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- ItemEarly Warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase Transition Using Complex Network Analysis(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2021) Lu, Zhenghui; Yuan, Naiming; Yang, Qing; Ma, Zhuguo; Kurths, JürgenObtaining an efficient prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase transition is a worldwide challenge. Here, we employed the climate network analysis to uncover early warning signals prior to a PDO phase transition. This way an examination of cooperative behavior in the PDO region revealed an enhanced signal that propagated from the western Pacific to the northwest coast of North America. The detection of this signal corresponds very well to the time when the upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial northwestern tropical Pacific reaches a threshold, in which case a PDO phase transition may be expected with the arising of the next El Ni urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0001o/La Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0002 a event. The objectively detected early warning signal successfully forewarned all the six PDO phase transitions from the 1890–2000, and also underpinned the possible PDO phase transition around 2015, which may be triggered by the strong El Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0003o event in 2015–2016.
- ItemQuasi‐10‐Day Wave and Semidiurnal Tide Nonlinear Interactions During the Southern Hemispheric SSW 2019 Observed in the Northern Hemispheric Mesosphere(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) He, Maosheng; Chau, Jorge L.; Forbes, Jeffrey M.; Thorsen, Denise; Li, Guozhu; Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Hocking, Wayne K.Mesospheric winds from three longitudinal sectors at 65°N and 54°N latitude are combined to diagnose the zonal wave numbers (m) of spectral wave signatures during the Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) 2019. Diagnosed are quasi-10- and 6-day planetary waves (Q10DW and Q6DW, m = 1), solar semidiurnal tides with m = 1, 2, 3 (SW1, SW2, and SW3), lunar semidiurnal tide, and the upper and lower sidebands (USB and LSB, m = 1 and 3) of Q10DW-SW2 nonlinear interactions. We further present 7-year composite analyses to distinguish SSW effects from climatological features. Before (after) the SSW onset, LSB (USB) enhances, accompanied by the enhancing (fading) Q10DW, and a weakening of climatological SW2 maximum. These behaviors are explained in terms of Manley-Rowe relation, that is, the energy goes first from SW2 to Q10DW and LSB, and then from SW2 and Q10DW to USB. Our results illustrate that the interactions can explain most wind variabilities associated with the SSW. © 2020. The Authors.
- ItemThe Effect of Obliquity-Driven Changes on Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Late Pleistocene(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2018) Köhler, Peter; Knorr, Gregor; Stap, Lennert B.; Ganopolski, Andrey; de Boer, Bas; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Barker, Stephen; Rüpke, Lars H.We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state-dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multimillennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction-based extrapolation of S for the future, we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg-CO2 divergence and find that S is less state-dependent, or even constant state-independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.
- ItemUsing Principal Component Analysis of Satellite and Ground Magnetic Data to Model the Equatorial Electrojet and Derive Its Tidal Composition(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2022) Soares, Gabriel; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Morschhauser, Achim; Matzka, Jürgen; Pinheiro, Katia J.; Stolle, Claudia; Alken, Patrick; Yoshikawa, Akimasa; Hozumi, Kornyanat; Kulkarni, Atul; Supnithi, PornchaiThe intensity of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) shows temporal and spatial variability that is not yet fully understood nor accurately modeled. Atmospheric solar tides are among the main drivers of this variability but determining different tidal components and their respective time series is challenging. It requires good temporal and spatial coverage with observations, which, previously could only be achieved by accumulating data over many years. Here, we propose a new technique for modeling the EEJ based on principal component analysis (PCA) of a hybrid ground-satellite geomagnetic data set. The proposed PCA-based model (PCEEJ) represents the observed EEJ better than the climatological EEJM-2 model, especially when there is good local time separation among the satellites involved. The amplitudes of various solar tidal modes are determined from PCEEJ based tidal equation fitting. This allows to evaluate interannual and intraannual changes of solar tidal signatures in the EEJ. On average, the obtained time series of migrating and nonmigrating tides agree with the average climatology available from earlier work. A comparison of tidal signatures in the EEJ with tides derived from neutral atmosphere temperature observations show a remarkable correlation for nonmigrating tides such as DE3, DE2, DE4, and SW4. The results indicate that it is possible to obtain a meaningful EEJ spectrum related to solar tides for a relatively short time interval of 70 days.
- ItemFour-Dimensional Quantification of Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities in the Polar SummerMesosphere Using Volumetric Radar Imaging(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) Chau, J.L.; Urco, J.M.; Avsarkisov, V.; Vierinen, J.P.; Latteck, R.; Hall, C.M.; Tsutsumi, M.We present and characterize in time and three spatial dimensions a Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability (KHI) event from polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) observed with the Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System. We use a newly developed radar imaging mode, which observed PMSE intensity and line of sight velocity with high temporal and angular resolution. The identified KHI event occurs in a narrow layer of 2.4 km thickness centered at 85 km altitude, is elongated along north-south direction, presents separation between billows of ~ 8 km in the east-west direction, and its billow width is ~ 3 km. The accompanying vertical gradients of the horizontal wind are between 35 and 45 m/s/km and vertical velocities inside the billows are ± 12 m/s. Based on the estimated Richardson (< 0.25), horizontal Froude ( ~ 0.8), and buoyancy Reynolds ( ~ 2.5 × 10 4) numbers, the observed event is a KHI that occurs under weak stratification and generates strong turbulence. © 2019. The Authors.
- ItemZonalWave Number Diagnosis of RossbyWave-Like Oscillations Using Paired Ground-Based Radars(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) He, Maosheng; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Hoffmann, Peter; Hall, Chris M.; Tsutsumi, Masaki; Li, Guozhu; Chau, Jorge LuisFree traveling Rossby wave normal modes (RNMs) are often investigated through large-scale space-time spectral analyses, which therefore is subject to observational availability, especially in the mesosphere. Ground-based mesospheric observations were broadly used to identify RNMs mostly according to the periods of RNMs without resolving their horizontal scales. The current study diagnoses zonal wave numbers of RNM-like oscillations occurring in mesospheric winds observed by two meteor radars at about 79°N. We explore four winters comprising the major stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs) 2009, 2010, and 2013. Diagnosed are predominant oscillations at the periods of 10 and 16 days lasting mostly for three to five whole cycles. All dominant oscillations are associated with westward zonal wave number m=1, excepting one 16-day oscillation associated with m=2. We discuss the m=1 oscillations as transient RNMs and the m=2 oscillation as a secondary wave of nonlinear interaction between an RNM and a stationary Rossby wave. All the oscillations occur around onsets of the three SSWs, suggesting associations between RNMs and SSWs. For comparison, we also explore the wind collected by a similar network at 54°N during 2012–2016. Explored is a manifestation of 5-day wave, namely, an oscillation at 5–7 days with m=1), around the onset of SSW 2013, supporting the associations between RNMs and SSWs. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemSoil hydraulic interpretation of nuclear magnetic resonance measurements based on circular and triangular capillary models(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2021) Costabel, Stephan; Hiller, ThomasGeophysical nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) applications are used to estimate pore size distributions (PSDs) of rocks and sediments. This is commonly realized by empirical calibration using information about the surface-to-volume ratio of the material. Recent research has developed joint inversion concepts for NMR relaxation data that provides the PSD with a minimum of information. The application requires the NMR signal of a sample at saturation and at least one at partial saturation and at known suction. The new inversion concept physically simulates the desaturation process as part of the forward operator. The cross-section of the model capillaries in the underlying bundle can be either circular or triangular. Our study investigates the performance of the NMR joint inversion to predict water retention function (WRF) and capillary-based hydraulic conductivity (Kcap) as functions of saturation for different sands. The angularity of the pores has no significant impact on the estimated WRF but affects the Kcap estimation significantly. Our study shows that the WRF is predicted reliably for sand samples under fast diffusion conditions. The Kcap estimations are also plausible but tend to systematic overestimation, for which we identified the tortuosity being the main reason. Because NMR relaxation data generally do not provide tortuosity information, a plausible tortuosity model remains an issue of classical calibration. Further development of the approach will thus consider tortuosity measurements (e.g., by electrical resistivity measurements and/or gradient NMR) and will consider the relaxation mechanisms outside fast diffusion conditions to enhance its applicability for coarse soils.
- ItemMultimodel Evaluation of Nitrous Oxide Emissions From an Intensively Managed Grassland(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) Fuchs, Kathrin; Merbold, Lutz; Buchmann, Nina; Bretscher, Daniel; Brilli, Lorenzo; Fitton, Nuala; Topp, Cairistiona F.E.; Klumpp, Katja; Lieffering, Mark; Martin, Raphaël; Newton, Paul C.D.; Rees, Robert M.; Rolinski, Susanne; Smith, Pete; Snow, ValProcess-based models are useful for assessing the impact of changing management practices and climate on yields and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems such as grasslands. They can be used to construct national GHG inventories using a Tier 3 approach. However, accurate simulations of nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes remain challenging. Models are limited by our understanding of soil-plant-microbe interactions and the impact of uncertainty in measured input parameters on simulated outputs. To improve model performance, thorough evaluations against in situ measurements are needed. Experimental data of N2O emissions under two management practices (control with typical fertilization versus increased clover and no fertilization) were acquired in a Swiss field experiment. We conducted a multimodel evaluation with three commonly used biogeochemical models (DayCent in two variants, PaSim, APSIM in two variants) comparing four years of data. DayCent was the most accurate model for simulating N2O fluxes on annual timescales, while APSIM was most accurate for daily N2O fluxes. The multimodel ensemble average reduced the error in estimated annual fluxes by 41% compared to an estimate using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-derived method for the Swiss agricultural GHG inventory (IPCC-Swiss), but individual models were not systematically more accurate than IPCC-Swiss. The model ensemble overestimated the N2O mitigation effect of the clover-based treatment (measured: 39–45%; ensemble: 52–57%) but was more accurate than IPCC-Swiss (IPCC-Swiss: 72–81%). These results suggest that multimodel ensembles are valuable for estimating the impact of climate and management on N2O emissions. ©2019. The Authors.
- ItemPMC Turbo : Studying Gravity Wave and Instability Dynamics in the Summer Mesosphere Using Polar Mesospheric Cloud Imaging and Profiling From a Stratospheric Balloon(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Fritts, David C.; Miller, Amber D.; Kjellstrand, C. Bjorn; Geach, Christopher; Williams, Bifford P.; Kaifler, Bernd; Kaifler, Natalie; Jones, Glenn; Rapp, Markus; Limon, Michele; Reimuller, Jason; Wang, Ling; Hanany, Shaul; Gisinger, Sonja; Zhao, Yucheng; Stober, Gunter; Randall, Cora E.The Polar Mesospheric Cloud Turbulence (PMC Turbo) experiment was designed to observe and quantify the dynamics of small-scale gravity waves (GWs) and instabilities leading to turbulence in the upper mesosphere during polar summer using instruments aboard a stratospheric balloon. The PMC Turbo scientific payload comprised seven high-resolution cameras and a Rayleigh lidar. Overlapping wide and narrow camera field of views from the balloon altitude of ~38 km enabled resolution of features extending from ~20 m to ~100 km at the PMC layer altitude of ~82 km. The Rayleigh lidar provided profiles of temperature below the PMC altitudes and of the PMCs throughout the flight. PMCs were imaged during an ~5.9-day flight from Esrange, Sweden, to Northern Canada in July 2018. These data reveal sensitivity of the PMCs and the dynamics driving their structure and variability to tropospheric weather and larger-scale GWs and tides at the PMC altitudes. Initial results reveal strong modulation of PMC presence and brightness by larger-scale waves, significant variability in the occurrence of GWs and instability dynamics on time scales of hours, and a diversity of small-scale dynamics leading to instabilities and turbulence at smaller scales. At multiple times, the overall field of view was dominated by extensive and nearly continuous GWs and instabilities at horizontal scales from ~2 to 100 km, suggesting sustained turbulence generation and persistence. At other times, GWs were less pronounced and instabilities were localized and/or weaker, but not absent. An overview of the PMC Turbo experiment motivations, scientific goals, and initial results is presented here. © 2019. The Authors.
- ItemA study of the dissociative recombination of CaO+ with electrons: Implications for Ca chemistry in the upper atmosphere(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2016) Bones, D.L.; Gerding, M.; Höffner, J.; Gómez Martín, Juan Carlos; Plane, J.M.C.The dissociative recombination of CaO+ ions with electrons has been studied in a flowing afterglow reactor. CaO+ was generated by the pulsed laser ablation of a Ca target, followed by entrainment in an Ar+ ion/electron plasma. A kinetic model describing the gas-phase chemistry and diffusion to the reactor walls was fitted to the experimental data, yielding a rate coefficient of (3.0 ± 1.0) × 10−7 cm3 molecule−1 s−1 at 295 K. This result has two atmospheric implications. First, the surprising observation that the Ca+/Fe+ ratio is ~8 times larger than Ca/Fe between 90 and 100 km in the atmosphere can now be explained quantitatively by the known ion-molecule chemistry of these two metals. Second, the rate of neutralization of Ca+ ions in a descending sporadic E layer is fast enough to explain the often explosive growth of sporadic neutral Ca layers.