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search.filters.applied.f.access: openAccess × End date: 2023 × End date: 2018 × Start date: 2018 × Version: publishedVersion × Subject: climate effect ×

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    Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe
    ([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2018) Webber, Heidi; Ewert, Frank; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Müller, Christoph; Fronzek, Stefan; Ruane, Alex C.; Bourgault, Maryse; Martre, Pierre; Ababaei, Behnam; Bindi, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Finger, Robert; Fodor, Nándor; Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Gaiser, Thomas; Jabloun, Mohamed; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Lizaso, Jon I.; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Manceau, Loic; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Siebert, Stefan; Stella, Tommaso; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel
    Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.
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    A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2018) Tittensor, D.P.; Eddy, T.D.; Lotze, H.K.; Galbraith, E.D.; Cheung, W.; Barange, M.; Blanchard, J.L.; Bopp, L.; Bryndum-Buchholz, A.; Büchner, M.; Bulman, C.; Carozza, D.A.; Christensen, V.; Coll, M.; Dunne, J.P.; Fernandes, J.A.; Fulton, E.A.; Hobday, A.J.; Huber, V.; Jennings, S.; Jones, M.; Lehodey, P.; Link, J.S.; MacKinson, S.; Maury, O.; Niiranen, S.; Oliveros-Ramos, R.; Roy, T.; Schewe, J.; Shin, Y.-J.; Silva, T.; Stock, C.A.; Steenbeek, J.; Underwood, P.J.; Volkholz, J.; Watson, J.R.; Walker, N.D.
    Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within-and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium-and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
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    Source apportionment of the organic aerosol over the Atlantic Ocean from 53° N to 53° S: Significant contributions from marine emissions and long-range transport
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Huang, Shan; Wu, Zhijun; Poulain, Laurent; van Pinxteren, Manuela; Merkel, Maik; Assmann, Denise; Herrmann, Hartmut; Wiedensohler, Alfred
    Marine aerosol particles are an important part of the natural aerosol systems and might have a significant impact on the global climate and biological cycle. It is widely accepted that truly pristine marine conditions are difficult to find over the ocean. However, the influence of continental and anthropogenic emissions on the marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol is still less understood and non-quantitative, causing uncertainties in the estimation of the climate effect of marine aerosols. This study presents a detailed chemical characterization of the MBL aerosol as well as the source apportionment of the organic aerosol (OA) composition. The data set covers the Atlantic Ocean from 53∘ N to 53∘ S, based on four open-ocean cruises in 2011 and 2012. The aerosol particle composition was measured with a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS), which indicated that sub-micrometer aerosol particles over the Atlantic Ocean are mainly composed of sulfates (50 % of the particle mass concentration), organics (21 %) and sea salt (12 %). OA has been apportioned into five factors, including three factors linked to marine sources and two with continental and/or anthropogenic origins. The marine oxygenated OA (MOOA, 16 % of the total OA mass) and marine nitrogen-containing OA (MNOA, 16 %) are identified as marine secondary products with gaseous biogenic precursors dimethyl sulfide (DMS) or amines. Marine hydrocarbon-like OA (MHOA, 19 %) was attributed to the primary emissions from the Atlantic Ocean. The factor for the anthropogenic oxygenated OA (Anth-OOA, 19 %) is related to continental long-range transport. Represented by the combustion oxygenated OA (Comb-OOA), aged combustion emissions from maritime traffic and wild fires in Africa contributed, on average, a large fraction to the total OA mass (30 %). This study provides the important finding that long-range transport was found to contribute averagely 49 % of the submicron OA mass over the Atlantic Ocean. This is almost equal to that from marine sources (51 %). Furthermore, a detailed latitudinal distribution of OA source contributions showed that DMS oxidation contributed markedly to the OA over the South Atlantic during spring, while continental-related long-range transport largely influenced the marine atmosphere near Europe and western and central Africa (15∘ N to 15∘ S). In addition, supported by a solid correlation between marine tracer methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and the DMS-oxidation OA (MOOA, R2>0.85), this study suggests that the DMS-related secondary organic aerosol (SOA) over the Atlantic Ocean could be estimated by MSA and a scaling factor of 1.79, especially in spring.