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- ItemAssessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland(Warsaw : De Gruyter Open, 2018) Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Okruszko, Tomasz; Pińskwar, Iwona; Kardel, Ignacy; Hov, Øystein; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Szwed, Małgorzata; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Graczyk, Dariusz; Dobler, Andreas; Førland, Eirik J.; O’Keefe, Joanna; Choryński, Adam; Parding, Kajsa M.; Haugen, Jan ErikThe present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
- ItemDid ERA5 Improve Temperature and Precipitation Reanalysis over East Africa?(Basel, Switzerland : MDPI AG, 2020) Gleixner, Stephanie; Demissie, Teferi; Diro, Gulilat TeferaReanalysis products are often taken as an alternative solution to observational weather and climate data due to availability and accessibility problems, particularly in data-sparse regions such as Africa. Proper evaluation of their strengths and weaknesses, however, should not be overlooked. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of ERA5 reanalysis and to document the progress made compared to ERA-interim for the fields of near-surface temperature and precipitation over Africa. Results show that in ERA5 the climatological biases in temperature and precipitation are clearly reduced and the representation of inter-annual variability is improved over most of Africa. However, both reanalysis products performed less well in terms of capturing the observed long-term trends, despite a slightly better performance of ERA5 over ERA-interim. Further regional analysis over East Africa shows that the representation of the annual cycle of precipitation is substantially improved in ERA5 by reducing the wet bias during the rainy season. The spatial distribution of precipitation during extreme years is also better represented in ERA5. While ERA5 has improved much in comparison to its predecessor, there is still demand for improved products with even higher resolution and accuracy to satisfy impact-based studies, such as in agriculture and water resources. © 2020 by the authors.
- ItemImpacts of enhanced weathering on biomass production for negative emission technologies and soil hydrology(Katlenburg-Lindau [u.a.] : Copernicus, 2020) De Oliveira Garcia, Wagner; Amann, Thorben; Hartmann, Jens; Karstens, Kristine; Popp, Alexander; Boysen, Lena R.; Smith, Pete; Goll, DanielLimiting global mean temperature changes to well below 2 °C likely requires a rapid and large-scale deployment of negative emission technologies (NETs). Assessments so far have shown a high potential of biomass-based terrestrial NETs, but only a few assessments have included effects of the commonly found nutrient-deficient soils on biomass production. Here, we investigate the deployment of enhanced weathering (EW) to supply nutrients to areas of afforestation-reforestation and naturally growing forests (AR) and bioenergy grasses (BG) that are deficient in phosphorus (P), besides the impacts on soil hydrology. Using stoichiometric ratios and biomass estimates from two established vegetation models, we calculated the nutrient demand of AR and BG. Insufficient geogenic P supply limits C storage in biomass. For a mean P demand by AR and a lowgeogenic-P-supply scenario, AR would sequester 119 Gt C in biomass; for a high-geogenic-P-supply and low-AR-Pdemand scenario, 187 Gt C would be sequestered in biomass; and for a low geogenic P supply and high AR P demand, only 92 GtC would be accumulated by biomass. An average amount of ∼ 150 Gt basalt powder applied for EW would be needed to close global P gaps and completely sequester projected amounts of 190 Gt C during the years 2006-2099 for the mean AR P demand scenario (2-362 Gt basalt powder for the low-AR-P-demand and for the high-AR-P-demand scenarios would be necessary, respectively). The average potential of carbon sequestration by EW until 2099 is ∼ 12 GtC (∼ 0:2-∼ 27 Gt C) for the specified scenarios (excluding additional carbon sequestration via alkalinity production). For BG, 8 kg basaltm2 a1 might, on average, replenish the exported potassium (K) and P by harvest. Using pedotransfer functions, we show that the impacts of basalt powder application on soil hydraulic conductivity and plant-Available water, to close predicted P gaps, would depend on basalt and soil texture, but in general the impacts are marginal. We show that EW could potentially close the projected P gaps of an AR scenario and nutrients exported by BG harvest, which would decrease or replace the use of industrial fertilizers. Besides that, EW ameliorates the soil's capacity to retain nutrients and soil pH and replenish soil nutrient pools. Lastly, EW application could improve plant-Available-water capacity depending on deployed amounts of rock powder - adding a new dimension to the coupling of land-based biomass NETs with EW. © 2020 Royal Society of Chemistry. All rights reserved.
- ItemPhotobiomodulation of lymphatic drainage and clearance: Perspective strategy for augmentation of meningeal lymphatic functions(Washington, DC : Optica, 2020) Semyachkina-Glushkovskaya, Oxana; Abdurashitov, Arkady; Dubrovsky, Alexander; Klimova, Maria; Agranovich, Ilana; Terskov, Andrey; Shirokov, Alexander; Vinnik, Valeria; Kuzmina, Anna; Lezhnev, Nikita; Blokhina, Inna; Shnitenkova, Anastassia; Tuchin, Valery; Rafailov, Edik; Kurths, JurgenThere is a hypothesis that augmentation of the drainage and clearing function of the meningeal lymphatic vessels (MLVs) might be a promising therapeutic target for preventing neurological diseases. Here we investigate mechanisms of photobiomodulation (PBM, 1267 nm) of lymphatic drainage and clearance. Our results obtained at optical coherence tomography (OCT) give strong evidence that low PBM doses (5 and 10 J/cm2) stimulate drainage function of the lymphatic vessels via vasodilation (OCT data on the mesenteric lymphatics) and stimulation of lymphatic clearance (OCT data on clearance of gold nanorods from the brain) that was supported by confocal imaging of clearance of FITC-dextran from the cortex via MLVs. We assume that PBM-mediated relaxation of the lymphatic vessels can be possible mechanisms underlying increasing the permeability of the lymphatic endothelium that allows molecules transported by the lymphatic vessels and explain PBM stimulation of lymphatic drainage and clearance. These findings open new strategies for the stimulation of MLVs functions and non-pharmacological therapy of brain diseases.
- ItemTesting bias adjustment methods for regional climate change applications under observational uncertainty and resolution mismatch(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) Casanueva, Ana; Herrera, Sixto; Iturbide, Maialen; Lange, Stefan; Jury, Martin; Dosio, Alessandro; Maraun, Douglas; Gutiérrez, José M.Systematic biases in climate models hamper their direct use in impact studies and, as a consequence, many statistical bias adjustment methods have been developed to calibrate model outputs against observations. The application of these methods in a climate change context is problematic since there is no clear understanding on how these methods may affect key magnitudes, for example, the climate change signal or trend, under different sources of uncertainty. Two relevant sources of uncertainty, often overlooked, are the sensitivity to the observational reference used to calibrate the method and the effect of the resolution mismatch between model and observations (downscaling effect). In the present work, we assess the impact of these factors on the climate change signal of temperature and precipitation considering marginal, temporal and extreme aspects. We use eight standard and state-of-the-art bias adjustment methods (spanning a variety of methods regarding their nature—empirical or parametric—, fitted parameters and trend-preservation) for a case study in the Iberian Peninsula. The quantile trend-preserving methods (namely quantile delta mapping (QDM), scaled distribution mapping (SDM) and the method from the third phase of ISIMIP-ISIMIP3) preserve better the raw signals for the different indices and variables considered (not all preserved by construction). However, they rely largely on the reference dataset used for calibration, thus presenting a larger sensitivity to the observations, especially for precipitation intensity, spells and extreme indices. Thus, high-quality observational datasets are essential for comprehensive analyses in larger (continental) domains. Similar conclusions hold for experiments carried out at high (approximately 20 km) and low (approximately 120 km) spatial resolutions. © 2020 The Authors. Atmospheric Science Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.
- ItemConsecutive extreme flooding and heat wave in Japan: Are they becoming a norm?(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Wang, Simon S.-Y.; Kim, Hyungjun; Coumou, Dim; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Zhao, Lin; Gillies, Robert R.[No abstract available]
- ItemNear Real-Time Biophysical Rice (Oryza sativa L.) Yield Estimation to Support Crop Insurance Implementation in India(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Arumugam, Ponraj; Chemura, Abel; Schauberger, Bernhard; Gornott, ChristophImmediate yield loss information is required to trigger crop insurance payouts, which are important to secure agricultural income stability for millions of smallholder farmers. Techniques for monitoring crop growth in real-time and at 5 km spatial resolution may also aid in designing price interventions or storage strategies for domestic production. In India, the current government-backed PMFBY (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana) insurance scheme is seeking such technologies to enable cost-efficient insurance premiums for Indian farmers. In this study, we used the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) to estimate yield and yield anomalies at 5 km spatial resolution for Kharif rice (Oryza sativa L.) over India between 2001 and 2017. We calibrated the model using publicly available data: namely, gridded weather data, nutrient applications, sowing dates, crop mask, irrigation information, and genetic coefficients of staple varieties. The model performance over the model calibration years (2001–2015) was exceptionally good, with 13 of 15 years achieving more than 0.7 correlation coefficient (r), and more than half of the years with above 0.75 correlation with observed yields. Around 52% (67%) of the districts obtained a relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) of less than 20% (25%) after calibration in the major rice-growing districts (>25% area under cultivation). An out-of-sample validation of the calibrated model in Kharif seasons 2016 and 2017 resulted in differences between state-wise observed and simulated yield anomalies from –16% to 20%. Overall, the good ability of the model in the simulations of rice yield indicates that the model is applicable in selected states of India, and its outputs are useful as a yield loss assessment index for the crop insurance scheme PMFBY.
- ItemIncorporating Biodiversity into Biogeochemistry Models to Improve Prediction of Ecosystem Services in Temperate Grasslands: Review and Roadmap(Basel : MDPI, 2020) Van Oijen, Marcel; Barcza, Zoltán; Confalonieri, Roberto; Korhonen, Panu; Kröel-Dulay, György; Lellei-Kovács, Eszter; Louarn, Gaëtan; Louault, Frédérique; Martin, Raphaël; Moulin, Thibault; Movedi, Ermes; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Rolinski, Susanne; Viovy, Nicolas; Wirth, Stephen Björn; Bellocchi, GianniMulti-species grasslands are reservoirs of biodiversity and provide multiple ecosystem services, including fodder production and carbon sequestration. The provision of these services depends on the control exerted on the biogeochemistry and plant diversity of the system by the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors, e.g., grazing or mowing intensity. Biogeochemical models incorporate a mechanistic view of the functioning of grasslands and provide a sound basis for studying the underlying processes. However, in these models, the simulation of biogeochemical cycles is generally not coupled to simulation of plant species dynamics, which leads to considerable uncertainty about the quality of predictions. Ecological models, on the other hand, do account for biodiversity with approaches adopted from plant demography, but without linking the dynamics of plant species to the biogeochemical processes occurring at the community level, and this hampers the models’ capacity to assess resilience against abiotic stresses such as drought and nutrient limitation. While setting out the state-of-the-art developments of biogeochemical and ecological modelling, we explore and highlight the role of plant diversity in the regulation of the ecosystem processes underlying the ecosystems services provided by multi-species grasslands. An extensive literature and model survey was carried out with an emphasis on technically advanced models reconciling biogeochemistry and biodiversity, which are readily applicable to managed grasslands in temperate latitudes. We propose a roadmap of promising developments in modelling.
- ItemNovel fixed-time stabilization of quaternion-valued BAMNNs with disturbances and time-varying coefficients(Springfield, MO : AIMS Press, 2020) Wei, Ruoyu; Cao, Jinde; Kurths, JürgenIn this paper, with the quaternion number and time-varying coefficients introduced into traditional BAMNNs, the model of quaternion-valued BAMNNs are formulated. For the first time, fixed-time stabilization of time-varying quaternion-valued BAMNNs is investigated. A novel fixed-time control method is adopted, in which the choice of the Lyapunov function is more general than in most previous results. To cope with the noncommutativity of the quaternion multiplication, two different fixed-time control methods are provided, a decomposition method and a non-decomposition method. Furthermore, to reduce the control strength and improve control efficiency, an adaptive fixed-time control strategy is proposed. Lastly, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. © 2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press.
- ItemOpen-access platform to synthesize knowledge of ape conservation across sites(New York, NY [u.a.] : Wiley-Liss, 2020-11-10) Heinicke, Stefanie; Ordaz‐Németh, Isabel; Junker, Jessica; Bachmann, Mona E.; Marrocoli, Sergio; Wessling, Erin G.; Byler, Dirck; Cheyne, Susan M.; Desmond, Jenny; Dowd, Dervla; Fitzgerald, Maegan; Fourrier, Marc; Goedmakers, Annemarie; Hernandez‐Aguilar, R. Adriana; Hillers, Annika; Hockings, Kimberley J.; Jones, Sorrel; Kaiser, Michael; Koops, Kathelijne; Lapuente, Juan M.; Maisels, Fiona; Riedel, Julia; Terrade, Emilien; Tweh, Clement G.; Vergnes, Virginie; Vogt, Tina; Williamson, Elizabeth A.; Kühl, Hjalmar S.Despite the large body of literature on ape conservation, much of the data needed for evidence-based conservation decision-making is still not readily accessible and standardized, rendering cross-site comparison difficult. To support knowledge synthesis and to complement the IUCN SSC Ape Populations, Environments and Surveys database, we created the A.P.E.S. Wiki (https://apeswiki.eva.mpg.de), an open-access platform providing site-level information on ape conservation status and context. The aim of this Wiki is to provide information and data about geographical ape locations, to curate information on individuals and organizations active in ape research and conservation, and to act as a tool to support collaboration between conservation practitioners, scientists, and other stakeholders. To illustrate the process and benefits of knowledge synthesis, we used the momentum of the update of the conservation action plan for western chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) and began with this critically endangered taxon. First, we gathered information on 59 sites in West Africa from scientific publications, reports, and online sources. Information was compiled in a standardized format and can thus be summarized using a web scraping approach. We then asked experts working at those sites to review and complement the information (20 sites have been reviewed to date). We demonstrate the utility of the information available through the Wiki, for example, for studying species distribution. Importantly, as an open-access platform and based on the well-known wiki layout, the A.P.E.S. Wiki can contribute to direct and interactive information sharing and promote the efforts invested by the ape research and conservation community. The Section on Great Apes and the Section on Small Apes of the IUCN SSC Primate Specialist Group will guide and support the expansion of the platform to all small and great ape taxa. Similar collaborative efforts can contribute to extending knowledge synthesis to all nonhuman primate species.