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Evaluation of Expert Reports to Quantify the Exploration Risk for Geothermal Projects in Germany
The development of deep geothermal energy sources in Germany still faces many uncertainties and high upfront investment costs. Methodical approaches to assess the exploration risk are thus of major importance for geothermal project development. Since 2002, expert reports to quantify the exploration risk for geothermal projects in Germany were carried out. These reports served as a basis for insurance contracts covering the exploration risk. Using data from wells drilled in the meantime, the reports were evaluated and the stated probabilities compared with values actually reached.
Variability in the mass absorption cross section of black carbon (BC) aerosols is driven by BC internal mixing state at a central European background site (Melpitz, Germany) in winter
Properties of atmospheric black carbon (BC) particles were characterized during a field experiment at a rural background site (Melpitz, Germany) in February 2017. BC absorption at a wavelength of 870 nm was measured by a photoacoustic extinctiometer, and BC physical properties (BC mass concentration, core size distribution and coating thickness) were measured by a single-particle soot photometer (SP2). Additionally, a catalytic stripper was used to intermittently remove BC coatings by alternating between ambient and thermo-denuded conditions. From these data the mass absorption cross section of BC (MACBC) and its enhancement factor (EMAC) were inferred for essentially waterfree aerosol as present after drying to low relative humidity (RH). Two methods were applied independently to investigate the coating effect on EMAC: A correlation method (MACBC; ambient vs. BC coating thickness) and a denuding method (MACBC; ambient vs. MACBC; denuded). Observed EMAC values varied from 1.0 to 1.6 (lower limit from denuding method) or 1:2 to 1.9 (higher limit from correlation method), with the mean coating volume fraction ranging from 54% to 78% in the dominating mass equivalent BC core diameter range of 200?220 nm.MACBC and EMAC were strongly correlated with coating thickness of BC. By contrast, other potential drivers of EMAC variability, such as different BC sources (air mass origin and absorption Angström exponent), coating composition (ratio of inorganics to organics) and BC core size distribution, had only minor effects. These results for ambient BC measured at Melpitz during winter show that the lensing effect caused by coatings on BC is the main driver of the variations in MACBC and EMAC, while changes in other BC particle properties such as source, BC core size or coating composition play only minor roles at this rural background site with a large fraction of aged particles. Indirect evidence suggests that potential dampening of the lensing effect due to unfavorable morphology was most likely small or even negligible.
Combined rock slope stability and shallow landslide susceptibility assessment of the Jasmund cliff area (Rügen Island, Germany)
In this contribution we evaluated both the structurally-controlled failure susceptibility of the fractured Cretaceous chalk rocks and the topographically-controlled shallow landslide susceptibility of the overlying glacial sediments for the Jasmund cliff area on Rügen Island, Germany. We employed a combined methodology involving spatially distributed kinematical rock slope failure testing with tectonic fabric data, and both physically- and inventory-based shallow landslide susceptibility analysis. The rock slope failure susceptibility model identifies areas of recent cliff collapses, confirming its value in predicting the locations of future failures. The model reveals that toppling is the most important failure type in the Cretaceous chalk rocks of the area. The shallow landslide susceptibility analysis involves a physically-based slope stability evaluation which utilizes material strength and hydraulic conductivity data, and a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis exploiting landslide inventory data and thematic information on ground conditioning factors. Both models show reasonable success rates when evaluated with the available inventory data, and an attempt was made to combine the individual models to prepare a map displaying both terrain instability and landslide susceptibility. This combination highlights unstable cliff portions lacking discrete landslide areas as well as cliff sections highly affected by past landslide events. Through a spatial integration of the rock slope failure susceptibility model with the combined shallow landslide assessment we produced a comprehensive landslide susceptibility map for the Jasmund cliff area.
Zero-Offset VSP Monitoring of CO2Storage: Impedance Inversion and Wedge Modelling at the Ketzin Pilot Site
At the CO2 storage pilot site near the town of Ketzin (35 km west of Berlin, Germany) the sandstone reservoir at 630 m–650 m depth is thin and heterogeneous. The time-lapse analysis of zero-offset VSP measurements shows that CO2-induced amplitude changes can be observed on near-well corridor stacks. Further, we investigate whether CO2-induced amplitude changes in the monitoring data can be used to derive geometrical and petrophysical parameters governing the migration of CO2 within a brine saturated sandstone aquifer. 2D seismic-elastic modelling is done to test the processing workflow and to perform a wedge modelling study for estimation of the vertical expansion of the CO2 plume. When using the NRMS error as a measure for the similarity between the modelled and recorded repeat traces, the best match is achieved for a plume thickness of 6-7 m within the reservoir sandstone of 8 m thickness. With band limited impedance inversion a velocity reduction at the top of the reservoir of 30%, influenced by casing reverberations as well as CO2 injection, is found. The relation of seismic amplitude to CO2 saturated layer thickness and CO2-induced changes in P-wave velocities are important parameters for the quantification of the injected CO2 volume.
Identification and source attribution of organic compounds in ultrafine particles near Frankfurt International Airport
Analysing the composition of ambient ultrafine particles (UFPs) is a challenging task due to the low mass and chemical complexity of small particles, yet it is a prerequisite for the identification of particle sources and the assessment of potential health risks. Here, we show the molecular characterization of UFPs, based on cascade impactor (Nano-MOUDI) samples that were collected at an air quality monitoring station near one of Europe's largest airports, in Frankfurt, Germany. At this station, particle-size-distribution measurements show an enhanced number concentration of particles smaller than 50 nm during airport operating hours. We sampled the lower UFP fraction (0.010-0.018, 0.018-0.032, 0.032-0.056 classCombining double low lineinline-formula/m) when the air masses arrived from the airport. We developed an optimized filter extraction procedure using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) for compound separation and a heated electrospray ionization (HESI) source with an Orbitrap high-resolution mass spectrometer (HRMS) as a detector for organic compounds. A non-Target screening detected classCombining double low lineinline-formulag1/4200/ organic compounds in the UFP fraction with sample-To-blank ratios larger than 5. We identified the largest signals as homologous series of pentaerythritol esters (PEEs) and trimethylolpropane esters (TMPEs), which are base stocks of aircraft lubrication oils. We unambiguously attribute the majority of detected compounds to jet engine lubrication oils by matching retention times, high-resolution and accurate mass measurements, and comparing tandem mass spectrometry (MS classCombining double low lineinline-formula2/) fragmentation patterns between both ambient samples and commercially available jet oils. For each UFP stage, we created molecular fingerprints to visualize the complex chemical composition of the organic fraction and their average carbon oxidation state. These graphs underline the presence of the homologous series of PEEs and TMPEs and the appearance of jet oil additives (e.g.Tricresyl phosphate, TCP). Targeted screening of TCP confirmed the absence of the harmful tri-iortho/i isomer, while we identified a thermal transformation product of TMPE-based lubrication oil (trimethylolpropane phosphate, TMP-P). Even though a quantitative determination of the identified compounds is limited, the presented method enables the qualitative detection of molecular markers for jet engine lubricants in UFPs and thus strongly improves the source apportionment of UFPs near airports./p. © 2021 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
Contrasting ice formation in Arctic clouds: surface-coupled vs. surface-decoupled clouds
In the Arctic summer of 2017 (1 June to 16 July) measurements with the OCEANET-Atmosphere facility were performed during the Polarstern cruise PS106. OCEANET comprises amongst other instruments the multiwavelength polarization lidar PollyXT_OCEANET and for PS106 was complemented with a vertically pointed 35 GHz cloud radar. In the scope of the presented study, the influence of cloud height and surface coupling on the probability of clouds to contain and form ice is investigated. Polarimetric lidar data were used for the detection of the cloud base and the identification of the thermodynamic phase. Both radar and lidar were used to detect cloud top. Radiosonde data were used to derive the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere and the clouds. The analyzed data set shows a significant impact of the surface-coupling state on the probability of ice formation. Surface-coupled clouds were identified by a quasi-constant potential temperature profile from the surface up to liquid layer base. Within the same minimum cloud temperature range, ice-containing clouds have been observed more frequently than surface-decoupled clouds by a factor of up to 6 (temperature intervals between -7.5 and -5 C, 164 vs. 27 analyzed intervals of 30 min). The frequency of occurrence of surface-coupled ice-containing clouds was found to be 2-3 times higher (e.g., 82% vs. 35% between -7.5 and -5 C). These findings provide evidence that above -10 C heterogeneous ice formation in Arctic mixed-phase clouds occurs by a factor of 2-6 more often when the cloud layer is coupled to the surface. In turn, for minimum cloud temperatures below -15 C, the frequency of ice-containing clouds for coupled and decoupled conditions approached the respective curve for the central European site of Leipzig, Germany (51 N, 12 E). This corroborates the hypothesis that the free-tropospheric ice nucleating particle (INP) reservoir over the Arctic is controlled by continental aerosol. Two sensitivity studies, also using the cloud radar for detection of ice particles and applying a modified coupling state detection, both confirmed the findings, albeit with a lower magnitude. Possible explanations for the observations are discussed by considering recent in situ measurements of INP in the Arctic, of which much higher concentrations were found in the surface-coupled atmosphere in close vicinity to the ice shore.
Structural analysis of S-wave seismics around an urban sinkhole: evidence of enhanced dissolution in a strike-slip fault zone
In November 2010, a large sinkhole opened up in the urban area of Schmalkalden, Germany. To determine the key factors which benefited the development of this collapse structure and therefore the dissolution, we carried out several shear-wave reflection-seismic profiles around the sinkhole. In the seismic sections we see evidence of the Mesozoic tectonic movement in the form of a NW–SE striking, dextral strike-slip fault, known as the Heßleser Fault, which faulted and fractured the subsurface below the town. The strike-slip faulting created a zone of small blocks ( < 100 m in size), around which steep-dipping normal faults, reverse faults and a dense fracture network serve as fluid pathways for the artesian-confined groundwater. The faults also acted as barriers for horizontal groundwater flow perpendicular to the fault planes. Instead groundwater flows along the faults which serve as conduits and forms cavities in the Permian deposits below ca. 60 m depth. Mass movements and the resulting cavities lead to the formation of sinkholes and dissolution-induced depressions. Since the processes are still ongoing, the occurrence of a new sinkhole cannot be ruled out. This case study demonstrates how S-wave seismics can characterize a sinkhole and, together with geological information, can be used to study the processes that result in sinkhole formation, such as a near-surface fault zone located in soluble rocks. The more complex the fault geometry and interaction between faults, the more prone an area is to sinkhole occurrence.
Experimental assessment of a micro-pulse lidar system in comparison with reference lidar measurements for aerosol optical properties retrieval
Simultaneous observations of a polarized micro-pulse lidar (P-MPL) system and two reference European Aerosol Research Lidar Network lidars running at the Leipzig site Germany, 51.4g gN, 12.4g gE; 125gmga.s.l.) were performed during a comprehensive 2-month field intercomparison campaign in summer 2019. An experimental assessment regarding both the overlap (OVP) correction of the P-MPL signal profiles and the volume linear depolarization ratio (VLDR) analysis, together with its impact on the retrieval of the aerosol optical properties, is achieved; the experimental procedure used is also described. The optimal lidar-specific OVP function is experimentally determined, highlighting that the one delivered by the P-MPL manufacturer cannot be used long. Among the OVP functions examined, the averaged function between those obtained from the comparison of the P-MPL observations with those of the other two reference lidars seems to be the best proxy at both near- and far-field ranges. In addition, the impact of the OVP function on the accuracy of the retrieved profiles of the total particle backscatter coefficient (PBC) and the particle linear depolarization ratio (PLDR) is examined. The VLDR profile is obtained and compared with that derived from the reference lidar, showing that it needs to be corrected by a small offset value with good accuracy. Once P-MPL measurements are optimally (OVP, VLDR) corrected, both the PBC and PLDR profiles can be accurately derived and are in good agreement with reference aerosol retrievals. Overall, as a systematic requirement for lidar systems, an adequate OVP function determination and VLDR testing analysis needs to be performed on a regular basis to correct the P-MPL measurements in order to derive suitable aerosol products. A dust event observed in Leipzig in June 2019 is used for illustration.
Changes in black carbon emissions over Europe due to COVID-19 lockdowns
Following the emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) responsible for COVID-19 in December 2019 in Wuhan (China) and its spread to the rest of the world, the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic in March 2020. Without effective treatment in the initial pandemic phase, social distancing and mandatory quarantines were introduced as the only available preventative measure. In contrast to the detrimental societal impacts, air quality improved in all countries in which strict lockdowns were applied, due to lower pollutant emissions. Here we investigate the effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe on ambient black carbon (BC), which affects climate and damages health, using in situ observations from 17 European stations in a Bayesian inversion framework. BC emissions declined by 23 kt in Europe (20 % in Italy, 40 % in Germany, 34 % in Spain, 22 % in France) during lockdowns compared to the same period in the previous 5 years, which is partially attributed to COVID-19 measures. BC temporal variation in the countries enduring the most drastic restrictions showed the most distinct lockdown impacts. Increased particle light absorption in the beginning of the lockdown, confirmed by assimilated satellite and remote sensing data, suggests residential combustion was the dominant BC source. Accordingly, in central and Eastern Europe, which experienced lower than average temperatures, BC was elevated compared to the previous 5 years. Nevertheless, an average decrease of 11 % was seen for the whole of Europe compared to the start of the lockdown period, with the highest peaks in France (42 %), Germany (21 %), UK (13 %), Spain (11 %) and Italy (8 %). Such a decrease was not seen in the previous years, which also confirms the impact of COVID-19 on the European emissions of BC.
Transboundary geophysical mapping of geological elements and salinity distribution critical for the assessment of future sea water intrusion in response to sea level rise
Geophysical techniques are increasingly being used as tools for characterising the subsurface, and they are generally required to develop subsurface models that properly delineate the distribution of aquifers and aquitards, salt/freshwater interfaces, and geological structures that affect groundwater flow. In a study area covering 730 km2 across the border between Germany and Denmark, a combination of an airborne electromagnetic survey (performed with the SkyTEM system), a high-resolution seismic survey and borehole logging has been used in an integrated mapping of important geological, physical and chemical features of the subsurface. The spacing between flight lines is 200–250 m which gives a total of about 3200 line km. About 38 km of seismic lines have been collected. Faults bordering a graben structure, buried tunnel valleys, glaciotectonic thrust complexes, marine clay units, and sand aquifers are all examples of geological structures mapped by the geophysical data that control groundwater flow and to some extent hydrochemistry. Additionally, the data provide an excellent picture of the salinity distribution in the area and thus provide important information on the salt/freshwater boundary and the chemical status of groundwater. Although the westernmost part of the study area along the North Sea coast is saturated with saline water and the TEM data therefore are strongly influenced by the increased electrical conductivity there, buried valleys and other geological elements are still revealed. The mapped salinity distribution indicates preferential flow paths through and along specific geological structures within the area. The effects of a future sea level rise on the groundwater system and groundwater chemistry are discussed with special emphasis on the importance of knowing the existence, distribution and geometry of the mapped geological elements, and their control on the groundwater salinity distribution is assessed.