Search Results
Greenhouse gas effects on the solar cycle response of water vapour and noctilucent clouds
The responses of water vapour (H2O) and noctilucent clouds (NLCs) to the solar cycle are studied using the Leibniz Institute for Middle Atmosphere (LIMA) model and the Mesospheric Ice Microphysics And tranSport (MIMAS) model. NLCs are sensitive to the solar cycle because their formation depends on background temperature and the H2O concentration. The solar cycle affects the H2O concentration in the upper mesosphere mainly in two ways: directly through the photolysis and, at the time and place of NLC formation, indirectly through temperature changes. We found that H2O concentration correlates positively with the temperature changes due to the solar cycle at altitudes above about 82 km, where NLCs form. The photolysis effect leads to an anti-correlation of H2O concentration and solar Lyman-α radiation, which gets even more pronounced at altitudes below ∼83 km when NLCs are present. We studied the H2O response to Lyman-α variability for the period 1992 to 2018, including the two most recent solar cycles. The amplitude of Lyman-α variation decreased by about 40 % in the period 2005 to 2018 compared to the preceding solar cycle, resulting in a lower H2O response in the late period. We investigated the effect of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the H2O response throughout the solar cycle by performing model runs with and without increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The increase of methane and carbon dioxide amplifies the response of water vapour to the solar variability. Applying the geometry of satellite observations, we find a missing response when averaging over altitudes of 80 to 85 km, where H2O has a positive response and a negative response (depending on altitude), which largely cancel each other out. One main finding is that, during NLCs, the solar cycle response of H2O strongly depends on altitude.
Wildfire smoke triggers cirrus formation: Lidar observations over the eastern Mediterranean
The number of intense wildfires may increase further in upcoming years as a consequence of climate change. It is therefore necessary to improve our knowledge about the role of smoke in the climate system, with emphasis on the impact of smoke particles on the evolution of clouds, precipitation, and cloud radiative properties. Presently, one key aspect of research is whether or not wildfire smoke particles can initiate cirrus formation. In this study, we present lidar observations over Limassol, Cyprus, from 27 October to 3 November 2020, when extended wildfire smoke fields crossed the Mediterranean Basin from Portugal to Cyprus. We found strong evidence that aged smoke (organic aerosol particles) originating from wildfires in North America triggered significant ice nucleation at temperatures from -47 to -53° C and caused the formation of extended cirrus layers. The observations suggest that the ice crystals were nucleated just below the tropopause in the presence of smoke particles serving as ice-nucleating particles (INPs). The main part of the 2-3km thick smoke layer was, however, in the lower stratosphere just above the tropopause. With actual radiosonde observations of temperature and relative humidity and lidar-derived smoke particle surface area concentrations used as starting values, gravity wave simulations show that the lofting of air by 100-200m is sufficient to initiate significant ice nucleation on the smoke particles, leading to ice crystal number concentrations of 1-100L-1.
Tracing the Snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics
The instability with respect to global glaciation is a fundamental property of the climate system caused by the positive ice-albedo feedback. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) at which this Snowball bifurcation occurs changes through Earth's history, most notably because of the slowly increasing solar luminosity. Quantifying this critical CO2 concentration is not only interesting from a climate dynamics perspective but also constitutes an important prerequisite for understanding past Snowball Earth episodes, as well as the conditions for habitability on Earth and other planets. Earlier studies are limited to investigations with very simple climate models for Earth's entire history or studies of individual time slices carried out with a variety of more complex models and for different boundary conditions, making comparisons and the identification of secular changes difficult. Here, we use a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity to trace the Snowball bifurcation of an aquaplanet through Earth's history in one consistent model framework. We find that the critical CO2 concentration decreased more or less logarithmically with increasing solar luminosity until about 1 billion years ago but dropped faster in more recent times. Furthermore, there was a fundamental shift in the dynamics of the critical state about 1.2 billion years ago (unrelated to the downturn in critical CO2 values), driven by the interplay of wind-driven sea-ice dynamics and the surface energy balance: for critical states at low solar luminosities, the ice line lies in the Ferrel cell, stabilised by the poleward winds despite moderate meridional temperature gradients under strong greenhouse warming. For critical states at high solar luminosities, on the other hand, the ice line rests at the Hadley cell boundary, stabilised against the equatorward winds by steep meridional temperature gradients resulting from the increased solar energy input at lower latitudes and stronger Ekman transport in the ocean.
The role of atmospheric rivers in the distribution of heavy precipitation events over North America
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filaments of extensive water vapor transport in the lower troposphere that play a crucial role in the distribution of freshwater but can also cause natural and economic damage by facilitating heavy precipitation. Here, we investigate the large-scale spatiotemporal synchronization patterns of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) over the western coast and the continental regions of North America (NA), during the period from 1979 to 2018. In particular, we use event synchronization and a complex network approach incorporating varying delays to examine the temporal evolution of spatial patterns of HPEs in the aftermath of land-falling ARs. For that, we employ the SIO-R1 catalog of ARs that landfall on the western coast of NA, ranked in terms of intensity and persistence on an AR-strength scale which varies from level AR1 to AR5, along with daily precipitation estimates from ERA5 with a 0.25'spatial resolution. Our analysis reveals a cascade of synchronized HPEs, triggered by ARs of level AR3 or higher. On the first 3d after an AR makes landfall, HPEs mostly occur and synchronize along the western coast of NA. In the subsequent days, moisture can be transported to central and eastern Canada and cause synchronized but delayed HPEs there. Furthermore, we confirm the robustness of our findings with an additional AR catalog based on a different AR detection method. Finally, analyzing the anomalies of integrated water vapor transport, geopotential height, upper-level meridional wind, and precipitation, we find atmospheric circulation patterns that are consistent with the spatiotemporal evolution of the synchronized HPEs. Revealing the role of ARs in the precipitation patterns over NA will lead to a better understanding of inland HPEs and the effects that changing climate dynamics will have on precipitation occurrence and consequent impacts in the context of a warming atmosphere.
How the extreme 2019-2020 Australian wildfires affected global circulation and adjustments
Wildfires are a significant source of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere. Extreme fires in particular, such as those during the 2019-2020 Australian wildfire season (Black Summer fires), can have considerable large-scale effects. In this context, the climate impact of extreme wildfires unfolds not only because of the emitted carbon dioxide but also due to smoke aerosol released up to an altitude of 17ĝ€¯km. The overall aerosol effects depend on a variety of factors, such as the amount emitted, the injection height, and the composition of the burned material, and is therefore subject to considerable uncertainty. In the present study, we address the global impact caused by the exceptionally strong and high-reaching smoke emissions from the Australian wildfires using simulations with a global aerosol-climate model. We show that the absorption of solar radiation by the black carbon contained in the emitted smoke led to a shortwave radiative forcing of more than +5ĝ€¯Wm-2 in the southern mid-latitudes of the lower stratosphere. Subsequent adjustment processes in the stratosphere slowed down the diabatically driven meridional circulation, thus redistributing the heating perturbation on a global scale. As a result of these stratospheric adjustments, a positive temperature perturbation developed in both hemispheres, leading to additional longwave radiation emitted back to space. According to the model results, this adjustment occurred in the stratosphere within the first 2 months after the event. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), the net effective radiative forcing (ERF) averaged over the Southern Hemisphere was initially dominated by the instantaneous positive radiative forcing of about +0.5ĝ€¯Wm-2, for which the positive sign resulted mainly from the presence of clouds above the Southern Ocean. The longwave adjustments led to a compensation of the initially net positive TOA ERF, which is seen in the Southern Hemisphere, the tropics, and the northern mid-latitudes. The simulated changes in the lower stratosphere also affected the upper troposphere through a thermodynamic downward coupling. Subsequently, increased temperatures were also obtained in the upper troposphere, causing a global decrease in relative humidity, cirrus amount, and the ice water path of about 0.2ĝ€¯%. As a result, surface precipitation also decreased by a similar amount, which was accompanied by a weakening of the tropospheric circulation due to the given energetic constraints. In general, it appears that the radiative effects of smoke from single extreme wildfire events can lead to global impacts that affect the interplay of tropospheric and stratospheric budgets in complex ways. This emphasizes that future changes in extreme wildfires need to be included in projections of aerosol radiative forcing.
Ground-based noontime D-region electron density climatology over northern Norway
The bottom part of the Earth's ionosphere is the so-called D region, which is typically less dense than the upper regions. Despite the comparably lower electron density, the ionization state of the D region has a significant influence on signal absorption for propagating lower to medium radio frequencies. We present local noon climatologies of electron densities in the upper middle atmosphere (50-90km) at high latitudes as observed by an active radar experiment. The radar measurements cover 9 years (2014-2022) from the solar maximum of cycle 24 to the beginning of cycle 25. Reliable electron densities are derived by employing signal processing, applying interferometry methods, and applying the Faraday-International Reference Ionosphere (FIRI) model. For all years a consistent spring-fall asymmetry of the electron density pattern with a gradual increase during summer as well as a sharp decrease at the beginning of October was found. These findings are consistent with very low frequency (VLF) studies showing equivalent signatures for nearby propagation paths. It is suggested that the meridional circulation associated with downwelling in winter could cause enhanced electron densities through NO transport. However, this mechanism can not explain the reduction in electron density in early October.
Modelling the role of livestock grazing in C and N cycling in grasslands with LPJmL5.0-grazing
To represent the impact of grazing livestock on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in grasslands, we implement a livestock module into LPJmL5.0-tillage, a global vegetation and crop model with explicit representation of managed grasslands and pastures, forming LPJmL5.0-grazing. The livestock module uses lactating dairy cows as a generic representation of grazing livestock. The new module explicitly accounts for forage quality in terms of dry-matter intake and digestibility using relationships derived from compositional analyses for different forages. Partitioning of N into milk, feces, and urine as simulated by the new livestock module shows very good agreement with observation-based relationships reported in the literature. Modelled C and N dynamics depend on forage quality (C:N ratios in grazed biomass), forage quantity, livestock densities, manure or fertilizer inputs, soil, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate conditions. Due to the many interacting relationships, C sequestration, GHG emissions, N losses, and livestock productivity show substantial variation in space and across livestock densities. The improved LPJmL5.0-grazing model can now assess the effects of livestock grazing on C and N stocks and fluxes in grasslands. It can also provide insights about the spatio-temporal variability of grassland productivity and about the trade-offs between livestock production and environmental impacts.
Air pollution trapping in the Dresden Basin from gray-zone scale urban modeling
The microscale variability of urban air pollution is essentially driven by the interaction between meteorology and urban topography, which remains challenging to represent spatially accurately and computationally efficiently in urban dispersion models. Natural topography can additionally exert a considerable amplifying effect on urban background pollution, depending on atmospheric stability. This requires an equally important representation in models, as even subtle terrain-height variations can enforce characteristic local flow regimes. In this model study, the effects of urban and natural topography on the local winds and air pollution dispersion in the Dresden Basin in the Eastern German Elbe valley are investigated. A new, efficient urban microscale model is used within a multiscale air quality modeling framework. The simulations that consider real meteorological and emission conditions focus on two periods in late winter and early summer, respectively, as well as on black carbon (BC), a key air pollutant mainly emitted from motorized traffic. As a complement to the commonly used mass concentrations, the particle age content (age concentration) is simulated. This concept, which was originally developed to study hydrological reservoir flows in a Eulerian framework, is adapted here for the first time for atmospheric boundary-layer modeling. The approach is used to identify stagnant or recirculating orographic air flows and resulting air pollution trapping. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the simulation results to attribute the air pollution modes to specific weather patterns and quantify their significance. Air quality monitoring data for the region are used for model evaluation. The model results show a strong sensitivity to atmospheric conditions, but generally confirm increased BC levels in Dresden due to the valley location. The horizontal variability of mass concentrations is dominated by the patterns of traffic emissions, which overlay potential orography-driven pollutant accumulations. Therefore, an assessment of the orographic impact on air pollution is usually inconclusive. However, using the age-concentration metric, which filters out direct emission effects, previously undetected spatial patterns are discovered that are largely modulated by the surface orography. The comparison with a dispersion simulation assuming spatially homogeneous emissions also proves the robustness of the orographic flow information contained in the age-concentration distribution and shows it to be a suitable metric for assessing orographic air pollution trapping. The simulation analysis indicates several air quality hotspots on the southwestern slopes of the Dresden Basin and in the southern side valley, the Döhlen Basin, depending on the prevailing wind direction.
Overview: The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR)
Baltic Earth is an independent research network of scientists from all Baltic Sea countries that promotes regional Earth system research. Within the framework of this network, the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEARs) were produced in the period 2019-2022. These are a collection of 10 review articles summarising current knowledge on the environmental and climatic state of the Earth system in the Baltic Sea region and its changes in the past (palaeoclimate), present (historical period with instrumental observations) and prospective future (until 2100) caused by natural variability, climate change and other human activities. The division of topics among articles follows the grand challenges and selected themes of the Baltic Earth Science Plan, such as the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Each review article contains an introduction, the current state of knowledge, knowledge gaps, conclusions and key messages; the latter are the bases on which recommendations for future research are made. Based on the BEARs, Baltic Earth has published an information leaflet on climate change in the Baltic Sea as part of its outreach work, which has been published in two languages so far, and organised conferences and workshops for stakeholders, in collaboration with the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (Helsinki Commission, HELCOM).
A method to derive Fourier-wavelet spectra for the characterization of global-scale waves in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere and its MATLAB and Python software (fourierwavelet v1.1)
This paper describes a simple method for characterizing global-scale waves in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), such as tides and traveling planetary waves, using uniformly gridded two-dimensional longitude-Time data. The technique involves two steps. In the first step, the Fourier transform is performed in space (longitude), and then the time series of the space Fourier coefficients are derived. In the second step, the wavelet transform is performed on these time series, and wavelet coefficients are derived. A Fourier-wavelet spectrum can be obtained from these wavelet coefficients, which gives the amplitude and phase of the wave as a function of time and wave period. It can be used to identify wave activity that is localized in time, similar to a wavelet spectrum, but the Fourier-wavelet spectrum can be obtained separately for eastward-and westward-propagating components and for different zonal wavenumbers. The Fourier-wavelet analysis can be easily implemented using existing Fourier and wavelet software. MATLAB and Python scripts are created and made available at https://igit.iap-kborn.de/yamazaki/fourierwavelet (last access: 18 August 2023) that compute Fourier-wavelet spectra using the wavelet software provided by . Some application examples are presented using MLT data from atmospheric models.