2015, Matthias, V., Shepherd, T.G., Hoffmann, P., Rapp, M.

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most prominent vertical coupling process in the middle atmosphere, which occur during winter and are caused by the interaction of planetary waves (PWs) with the zonal mean flow. Vertical coupling has also been identified during the equinox transitions, and is similarly associated with PWs. We argue that there is a characteristic aspect of the autumn transition in northern high latitudes, which we call the "hiccup", and which acts like a "mini SSW", i.e. like a small minor warming. We study the average characteristics of the hiccup based on a superimposed epoch analysis using a nudged version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, representing 30 years of historical data. Hiccups can be identified in about half the years studied. The mesospheric zonal wind results are compared to radar observations over Andenes (69° N, 16° E) for the years 2000–2013. A comparison of the average characteristics of hiccups and SSWs shows both similarities and differences between the two vertical coupling processes.

2011, Gabriel, A., Körnich, H., Lossow, S., Peters, D.H.W., Urban, J., Murtagh, D.

Stationary wave patterns in middle atmospheric ozone (O3) and water vapour (H2O) are an important factor in the atmospheric circulation, but there is a strong gap in diagnosing and understanding their configuration and origin. Based on Odin satellite data from 2001 to 2010 we investigate the stationary wave patterns in O3 and H2O as indicated by the seasonal long-term means of the zonally asymmetric components O3* Combining double low line O3-[O3] and H2O* Combining double low line H2O-[H2O] ([O3], [H2O]: zonal means). At mid-and polar latitudes we find a pronounced wave one pattern in both constituents. In the Northern Hemisphere, the wave patterns increase during autumn, maintain their strength during winter and decay during spring, with maximum amplitudes of about 10-20 % of the zonal mean values. During winter, the wave one in O3* shows a maximum over the North Pacific/Aleutians and a minimum over the North Atlantic/Northern Europe and a double-peak structure with enhanced amplitude in the lower and in the upper stratosphere. The wave one in H2O* extends from the lower stratosphere to the upper mesosphere with a westward shift in phase with increasing height including a jump in phase at upper stratosphere altitudes. In the Southern Hemisphere, similar wave patterns occur mainly during southern spring. By comparing the observed wave patterns in O 3* and H2O3* with a linear solution of a steady-state transport equation for a zonally asymmetric tracer component we find that these wave patterns are primarily due to zonally asymmetric transport by geostrophically balanced winds, which are derived from observed temperature profiles. In addition temperature-dependent photochemistry contributes substantially to the spatial structure of the wave pattern in O 3* . Further influences, e.g., zonal asymmetries in eddy mixing processes, are discussed.

2013, Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J.H., Zanchettin, D., Zorita, E.

Are simulations and reconstructions of past climate and its variability consistent with each other? We assess the consistency of simulations and reconstructions for the climate of the last millennium under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. In this type of analysis, the null hypothesis is that reconstructions and simulations are statistically indistinguishable and, therefore, are exchangeable with each other. Ensemble consistency is assessed for Northern Hemisphere mean temperature, Central European mean temperature and for global temperature fields. Reconstructions available for these regions serve as verification data for a set of simulations of the climate of the last millennium performed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Consistency is generally limited to some sub-domains and some sub-periods. Only the ensemble simulated and reconstructed annual Central European mean temperatures for the second half of the last millennium demonstrates unambiguous consistency. Furthermore, we cannot exclude consistency of an ensemble of reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature with the simulation ensemble mean. If we treat simulations and reconstructions as equitable hypotheses about past climate variability, the found general lack of their consistency weakens our confidence in inferences about past climate evolutions on the considered spatial and temporal scales. That is, our available estimates of past climate evolutions are on an equal footing but, as shown here, inconsistent with each other.

2018, Conte, J.F., Chau, J.L., Laskar, F.I., Stober, G., Schmidt, H., Brown, P.

We present a study of the semidiurnal solar tide (S2) during the fall and spring transition times in the Northern Hemisphere. The tides have been obtained from wind measurements provided by three meteor radars located at Andenes (69° N, 16° E), Juliusruh (54° N, 13° E) and Tavistock (42° N, 81° W). During the fall, S2 is characterized by a sudden and pronounced decrease occurring every year and at all height levels. The spring transition also shows a decrease in S2, but not sudden and that ascends from lower to higher altitudes during an interval of ∼ 15 to 40 days. To assess contributions of different semidiurnal tidal components, we have examined a 20-year free-run simulation by the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). We found that the differences exhibited by the S2 tide between equinox times are mainly due to distinct behaviors of the migrating semidiurnal and the non-migrating westward-propagating wave number 1 tidal components (SW2 and SW1, respectively). Specifically, during the fall both SW2 and SW1 decrease, while during the springtime SW2 decreases but SW1 remains approximately constant or decreases only slightly. The decrease shown by SW1 during the fall occurs later than that of SW2 and S2, which indicates that the behavior of S2 is mainly driven by the migrating component. Nonetheless, the influence of SW1 is necessary to explain the behavior of S2 during the spring. In addition, a strong shift in the phase of S2 (of SW2 in the simulations) is also observed during the fall. Our meteor radar wind measurements show more gravity wave activity in the fall than during the spring, which might be indicating that the fall decrease is partly due to interactions between SW2 and gravity waves. © 2018 Author(s).

2004, Shepherd, M., Fricke-Begemann, C.

Zonal mean daytime temperatures from the Wind Imaging Interferometer (WINDII) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and nightly temperatures from a potassium (K) lidar are employed in the study of the tidal variations in mesospheric temperature at low and mid latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The analysis is applied to observations at 89 km height for winter solstice, December to February (DJF), at 55° N, and for May and November at 28° N. The WINDII results are based on observations from 1991 to 1997. The K-lidar observations for DJF at Kühlungsborn (54° N) were from 1996-1999, while those for May and November at Tenerife 28° N were from 1999. To avoid possible effects from year-to-year variability in the temperatures observed, as well as differences due to instrument calibration and observation periods, the mean temperature field is removed from the respective data sets, assuming that only tidal and planetary scale perturbations remain in the temperature residuals. The latter are then binned in 0.5 h periods and the individual data sets are fitted in a least-mean square sense to 12-h and 8-h harmonics, to infer semidiurnal and terdiurnal tidal parameters. Both the K-lidar and WINDII independently observed a strong semidiurnal tide in November, with amplitudes of 13 K and 7.4 K, respectively. Good agreement was also found in the tidal parameters derived from the two data sets for DJF and May. It was recognized that insufficient local time coverage of the two separate data sets could lead to an overestimation of the semidiurnal tidal amplitude. A combined ground-based/satellite data set with full diurnal local time coverage was created which was fitted to 24 h+ 12 h+8 h harmonics and a novel method applied to account for possible differences between the daytime and nighttime means. The results still yielded a strong semidiurnal tide in November at 28° N with an amplitude of 8.8 K which is twice the SD amplitude in May and DJF. The diurnal tidal parameters were practically the same at 28° N and 55° N, in November and DJF, respectively, with an amplitude of 6.5 K and peaking at ∼9h. The diurnal and semidiurnal amplitudes in May were about the same, 4 K, and 4.6 K, while the terdiurnal tide had the same amplitudes and phases in May and November at 28° N. Good agreement is found with other experimental data while models tend to underestimate the amplitudes.

2020, Büntgen, Ulf, Arseneault, Dominique, Boucher, Étienne, Churakova, Olga V., Gennaretti, Fabio, Crivellaro, Alan, Hughes, Malcolm K., Kirdyanov, Alexander V., Klippel, Lara, Krusic, Paul J., Linderholm, Hans W., Ljungqvist, Fredrik C., Ludescher, Josef, McCormick, Michael, Myglan, Vladimir S., Nicolussi, Kurt, Piermattei, Alma, Oppenheimer, Clive, Reinig, Frederick, Sigl, Michael, Vaganov, Eugene A., Esper, Jan

Climate reconstructions for the Common Era are compromised by the paucity of annually-resolved and absolutely-dated proxy records prior to medieval times. Where reconstructions are based on combinations of different climate archive types (of varying spatiotemporal resolution, dating uncertainty, record length and predictive skill), it is challenging to estimate past amplitude ranges, disentangle the relative roles of natural and anthropogenic forcing, or probe deeper interrelationships between climate variability and human history. Here, we compile and analyse updated versions of all the existing summer temperature sensitive tree-ring width chronologies from the Northern Hemisphere that span the entire Common Era. We apply a novel ensemble approach to reconstruct extra-tropical summer temperatures from 1 to 2010 CE, and calculate uncertainties at continental to hemispheric scales. Peak warming in the 280s, 990s and 1020s, when volcanic forcing was low, was comparable to modern conditions until 2010 CE. The lowest June–August temperature anomaly in 536 not only marks the beginning of the coldest decade, but also defines the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA). While prolonged warmth during Roman and medieval times roughly coincides with the tendency towards societal prosperity across much of the North Atlantic/European sector and East Asia, major episodes of volcanically-forced summer cooling often presaged widespread famines, plague outbreaks and political upheavals. Our study reveals a larger amplitude of spatially synchronized summer temperature variation during the first millennium of the Common Era than previously recognised.

2002, James, P.M., Peters, D.

An ozone mini-hole is a synoptic-scale area of strongly reduced column total ozone, which undergoes a growth-decay cycle in association with baroclinic weather systems. The tracks of mini-hole events recorded during the TOMS observation period over the Northern Hemisphere provide a database for building anomaly fields of various meteorological parameters, following each mini-hole center in a Lagrangian sense. The resulting fields provide, for the first time, a complete mean Lagrangian picture of the three-dimensional structure of typical ozone mini-holes in the Northern Hemisphere. Mini-holes are shown to be associated with anomalous warm anticyclonic flow in the upper troposphere and cold cyclonic anomalies in the middle stratosphere. Ascending air columns occur upstream and descent downstream of the mini-hole centers. Band-pass filtering is used to reveal the transient synoptic nature of mini-holes embedded within larger scale circulation anomalies. Significant correlations between ozone and Ertel's potential vorticity on isentropes (IPV) both near the tropopause and in the middle stratosphere are shown and then utilized by reconstructing the Lagrangian analysis to follow local IPV anomalies instead of ozone minima. By using IPV as a proxy for ozone, the geopotential anomaly dipolar structure in the vertical characteristics of mini-holes is shown to result from a superposition of two largely independent dynamical components, stratospheric and tropospheric, typically operating on different time scales. Hence, ozone mini-holes may be viewed primarily as phenomena of coincidence.

2020, Hodzic, Alma, Campuzano-Jost, Pedro, Bian, Huisheng, Chin, Mian, Colarco, Peter R., Day, Douglas A., Froyd, Karl D., Heinold, Bernd, Katich, Joseph M., Jo, Duseong S., Kodros, John K., Nault, Benjamin A., Pierce, Jeffrey R., Ray, Eric, Schacht, Jacob, Schill, Gregory P., Schroder, Jason C., Schwarz, Joshua P., Sueper, Donna T., Tegen, Ina, Tilmes, Simone, Tsigaridis, Kostas, Yu, Pengfei, Jimenez, Jose L.

The spatial distribution and properties of submicron organic aerosol (OA) are among the key sources of uncertainty in our understanding of aerosol effects on climate. Uncertainties are particularly large over remote regions of the free troposphere and Southern Ocean, where very few data have been available and where OA predictions from AeroCom Phase II global models span 2 to 3 orders of magnitude, greatly exceeding the model spread over source regions. The (nearly) pole-to-pole vertical distribution of nonrefractory aerosols was measured with an aerosol mass spectrometer onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft as part of the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission during the Northern Hemisphere summer (August 2016) and winter (February 2017). This study presents the first extensive characterization of OA mass concentrations and their level of oxidation in the remote atmosphere. OA and sulfate are the major contributors by mass to submicron aerosols in the remote troposphere, together with sea salt in the marine boundary layer. Sulfate was dominant in the lower stratosphere. OA concentrations have a strong seasonal and zonal variability, with the highest levels measured in the lower troposphere in the summer and over the regions influenced by biomass burning from Africa (up to 10 μgsm-3). Lower concentrations (~ 0:1 0.3 μgsm-3) are observed in the northern middle and high latitudes and very low concentrations (< 0:1 μgsm-3) in the southern middle and high latitudes. The ATom dataset is used to evaluate predictions of eight current global chemistry models that implement a variety of commonly used representations of OA sources and chemistry, as well as of the AeroCom-II ensemble. The current model ensemble captures the average vertical and spatial distribution of measured OA concentrations, and the spread of the individual models remains within a factor of 5. These results are significantly improved over the AeroCom-II model ensemble, which shows large overestimations over these regions. However, some of the improved agreement with observations occurs for the wrong reasons, as models have the tendency to greatly overestimate the primary OA fraction and underestimate the sec-ondary fraction. Measured OA in the remote free troposphere is highly oxygenated, with organic aerosol to organic carbon (OA= OC) ratios of ~ 2.2 2.8, and is 30 % 60% more oxygenated than in current models, which can lead to significant errors in OA concentrations. The model measurement comparisons presented here support the concept of a more dynamic OA system as proposed by Hodzic et al. (2016), with enhanced removal of primary OA and a stronger production of secondary OA in global models needed to provide better agreement with observations. © 2020 IEEE Computer Society. All rights reserved.

2009, Brovkin, V., Petoukhov, V., Claussen, M., Bauer, E., Archer, D., Jaeger, C.

We use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity to investigate scenarios of stratospheric sulfur injections as a measure to compensate for CO2-induced global warming. The baseline scenario includes the burning of 5,000 GtC of fossil fuels. A full compensation of CO2-induced warming requires a load of about 13 MtS in the stratosphere at the peak of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Keeping global warming below 2°C reduces this load to 9 MtS. Compensation of CO 2 forcing by stratospheric aerosols leads to a global reduction in precipitation, warmer winters in the high northern latitudes and cooler summers over northern hemisphere landmasses. The average surface ocean pH decreases by 0.7, reducing the calcifying ability of marine organisms. Because of the millennial persistence of the fossil fuel CO2 in the atmosphere, high levels of stratospheric aerosol loading would have to continue for thousands of years until CO2 was removed from the atmosphere. A termination of stratospheric aerosol loading results in abrupt global warming of up to 5°C within several decades, a vulnerability of the Earth system to technological failure. © 2008 The Author(s).

2013, Matthias, V., Hoffmann, P., Manson, A., Meek, C., Stober, G., Brown, P., Rapp, M.

The Northern Hemispheric winter is disturbed by large scale variability mainly caused by Planetary Waves (PWs), which interact with the mean flow and thus result in Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs). The effects of a SSW on the middle atmosphere are an increase of stratospheric and a simultaneous decrease of mesospheric temperature as well as a wind reversal to westward wind from the mesosphere to the stratosphere. In most cases these disturbances are strongest at polar latitudes, get weaker toward the south and vanish at mid-latitudes around 50° to 60° N as for example during the winter 2005/06. However, other events like in 2009, 2010 and 2012 show a similar or even stronger westward wind at mid-than at polar latitudes either in the mesosphere or in the stratosphere during the SSW. This study uses local meteor and MF-radar measurements, global satellite observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and assimilated model data from MERRA (Modern-ERA Retrospective analysis for research and Applications). We compare differences in the latitudinal structure of the zonal wind, temperature and PW activity between a "normal" event, where the event in 2006 was chosen representatively, and the latitudinal displaced events in 2009, 2010 and 2012. A continuous westward wind band between the pole and 20° N is observed during the displaced events. Furthermore, distinctive temperature differences at mid-latitudes occur before the displaced warmings compared to 2006 as well as a southward extended stratospheric warming afterwards. These differences between the normal SSW in 2006 and the displaced events in 2009, 2010 and 2012 are linked to an increased PWactivity between 30° N and 50° N and the changed stationary wave flux in the stratosphere around the displaced events compared to 2006.