efficient implementation, it is crucial to locate and exploit redundancies. Furthermore, the more complex programme flow may lead to computational overhead which, in the worst case, more than compensates the theoretical gain in efficiency. We present a general splitting approach which allows both for IMEX splittings and for local time step adaptation. The main focus is on an efficient implementation of this approach for parallel computation on computer clusters.
- ItemA new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2012) Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural lands. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. In contrast to the other land-use models linking economy and biophysics, crops are aggregated as a representative product in calories and intensification for the representative crop is a non-linear function of chemical inputs. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.
- ItemCoupled Northern Hemisphere permafrost-ice-sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2015) Willeit, M.; Ganopolski, A.Permafrost influences a number of processes which are relevant for local and global climate. For example, it is well known that permafrost plays an important role in global carbon and methane cycles. Less is known about the interaction between permafrost and ice sheets. In this study a permafrost module is included in the Earth system model CLIMBER-2, and the coupled Northern Hemisphere (NH) permafrost–ice-sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle is explored. The model performs generally well at reproducing present-day permafrost extent and thickness. Modeled permafrost thickness is sensitive to the values of ground porosity, thermal conductivity and geothermal heat flux. Permafrost extent at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) agrees well with reconstructions and previous modeling estimates. Present-day permafrost thickness is far from equilibrium over deep permafrost regions. Over central Siberia and the Arctic Archipelago permafrost is presently up to 200–500 m thicker than it would be at equilibrium. In these areas, present-day permafrost depth strongly depends on the past climate history and simulations indicate that deep permafrost has a memory of surface temperature variations going back to at least 800 ka. Over the last glacial cycle permafrost has a relatively modest impact on simulated NH ice sheet volume except at LGM, when including permafrost increases ice volume by about 15 m sea level equivalent in our model. This is explained by a delayed melting of the ice base from below by the geothermal heat flux when the ice sheet sits on a porous sediment layer and permafrost has to be melted first. Permafrost affects ice sheet dynamics only when ice extends over areas covered by thick sediments, which is the case at LGM.
- ItemSensitivity simulations with direct shortwave radiative forcing by aeolian dust during glacial cycles(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2014) Bauer, E.; Ganopolski, A.Possible feedback effects between aeolian dust, climate and ice sheets are studied for the first time with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity over the late Pleistocene period. Correlations between climate and dust deposition records suggest that aeolian dust potentially plays an important role for the evolution of glacial cycles. Here climatic effects from the dust direct radiative forcing (DRF) caused by absorption and scattering of solar radiation are investigated. Key elements controlling the dust DRF are the atmospheric dust distribution and the absorption-scattering efficiency of dust aerosols. Effective physical parameters in the description of these elements are varied within uncertainty ranges known from available data and detailed model studies. Although the parameters can be reasonably constrained, the simulated dust DRF spans a~wide uncertainty range related to the strong nonlinearity of the Earth system. In our simulations, the dust DRF is highly localized. Medium-range parameters result in negative DRF of several watts per square metre in regions close to major dust sources and negligible values elsewhere. In the case of high absorption efficiency, the local dust DRF can reach positive values and the global mean DRF can be insignificantly small. In the case of low absorption efficiency, the dust DRF can produce a significant global cooling in glacial periods, which leads to a doubling of the maximum glacial ice volume relative to the case with small dust DRF. DRF-induced temperature and precipitation changes can either be attenuated or amplified through a feedback loop involving the dust cycle. The sensitivity experiments suggest that depending on dust optical parameters, dust DRF has the potential to either damp or reinforce glacial–interglacial climate changes.
- ItemPALADYN v1.0, a comprehensive land surface-vegetation-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity(München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2016) Willeit, Matteo; Ganopolski, AndreyPALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies. The model treats in a consistent manner the interaction between atmosphere, terrestrial vegetation and soil through the fluxes of energy, water and carbon. Energy, water and carbon are conserved. PALADYN explicitly treats permafrost, both in physical processes and as an important carbon pool. It distinguishes nine surface types: five different vegetation types, bare soil, land ice, lake and ocean shelf. Including the ocean shelf allows the treatment of continuous changes in sea level and shelf area associated with glacial cycles. Over each surface type, the model solves the surface energy balance and computes the fluxes of sensible, latent and ground heat and upward shortwave and longwave radiation. The model includes a single snow layer. Vegetation and bare soil share a single soil column. The soil is vertically discretized into five layers where prognostic equations for temperature, water and carbon are consistently solved. Phase changes of water in the soil are explicitly considered. A surface hydrology module computes precipitation interception by vegetation, surface runoff and soil infiltration. The soil water equation is based on Darcy's law. Given soil water content, the wetland fraction is computed based on a topographic index. The temperature profile is also computed in the upper part of ice sheets and in the ocean shelf soil. Photosynthesis is computed using a light use efficiency model. Carbon assimilation by vegetation is coupled to the transpiration of water through stomatal conductance. PALADYN includes a dynamic vegetation module with five plant functional types competing for the grid cell share with their respective net primary productivity. PALADYN distinguishes between mineral soil carbon, peat carbon, buried carbon and shelf carbon. Each soil carbon type has its own soil carbon pools generally represented by a litter, a fast and a slow carbon pool in each soil layer. Carbon can be redistributed between the layers by vertical diffusion and advection. For the vegetated macro surface type, decomposition is a function of soil temperature and soil moisture. Carbon in permanently frozen layers is assigned a long turnover time which effectively locks carbon in permafrost. Carbon buried below ice sheets and on flooded ocean shelves is treated differently. The model also includes a dynamic peat module. PALADYN includes carbon isotopes 13C and 14C, which are tracked through all carbon pools. Isotopic discrimination is modelled only during photosynthesis. A simple methane module is implemented to represent methane emissions from anaerobic carbon decomposition in wetlands (including peatlands) and flooded ocean shelf. The model description is accompanied by a thorough model evaluation in offline mode for the present day and the historical period.