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- ItemImproving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2017) Challinor, Andrew J.; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-KristinCrop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1. Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk? 2. Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output. 3. Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper.
- ItemChallenges and opportunities in mapping land use intensity globally(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2013) Kuemmerle, Tobias; Erb, Karlheinz; Meyfroidt, Patrick; Müller, Daniel; Verburg, Peter H.; Estel, Stephan; Haberl, Helmut; Hostert, Patrick; Jepsen, Martin R.; Kastner, Thomas; Levers, Christian; Lindner, Marcus; Plutzar, Christoph; Verkerk, Pieter Johannes; van der Zanden, Emma H.; Reenberg, AnetteFuture increases in land-based production will need to focus more on sustainably intensifying existing production systems. Unfortunately, our understanding of the global patterns of land use intensity is weak, partly because land use intensity is a complex, multidimensional term, and partly because we lack appropriate datasets to assess land use intensity across broad geographic extents. Here, we review the state of the art regarding approaches for mapping land use intensity and provide a comprehensive overview of available global-scale datasets on land use intensity. We also outline major challenges and opportunities for mapping land use intensity for cropland, grazing, and forestry systems, and identify key issues for future research.
- ItemA conceptual framework for analysing and measuring land-use intensity(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2013) Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Lindner, Marcus; Müller, Daniel; Verburg, Peter H.; Reenberg, AnetteLarge knowledge gaps currently exist that limit our ability to understand and characterise dynamics and patterns of land-use intensity: in particular, a comprehensive conceptual framework and a system of measurement are lacking. This situation hampers the development of a sound understanding of the mechanisms, determinants, and constraints underlying changes in land-use intensity. On the basis of a review of approaches for studying land-use intensity, we propose a conceptual framework to quantify and analyse land-use intensity. This framework integrates three dimensions: (a) input intensity, (b) output intensity, and (c) the associated system-level impacts of land- based production (e.g. changes in carbon storage or biodiversity). The systematic development of indicators across these dimensions would provide opportunities for the systematic analyses of the trade-offs, synergies and opportunity costs of land-use intensification strategies.
- ItemSPARTA – Solver for Polarized Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Applications: Introduction and application to Saharan dust fields(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) Barlakas, Vasileios; Macke, Andreas; Wendisch, ManfredNon-spherical particles in the atmosphere absorb and scatter solar radiation. They change the polarization state of solar radiation depending on their shape, size, chemical composition and orientation. To quantify polarization effects, a new three-dimensional (3D) vector radiative transfer model, SPARTA (Solver for Polarized Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Applications) is introduced and validated against benchmark results. SPARTA employs the statistical forward Monte Carlo technique for efficient column-response pixel-based radiance calculations including polarization for 3D inhomogeneous cloudless and cloudy atmospheres. A sensitivity study has been carried out and exemplarily results are presented for two lidar-based mineral dust fields. The scattering and absorption properties of the dust particles have been computed for spheroids and irregular shaped particles. Polarized radiance fields in two-dimensional (2D) and one-dimensional (1D) inhomogeneous Saharan dust fields have been calculated at 532 nm wavelength. The domain-averaged results of the normalized reflected radiance are almost identical for the 1D and 2D modes. In the areas with large spatial gradient in optical thickness with expected significant horizontal photon transport, the radiance fields of the 2D mode differ by about ±12% for the first Stokes component (radiance, I) and ±8% for the second Stokes component (linear polarization, Q) from the fields of the 1D mode.
- ItemMixing state of atmospheric particles over the North China Plain(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2015) Zhang, S.L.; Ma, N.; Kecorius, S.; Wang, P.C.; Hu, M.; Wang, Z.B.; Größ, J.; Wu, Z.J.; Wiedensohler, A.In this unique processing study, the mixing state of ambient submicron aerosol particles in terms of hygroscopicity and volatility was investigated with a Hygroscopicity Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer and a Volatility Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer. The measurements were conducted at a regional atmospheric observational site in the North China Plain (NCP) from 8 July to 9 August, 2013. Multimodal patterns were observed in the probability density functions of the hygroscopicity parameter κ and the shrink factor, indicating that ambient particles are mostly an external mixture of particles with different hygroscopicity and volatility. Linear relationships were found between the number fraction of hydrophobic and non-volatile populations, reflecting the dominance of soot in hydrophobic and non-volatile particles. The number fraction of non-volatile particles is lower than that of hydrophobic particles in most cases, indicating that a certain fraction of hydrophobic particles is volatile. Distinct diurnal patterns were found for the number fraction of the hydrophobic and non-volatile particles, with a higher level at nighttime and a lower level during the daytime. The result of air mass classification shows that aerosol particles in air masses coming from north with high moving speed have a high number fraction of hydrophobic/non-volatile population, and are more externally mixed. Only minor differences can be found between the measured aerosol properties for the rest of the air masses. With abundant precursor in the NCP, no matter where the air mass originates, as far as it stays in the NCP for a certain time, aerosol particles may get aged and mixed with newly emitted particles in a short time.
- ItemAssessment of the MACC reanalysis and its influence as chemical boundary conditions for regional air quality modeling in AQMEII-2(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2015) Giordano, L.; Brunner, D.; Flemming, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Im, U.; Bianconi, R.; Badia, A.; Balzarini, A.; Baró, R.; Hirtl, M.; Honzak, L.; Jorba, O.; Knote, C.; Kuenen, J.J.P.; Makar, P.A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Neal, L.; Pérez, J.L.; Pirovano, G.; Pouliot, G.; San José, R.; Savage, N.; Schröder, W.; Sokhi, R.S.; Syrakov, D.; Torian, A.; Tuccella, P.; Werhahn, J.; Wolke, R.; Yahya, K.; Žabkar, R.; Zhang, Y.; Galmarini, S.The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) has now reached its second phase which is dedicated to the evaluation of online coupled chemistry-meteorology models. Sixteen modeling groups from Europe and five from North America have run regional air quality models to simulate the year 2010 over one European and one North American domain. The MACC re-analysis has been used as chemical initial (IC) and boundary conditions (BC) by all participating regional models in AQMEII-2. The aim of the present work is to evaluate the MACC re-analysis along with the participating regional models against a set of ground-based measurements (O3, CO, NO, NO2, SO2, SO42−) and vertical profiles (O3 and CO). Results indicate different degrees of agreement between the measurements and the MACC re-analysis, with an overall better performance over the North American domain. The influence of BC on regional air quality simulations is analyzed in a qualitative way by contrasting model performance for the MACC re-analysis with that for the regional models. This approach complements more quantitative approaches documented in the literature that often have involved sensitivity simulations but typically were limited to only one or only a few regional scale models. Results suggest an important influence of the BC on ozone for which the underestimation in winter in the MACC re-analysis is mimicked by the regional models. For CO, it is found that background concentrations near the domain boundaries are rather close to observations while those over the interior of the two continents are underpredicted by both MACC and the regional models over Europe but only by MACC over North America. This indicates that emission differences between the MACC re-analysis and the regional models can have a profound impact on model performance and points to the need for harmonization of inputs in future linked global/regional modeling studies.
- ItemUncertainties of simulated aerosol optical properties induced by assumptions on aerosol physical and chemical properties: An AQMEII-2 perspective(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2014) Curci, G.; Hogrefe, C.; Bianconi, R.; Im, U.; Balzarini, A.; Baró, R.; Brunner, D.; Forkel, R.; Giordano, L.; Hirtl, M.; Honzak, L.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Knote, C.; Langer, M.; Makar, P.A.; Pirovano, G.; Pérez, J.L.; San José, R.; Syrakov, D.; Tuccella, P.; Werhahn, J.; Wolke, R.; Žabkar, R.; Zhang, J.; Galmarini, S.The calculation of aerosol optical properties from aerosol mass is a process subject to uncertainty related to necessary assumptions on the treatment of the chemical species mixing state, density, refractive index, and hygroscopic growth. In the framework of the AQMEII-2 model intercomparison, we used the bulk mass profiles of aerosol chemical species sampled over the locations of AERONET stations across Europe and North America to calculate the aerosol optical properties under a range of common assumptions for all models. Several simulations with parameters perturbed within a range of observed values are carried out for July 2010 and compared in order to infer the assumptions that have the largest impact on the calculated aerosol optical properties. We calculate that the most important factor of uncertainty is the assumption about the mixing state, for which we estimate an uncertainty of 30–35% on the simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA). The choice of the core composition in the core–shell representation is of minor importance for calculation of AOD, while it is critical for the SSA. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of mixing state choice on the calculation of the asymmetry parameter is the order of 10%. Other factors of uncertainty tested here have a maximum average impact of 10% each on calculated AOD, and an impact of a few percent on SSA and g. It is thus recommended to focus further research on a more accurate representation of the aerosol mixing state in models, in order to have a less uncertain simulation of the related optical properties.
- ItemComparative analysis of meteorological performance of coupled chemistry-meteorology models in the context of AQMEII phase 2(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2014) Brunner, Dominik; Savage, Nicholas; Jorba, Oriol; Eder, Brian; Giordano, Lea; Badia, Alba; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baró, Rocío; Bianconi, Roberto; Chemel, Charles; Curci, Gabriele; Forkel, Renate; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro; Hirtl, Marcus; Hodzic, Alma; Honzak, Luka; Im, Ulas; Knote, Christoph; Makar, Paul; Manders-Groot, Astrid; van Meijgaard, Erik; Neal, Lucy; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guido; San Jose, Roberto; Schröder, Wolfram; Sokhi, Ranjeet S.; Syrakov, Dimiter; Torian, Alfreida; Tuccella, Paolo; Werhahn, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Yahya, Khairunnisa; Zabkar, Rahela; Zhang, Yang; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, StefanoAir pollution simulations critically depend on the quality of the underlying meteorology. In phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-2), thirteen modeling groups from Europe and four groups from North America operating eight different regional coupled chemistry and meteorology models participated in a coordinated model evaluation exercise. Each group simulated the year 2010 for a domain covering either Europe or North America or both. Here were present an operational analysis of model performance with respect to key meteorological variables relevant for atmospheric chemistry processes and air quality. These parameters include temperature and wind speed at the surface and in the vertical profile, incoming solar radiation at the ground, precipitation, and planetary boundary layer heights. A similar analysis was performed during AQMEII phase 1 (Vautard et al., 2012) for offline air quality models not directly coupled to the meteorological model core as the model systems investigated here. Similar to phase 1, we found significant overpredictions of 10-m wind speeds by most models, more pronounced during night than during daytime. The seasonal evolution of temperature was well captured with monthly mean biases below 2 K over all domains. Solar incoming radiation, precipitation and PBL heights, on the other hand, showed significant spread between models and observations suggesting that major challenges still remain in the simulation of meteorological parameters relevant for air quality and for chemistry–climate interactions at the regional scale.
- ItemA European aerosol phenomenology-5: Climatology of black carbon optical properties at 9 regional background sites across Europe(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) Zanatta, M.; Gysel, M.; Bukowiecki, N.; Müller, T.; Weingartner, E.; Areskoug, H.; Fiebig, M.; Yttri, K.E.; Mihalopoulos, N.; Kouvarakis, G.; Beddows, D.; Harrison, R.M.; Cavalli, F.; Putaud, J.P.; Spindler, G.; Wiedensohler, A.; Alastuey, A.; Pandolfi, M.; Sellegri, K.; Swietlicki, E.; Jaffrezo, J.L.; Baltensperger, U.; Laj, P.A reliable assessment of the optical properties of atmospheric black carbon is of crucial importance for an accurate estimation of radiative forcing. In this study we investigated the spatio-temporal variability of the mass absorption cross-section (MAC) of atmospheric black carbon, defined as light absorption coefficient (σap) divided by elemental carbon mass concentration (mEC). σap and mEC have been monitored at supersites of the ACTRIS network for a minimum period of one year. The 9 rural background sites considered in this study cover southern Scandinavia, central Europe and the Mediterranean. σap was determined using filter based absorption photometers and mEC using a thermal-optical technique. Homogeneity of the data-set was ensured by harmonization of all involved methods and instruments during extensive intercomparison exercises at the European Center for Aerosol Calibration (ECAC). Annual mean values of σap at a wavelength of 637 nm vary between 0.66 and 1.3 Mm−1 in southern Scandinavia, 3.7–11 Mm−1 in Central Europe and the British Isles, and 2.3–2.8 Mm−1 in the Mediterranean. Annual mean values of mEC vary between 0.084 and 0.23 μg m−3 in southern Scandinavia, 0.28–1.1 in Central Europe and the British Isles, and 0.22–0.26 in the Mediterranean. Both σap and mEC in southern Scandinavia and Central Europe have a distinct seasonality with maxima during the cold season and minima during summer, whereas at the Mediterranean sites an opposite trend was observed. Annual mean MAC values were quite similar across all sites and the seasonal variability was small at most sites. Consequently, a MAC value of 10.0 m2 g−1 (geometric standard deviation = 1.33) at a wavelength of 637 nm can be considered to be representative of the mixed boundary layer at European background sites, where BC is expected to be internally mixed to a large extent. The observed spatial variability is rather small compared to the variability of values in previous literature, indicating that the harmonization efforts resulted in substantially increased precision of the reported MAC. However, absolute uncertainties of the reported MAC values remain as high as ± 30–70% due to the lack of appropriate reference methods and calibration materials. The mass ratio between elemental carbon and non-light-absorbing matter was used as a proxy for the thickness of coatings around the BC cores, in order to assess the influence of the mixing state on the MAC of BC. Indeed, the MAC was found to increase with increasing values of the coating thickness proxy. This provides evidence that coatings do increase the MAC of atmospheric BC to some extent, which is commonly referred to as lensing effect.
- ItemAir quality in the German–Czech border region: A focus on harmful fractions of PM and ultrafine particles(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2015) Schladitz, Alexander; Leníček, Jan; Beneš, Ivan; Kováč, Martin; Skorkovský, Jiří; Soukup, Aleš; Jandlová, Jana; Poulain, Laurent; Plachá, Helena; Löschau, Gunter; Wiedensohler, AlfredA comprehensive air quality study has been carried out at two urban background sites in Annaberg-Buchholz (Germany) and Ústí nad Labem (Czech Republic) in the German–Czech border region between January 2012 and June 2014. Special attention was paid to quantify harmful fractions of particulate matter (PM) and ultrafine particle number concentration (UFP) from solid fuel combustion and vehicular traffic. Source type contributions of UFP were quantified by using the daily concentration courses of UFP and nitrogen oxide. Two different source apportionment techniques were used to quantify relative and absolute mass contributions: positive matrix factorization for total PM2.5 and elemental carbon in PM2.5 and chemical mass balance for total PM1 and organic carbon in PM1. Contributions from solid fuel combustion strongly differed between the non-heating period (April–September) and the heating period (October–March). Major sources of solid fuel combustion in this study were wood and domestic coal combustion, while the proportion of industrial coal combustion was low (<3%). In Ústí nad Labem combustion of domestic brown coal was the most important source of organic carbon ranging from 34% to 43%. Wood combustion was an important source of organic carbon in Annaberg-Buchholz throughout the year. Heavy metals and less volatile polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in the accumulation mode were related to solid fuel combustion with enhanced concentrations during the heating period. In contrast, vehicular PAH emissions were allocated to the Aitken mode. Only in Ústí nad Labem a significant contribution of photochemical new particle formation (e.g. from sulfur dioxide) to UFP of almost 50% was observed during noontime. UFPs from traffic emissions (nucleation particles) and primary emitted soot particles dominated at both sites during the rest of the day. The methodology of a combined source apportionment of UFP and PM can be adapted to other regions of the world with similar problems of atmospheric pollution to calculate the relative risk in epidemiological health studies for different sub-fractions of PM and UFP. This will enhance the meaningfulness of published relative risks in health studies based on total PM and UFP number concentrations..