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- ItemAgent-based modeling to integrate elements from different disciplines for ambitious climate policy(Malden, MA : Wiley-Blackwell, 2022) Savin, Ivan; Creutzig, Felix; Filatova, Tatiana; Foramitti, Joël; Konc, Théo; Niamir, Leila; Safarzynska, Karolina; van den Bergh, JeroenAmbitious climate mitigation policies face social and political resistance. One reason is that existing policies insufficiently capture the diversity of relevant insights from the social sciences about potential policy outcomes. We argue that agent-based models can serve as a powerful tool for integration of elements from different disciplines. Having such a common platform will enable a more complete assessment of climate policies, in terms of criteria like effectiveness, equity and public support. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Policies, Instruments, Lifestyles, Behavior Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance.
- ItemLong-term studies of mesosphere and lower-thermosphere summer length definitions based on mean zonal wind features observed for more than one solar cycle at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2022) Jaen, Juliana; Renkwitz, Toralf; Chau, Jorge L.; He, Maosheng; Hoffmann, Peter; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Jacobi, Christoph; Tsutsumi, Masaki; Matthias, Vivien; Hall, ChrisSpecular meteor radars (SMRs) and partial reflection radars (PRRs) have been observing mesospheric winds for more than a solar cycle over Germany (g1/4g54g gN) and northern Norway (g1/4g69g gN). This work investigates the mesospheric mean zonal wind and the zonal mean geostrophic zonal wind from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) over these two regions between 2004 and 2020. Our study focuses on the summer when strong planetary waves are absent and the stratospheric and tropospheric conditions are relatively stable. We establish two definitions of the summer length according to the zonal wind reversals: (1) the mesosphere and lower-thermosphere summer length (MLT-SL) using SMR and PRR winds and (2) the mesosphere summer length (M-SL) using the PRR and MLS. Under both definitions, the summer begins around April and ends around middle September. The largest year-to-year variability is found in the summer beginning in both definitions, particularly at high latitudes, possibly due to the influence of the polar vortex. At high latitudes, the year 2004 has a longer summer length compared to the mean value for MLT-SL as well as 2012 for both definitions. The M-SL exhibits an increasing trend over the years, while MLT-SL does not have a well-defined trend. We explore a possible influence of solar activity as well as large-scale atmospheric influences (e.g., quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), major sudden stratospheric warming events). We complement our work with an extended time series of 31 years at middle latitudes using only PRR winds. In this case, the summer length shows a breakpoint, suggesting a non-uniform trend, and periods similar to those known for ENSO and QBO.
- ItemGreenhouse gas effects on the solar cycle response of water vapour and noctilucent clouds(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2023) Vellalassery, Ashique; Baumgarten, Gerd; Grygalashvyly, Mykhaylo; Lübken, Franz-JosefThe responses of water vapour (H2O) and noctilucent clouds (NLCs) to the solar cycle are studied using the Leibniz Institute for Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) model and the Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport (MIMAS) model. NLCs are sensitive to the solar cycle because their formation depends on background temperature and the H2O concentration. The solar cycle affects the H2O concentration in the upper mesosphere mainly in two ways: directly through the photolysis and, at the time and place of NLC formation, indirectly through temperature changes. We found that H2O concentration correlates positively with the temperature changes due to the solar cycle at altitudes above about 82 km, where NLCs form. The photolysis effect leads to an anti-correlation of H2O concentration and solar Lyman-α radiation, which gets even more pronounced at altitudes below ∼83 km when NLCs are present. We studied the H2O response to Lyman-α variability for the period 1992 to 2018, including the two most recent solar cycles. The amplitude of Lyman-α variation decreased by about 40 % in the period 2005 to 2018 compared to the preceding solar cycle, resulting in a lower H2O response in the late period. We investigated the effect of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the H2O response throughout the solar cycle by performing model runs with and without increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The increase of methane and carbon dioxide amplifies the response of water vapour to the solar variability. Applying the geometry of satellite observations, we find a missing response when averaging over altitudes of 80 to 85 km, where H2O has a positive response and a negative response (depending on altitude), which largely cancel each other out. One main finding is that, during NLCs, the solar cycle response of H2O strongly depends on altitude.
- ItemLocal stratopause temperature variabilities and their embedding in the global context(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Eixmann, Ronald; Matthias, Vivien; Höffner, Josef; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, MichaelThe stratopause is by definition the transition between the stratosphere and mesosphere. During winter the circulation at mid-latitudes and high latitudes in the stratosphere is mainly driven by quasi-stationary planetary waves (PWs), while the circulation in the mesosphere is mainly driven by gravity waves (GWs). The question arises of whether PWs or GWs dominate the variability of the stratopause. The most famous and dramatic variability of the middle atmosphere is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) generated by PWs interacting with the polar vortex. A similar phenomenon but smaller in magnitude and more regional is stratopause temperature enhancements (STEs) initially observed by local measurements and generated by breaking PWs. Thus it seems that PWs dominate the variability of the stratopause. In this study we want to quantify to which extent quasi-stationary PWs contribute to the stratopause variability. To do that we combine local lidar observations at Kühlungsborn (54∘ N, 11∘ E) and Andenes (69∘ N, 16∘ E) with global MERRA-2 reanalysis data bringing the local variability of the stratopause into the global context. Therefore we compare the temperature time series at Kühlungsborn and Andenes at 2 hPa, the altitude where STEs maximize, with characteristics (amplitude and phase) of PWs with wave numbers 1, 2 and 3. We found that for Kühlungsborn and Andenes 98 % of the local day-to-day variability of the stratopause can be explained by the variability of PWs with wave number 1, 2 and 3. Thus, the winter stratopause day-to-day variability is highly dominated by the variability of PWs.
- ItemA Method for Retrieving Stratospheric Aerosol Extinction and Particle Size from Ground-Based Rayleigh-Mie-Raman Lidar Observations(Basel, Switzerland : MDPI AG, 2020) Zalach, Jacob; von Savigny, Christian; Langenbach, Arvid; Baumgarten, Gerd; Lübken, Franz-Josef; Bourassa, AdamWe report on the retrieval of stratospheric aerosol particle size and extinction coefficient profiles from multi-color backscatter measurements with the Rayleigh-Mie-Raman lidar operated at the Arctic Lidar Observatory for Middle Atmosphere Research (ALOMAR) in northern Norway. The retrievals are based on a two-step approach. In a first step, the median radius of an assumed monomodal log-normal particle size distribution with fixed width is retrieved based on a color index formed from the measured backscatter ratios at the wavelengths of 1064nm and 532 nm. An intrinsic ambiguity of the retrieved aerosol size information is discussed. In a second step, this particle size information is used to convert the measured lidar backscatter ratio to aerosol extinction coefficients. The retrieval is currently based on monthly-averaged lidar measurements and the results for March 2013 are discussed. A sensitivity study is presented that allows for establishing an error budget for the aerosol retrievals. Assuming a monomodal log-normal aerosol particle size distribution with a geometric width of S = 1.5, median radii on the order of below 100 nm are retrieved. The median radii are found to generally decrease with increasing altitude. The retrieved aerosol extinction profiles are compared to observations with the OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System) and the OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping Profiling Suite Limb Profiler) satellite instruments in the 60° N to 80° N latitude band. The extinction profiles that were retrieved from the lidar measurements show good agreement with the observations of the two satellite instruments when taking the different wavelengths of the instruments into account. © 2020 by the authors.
- ItemOn the Buoyancy Subrange in Stratified Turbulence(Basel : MDPI AG, 2020) Avsarkisov, VictorThis study is motivated by the importance of the stratified turbulence in geophysical flows. We present a theoretical analysis of the buoyancy subrange based on the theory of strongly stratified turbulence. Some important turbulent scales and their relations are explored. Scaling constants of the buoyancy subrange scaling laws for both kinetic and potential energy spectra are derived and analyzed. It is found that these constants are functions of the horizontal Froude number Frh . For the potential energy spectrum, the scaling constant also depends on the turbulent flux coefficient of Γ .
- ItemEffectivity and Cost Efficiency of a Tax on Nitrogen Fertilizer to Reduce GHG Emissions from Agriculture(Basel : MDPI AG, 2020) Meyer-Aurich, Andreas; Nadi Karatay, Yusuf; Nausediene, Ausra; Kirschke, DieterThe use of nitrogen (N) fertilizer substantially contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to N2O emissions from agricultural soils and energy-intensive fertilizer manufacturing. Thus, a reduction of mineral N fertilizer use can contribute to reduced GHG emissions. Fertilizer tax is a potential instrument to provide incentives to apply less fertilizer and contribute to the mitigation of GHG emissions. This study provides model results based on a production function analysis from field experiments in Brandenburg and Schleswig-Holstein, with respect to risk aversion by calculating certainty equivalents for different levels of risk aversion. The model results were used to identify effective and cost-efficient options considering farmers’ risk aversion to reduce N fertilizer, and to compare the potential and cost of GHG mitigation with different N fertilizer tax schemes. The results show that moderate N tax levels are effective in reducing N fertilizer levels, and thus, in curbing GHG emissions at costs below 100 €/t CO2eq for rye, barley and canola. However, in wheat production, N tax has limited effects on economically optimal N use due to the effects of N fertilizer on crop quality, which affect the sale prices of wheat. The findings indicate that the level of risk aversion does not have a consistent impact on the reduction of N fertilizer with a tax, even though the level of N fertilizer use is generally lower for risk-averse agents. The differences in N fertilizer response might have an impact on the relative advantage of different crops, which should be taken into account for an effective implementation of a tax on N fertilizer.
- ItemMultivariate non-parametric Euclidean distance model for hourly disaggregation of daily climate data(Wien [u.a.] : Springer, 2021) Görner, Christina; Franke, Johannes; Kronenberg, Rico; Hellmuth, Olaf; Bernhofer, ChristianThe algorithm for and results of a newly developed multivariate non-parametric model, the Euclidean distance model (EDM), for the hourly disaggregation of daily climate data are presented here. The EDM is a resampling method based on the assumption that the day to be disaggregated has already occurred once in the past. The Euclidean distance (ED) serves as a measure of similarity to select the most similar day from historical records. EDM is designed to disaggregate daily means/sums of several climate elements at once, here temperature (T), precipitation (P), sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (rH), and wind speed (WS), while conserving physical consistency over all disaggregated elements. Since weather conditions and hence the diurnal cycles of climate elements depend on the weather pattern, a selection approach including objective weather patterns (OWP) was developed. The OWP serve as an additional criterion to filter the most similar day. For a case study, EDM was applied to the daily climate data of the stations Dresden and Fichtelberg (Saxony, Germany). The EDM results agree well with the observed data, maintaining their statistics. Hourly results fit better for climate elements with homogenous diurnal cycles, e.g., T with very high correlations of up to 0.99. In contrast, the hourly results of the SD and the WS provide correlations up to 0.79. EDM tends to overestimate heavy precipitation rates, e.g., by up to 15% for Dresden and 26% for Fichtelberg, potentially due to, e.g., the smaller data pool for such events, and the equal-weighted impact of P in the ED calculation. The OWPs lead to somewhat improved results for all climate elements in terms of similar climate conditions of the basic stations. Finally, the performance of EDM is compared with the disaggregation tool MELODIST (Förster et al. 2015). Both tools deliver comparable and well corresponding results. All analyses of the generated hourly data show that EDM is a very robust and flexible model that can be applied to any climate station. Since EDM can disaggregate daily data of climate projections, future research should address whether the model is capable to respect and (re)produce future climate trends. Further, possible improvements by including the flow direction and future OWPs should be investigated, also with regard to reduce the overestimation of heavy rainfall rates.
- ItemFuture tree survival in European forests depends on understorey tree diversity(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2022) Billing, Maik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Sakschewski, Boris; Bloh, Werner von; Walz, ArianeClimate change heavily threatens forest ecosystems worldwide and there is urgent need to understand what controls tree survival and forests stability. There is evidence that biodiversity can enhance ecosystem stability (Loreau and de Mazancourt in Ecol Lett 16:106–115, 2013; McCann in Nature 405:228–233, 2000), however it remains largely unclear whether this also holds for climate change and what aspects of biodiversity might be most important. Here we apply machine learning to outputs of a flexible-trait Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to unravel the effects of enhanced functional tree trait diversity and its sub-components on climate-change resistance of temperate forests (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~billing/video/Forest_Resistance_LPJmLFIT.mp4). We find that functional tree trait diversity enhances forest resistance. We explain this with 1. stronger complementarity effects (~ 25% importance) especially improving the survival of trees in the understorey of up to + 16.8% (± 1.6%) and 2. environmental and competitive filtering of trees better adapted to future climate (40–87% importance). We conclude that forests containing functionally diverse trees better resist and adapt to future conditions. In this context, we especially highlight the role of functionally diverse understorey trees as they provide the fundament for better survival of young trees and filtering of resistant tree individuals in the future.
- ItemDrilling Overdeepened Alpine Valleys (ICDP-DOVE): Quantifying the age, extent, and environmental impact of Alpine glaciations(Sapporo : IODP, 2022) Anselmetti, Flavio S.; Bavec, Milos; Crouzet, Christian; Fiebig, Markus; Gabriel, Gerald; Preusser, Frank; Ravazzi, CesareThe sedimentary infill of glacially overdeepened valleys (i.e., structures eroded below the fluvial base level) is an excellent but yet underexplored archive with regard to the age, extent, and nature of past glaciations. The ICDP project DOVE (Drilling Overdeepened Alpine Valleys) Phase 1 investigates a series of drill cores from glacially overdeepened troughs at several locations along the northern front of the Alps. All sites will be investigated with regard to several aspects of environmental dynamics during the Quaternary, with focus on the glaciation, vegetation, and landscape history. Geophysical methods (e.g., seismic surveys), for example, will explore the geometry of overdeepened structures to better understand the process of overdeepening. Sedimentological analyses combined with downhole logging, analysis of biological remains, and state-of-the-art geochronological methods, will enable us to reconstruct the erosion and sedimentation history of the overdeepened troughs. This approach is expected to yield significant novel data quantifying the extent and timing of Middle and Late Pleistocene glaciations of the Alps. In a first phase, two sites were drilled in late 2021 into filled overdeepenings below the paleolobe of the Rhine Glacier, and both recovered a trough filling composed of multiphase glacial sequences. Fully cored Hole 5068_1_C reached a depth of 165m and recovered 10m molasse bedrock at the base. This hole will be used together with two flush holes (5068_1_A, 5068_1_B) for further geophysical cross-well experiments. Site 5068_2 reached a depth of 255m and bottomed out near the soft rock-bedrock contact. These two sites are complemented by three legacy drill sites that previously recovered filled overdeepenings below the more eastern Alpine Isar-Loisach, Salzach, and Traun paleoglacier lobes (5068_3, 5068_4, 5068_5). All analysis and interpretations of this DOVE Phase 1 will eventually lay the ground for an upcoming Phase 2 that will complete the pan-Alpine approach. This follow-up phase will investigate overdeepenings formerly occupied by paleoglacier lobes from the western and southern Alpine margins through drilling sites in France, Italy, and Slovenia. Available geological information and infrastructure make the Alps an ideal area to study overdeepened structures; however, the expected results of this study will not be restricted to the Alps. Such features are also known from other formerly glaciated mountain ranges, which are less studied than the Alps and more problematic with regards to drilling logistics. The results of this study will serve as textbook concepts to understand a full range of geological processes relevant to formerly glaciated areas all over our planet.