2014, Stagl, J., Mayr, E., Koch, H., Hattermann, F.F., Huang, S.

For the management of protected areas knowledge about the water regime plays a very important role, in particular in areas with lakes, wetlands, marches or floodplains. The local hydrological conditions depend widely on temporal and spatial variations of the main components of the hydrologic cycle and physiographic conditions on site. To preserve a favourable conservation status under changing climatic conditions park managers require information about potential impacts of climate change in their area. The following chapter provides an overview of how climate change affects the hydrological regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. The hydrological impacts for the protected areas are area-specific and vary from region to region. Generally, an increase in temperature enhances the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus, leads to an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Key changes in the hydrological system include alterations in the seasonal distribution, magnitude and duration of precipitation and evapotranspiration. This may lead to changes in the water storage, surface runoff, soil moisture and seasonal snow packs as well as to modifications in the mass balance of Central European glaciers. Partly, water resources management can help to counterbalance effects of climate change on stream flow and water availability.

2007, Luderer, G., Trentmann, J., Hungershöfer, K., Herzog, M., Fromm, M., Andreae, M.O.

Deep convection induced by large forest fires is an efficient mechanism for transport of aerosol particles and trace gases into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). For many pyro-cumulonimbus clouds (pyroCbs) as well as other cases of severe convection without fire forcing, radiometric observations of cloud tops in the thermal infrared (IR) reveal characteristic structures, featuring a region of relatively high brightness temperatures (warm center) surrounded by a U-shaped region of low brightness temperatures. We performed a numerical simulation of a specific case study of pyroCb using a non-hydrostatic cloud resolving model with a two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization and a prognostic turbulence scheme. The model is able to reproduce the thermal IR structure as observed from satellite radiometry. Our findings establish a close link between the observed temperature pattern and small-scale mixing processes atop and downwind of the overshooting dome of the pyroCb. Such small-scale mixing processes are strongly enhanced by the formation and breaking of a stationary gravity wave induced by the overshoot. They are found to increase the stratospheric penetration of the smoke by up to almost 30 K and thus are of major significance for irreversible transport of forest fire smoke into the lower stratosphere.

2005, Reichstein, M., Kätterer, T., Andrén, O., Ciais, P., Schulze, E.-D., Cramer, W., Papale, D., Valentini, R.

Knorr et al. (2005) concluded that soil organic carbon pools with longer turnover times are more sensitive to temperature. We show that this conclusion is equivocal, largely dependent on their specific selection of data and does not persist when the data set of Kätterer et al. (1998) is analysed in a more appropriate way. Further, we analyse how statistical properties of the model parameters may interfere with correlative analyses that relate the Q 10 of soil respiration with the basal rate, where the latter is taken as a proxy for soil organic matter quality. We demonstrate that negative parameter correlations between Qio-values and base respiration rates are statistically expected and not necessarily provide evidence for a higher temperature sensitivity of low quality soil organic matter. Consequently, we propose it is premature to conclude that stable soil carbon is more sensitive to temperature than labile carbon.

2009, Kawa, S.R., Stolarski, R.S., Newman, P.A., Douglass, A.R., Rex, M., Hofmann, D.J., Santee, M.L., Frieler, K.

The impact and significance of uncertainties in model calculations of stratospheric ozone loss resulting from known uncertainty in chemical kinetics parameters is evaluated in trajectory chemistry simulations for the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. The uncertainty in modeled ozone loss is derived from Monte Carlo scenario simulations varying the kinetic (reaction and photolysis rate) parameters within their estimated uncertainty bounds. Simulations of a typical winter/spring Antarctic vortex scenario and Match scenarios in the Arctic produce large uncertainty in ozone loss rates and integrated seasonal loss. The simulations clearly indicate that the dominant source of model uncertainty in polar ozone loss is uncertainty in the Cl2O 2 photolysis reaction, which arises from uncertainty in laboratory-measured molecular cross sections at atmospherically important wavelengths. This estimated uncertainty in JCl 2O2 from laboratory measurements seriously hinders our ability to model polar ozone loss within useful quantitative error limits. Atmospheric observations, however, suggest that the Cl2O2 photolysis uncertainty may be less than that derived from the lab data. Comparisons to Match, South Pole ozonesonde, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data all show that the nominal recommended rate simulations agree with data within uncertainties when the Cl2O2 photolysis error is reduced by a factor of two, in line with previous in situ ClOx measurements. Comparisons to simulations using recent cross sections from Pope et al. (2007) are outside the constrained error bounds in each case. Other reactions producing significant sensitivity in polar ozone loss include BrO + ClO and its branching ratios. These uncertainties challenge our confidence in modeling polar ozone depletion and projecting future changes in response to changing halogen emissions and climate. Further laboratory, theoretical, and possibly atmospheric studies are needed.

2008, Rost, S., Gerten, D., Heyder, U.

This study quantifies current and potential future changes in transpiration, evaporation, interception loss and river discharge in response to land use change, irrigation and climate change, by performing several distinct simulations within the consistent hydrology and biosphere modeling framework LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land). We distinguished two irrigation simulations: a water limited one in which irrigation was restricted by local renewable water resources (ILIM), and a potential one in which no such limitation was assumed but withdrawals from deep groundwater or remote rivers allowed (IPOT). We found that the effect of historical land use change as compared to potential natural vegetation was pronounced, including a reduction in interception loss and transpiration by 25.9% and 10.6%, respectively, whereas river discharge increased by 6.6% (climate conditions of 1991-2000). Furthermore, we estimated that about 1170km3yr-1 of irrigation water could be withdrawn from local renewable water resources (in ILIM), which resulted in a reduction of river discharge by 1.5%. However, up to 1660km3yr-1 of water withdrawals were required in addition under the assumption that optimal growth of irrigated crops was sustained (IPOT), which resulted in a slight net increase in global river discharge by 2.0% due to return flows. Under the HadCM3 A2 climate and emission scenario, climate change alone will decrease total evapotranspiration by 1.5% and river discharge by 0.9% in 2046-2055 compared to 1991-2000 average due to changes in precipitation patterns, a decrease in global precipitation amount, and the net effect of CO2 fertilization. A doubling of agricultural land in 2046-2055 compared to 1991-2000 average as proposed by the IMAGE land use change scenario will result in a decrease in total evapotranspiration by 2.5% and in an increase in river discharge by 3.9%. That is, the effects of land use change in the future will be comparable in magnitude to the effects of climate change in this particular scenario. On present irrigated areas future water withdrawal will increase especially in regions where climate changes towards warmer and dryer conditions will be pronounced.

2011, Chen, C.M., Cageao, R.P., Lawrence, L., Stutz, J., Salawitch, R.J., Jourdain, L., Li, Q., Sander, S.P.

The column abundance of NO3 was measured over Table Mountain Facility, CA (34.4° 117.7° W) from May 2003 through September 2004, using lunar occultation near full moon with a grating spectrometer. The NO 3 column retrieval was performed with the differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) technique using both the 623 and 662 nm NO 3 absorption bands. Other spectral features such as Fraunhofer lines and absorption from water vapor and oxygen were removed using solar spectra obtained at different airmass factors. We observed a seasonal variation, with nocturnally averaged NO3 columns between 5-7 × 1013 molec cm-2 during October through March, and 5-22 × 10 13 molec cm-2 during April through September. A subset of the data, with diurnal variability vastly different from the temporal profile obtained from one-dimensional stratospheric model calculations, clearly has boundary layer contributions; this was confirmed by simultaneous long-path DOAS measurements. However, even the NO3 columns that did follow the modeled time evolution were often much larger than modeled stratospheric partial columns constrained by realistic temperatures and ozone concentrations. This discrepancy is attributed to substantial tropospheric NO3 in the free troposphere, which may have the same time dependence as stratospheric NO 3.

2017, Hempel, Sabrina, König, Marcel, Menz, Christoph, Janke, David, Amon, Barbara, Banhazi, Thomas M., Estellés, Fernando, Amon, Thomas

The microclimatic conditions in dairy buildings affect animal welfare and gaseous emissions. Measurements are highly variable due to the inhomogeneous distribution of heat and humidity sources (related to farm management) and the turbulent inflow (associated with meteorologic boundary conditions). The selection of the measurement strategy (number and position of the sensors) and the analysis methodology adds to the uncertainty of the applied measurement technique. To assess the suitability of different sensor positions, in situations where monitoring in the direct vicinity of the animals is not possible, we collected long-term data in two naturally ventilated dairy barns in Germany between March 2015 and April 2016 (horizontal and vertical profiles with 10 to 5 min temporal resolution). Uncertainties related to the measurement setup were assessed by comparing the device outputs under lab conditions after the on-farm experiments. We found out that the uncertainty in measurements of relative humidity is of particular importance when assessing heat stress risk and resulting economic losses in terms of temperature-humidity index. Measurements at a height of approximately 3 m–3.5 m turned out to be a good approximation for the microclimatic conditions in the animal occupied zone (including the air volume close to the emission active zone). However, further investigation along this cross-section is required to reduce uncertainties related to the inhomogeneous distribution of humidity. In addition, a regular sound cleaning (and if possible recalibration after few months) of the measurement devices is crucial to reduce the instrumentation uncertainty in long-term monitoring of relative humidity in dairy barns. © 2017 The Authors

2018, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., Piniewski, Mikołaj, Mezghani, Abdelkader, Okruszko, Tomasz, Pińskwar, Iwona, Kardel, Ignacy, Hov, Øystein, Szcześniak, Mateusz, Szwed, Małgorzata, Benestad, Rasmus E., Marcinkowski, Paweł, Graczyk, Dariusz, Dobler, Andreas, Førland, Eirik J., O’Keefe, Joanna, Choryński, Adam, Parding, Kajsa M., Haugen, Jan Erik

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.

2011, Perrette, M., Yool, A., Quartly, G.D., Popova, E.E.

Ice-edge blooms are significant features of Arctic primary production, yet have received relatively little attention. Here we combine satellite ocean colour and sea-ice data in a pan-Arctic study. Ice-edge blooms occur in all seasonally ice-covered areas and from spring to late summer, being observed in 77-89% of locations for which adequate data exist, and usually peaking within 20 days of ice retreat. They sometimes form long belts along the ice-edge (greater than 100 km), although smaller structures were also found. The bloom peak is on average more than 1 mg m-3, with major blooms more than 10 mg m -3, and is usually located close to the ice-edge, though not always. Some propagate behind the receding ice-edge over hundreds of kilometres and over several months, while others remain stationary. The strong connection between ice retreat and productivity suggests that the ongoing changes in Arctic sea-ice may have a significant impact on higher trophic levels and local fish stocks.

2019, Wang, Simon S.-Y., Kim, Hyungjun, Coumou, Dim, Yoon, Jin-Ho, Zhao, Lin, Gillies, Robert R.

[No abstract available]