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- ItemThe Wunstorf Drilling Project: Coring a Global Stratigraphic Reference Section of the Oceanic Anoxic Event 2(Sapporo : IODP, 2007) Erbacher, Jochen; Mutterlose, Jőrg; Wilmsen, Markus; Wonik, Thomas[No abstract available]
- ItemEmission fluxes and atmospheric degradation of monoterpenes above a boreal forest: Field measurements and modelling(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2001) Spanke, Jörg; Rannik, Üllar; Forkel, Renate; Nigge, Walter; Hoffman, ThorstenThe contribution of monoterpenes to aerosol formation processes within and above forests is not well understood. This is also true for the particle formation events observed during the BIOFOR campaigns in Hyytiälä, Finland. Therefore, the diurnal variation of the concentrations of several biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and selected oxidation products in the gas and particle phase were measured on selected days during the campaigns in Hyytiälä, Finland. α-pinene and Δ3-carene were found to represent the most important monoterpenes above the boreal forest. A clear vertical gradient of their concentrations was observed together with a change of the relative monoterpene composition with height. Based on concentration profile measurements of monoterpenes, their fluxes above the forest canopy were calculated using the gradient approach. Most of the time, the BVOC fluxes show a clear diurnal variation with a maximum around noon. The highest fluxes were observed for α-pinene with values up to 20 ng m−2 s−1 in summer time and almost 100 ng m−2 s−1 during the spring campaign. Furthermore, the main oxidation products from α-pinene, pinonaldehyde, and from β-pinene, nopinone, were detected in the atmosphere above the forest. In addition to these more volatile oxidation products, pinic and pinonic acid were identified in the particle phase in a concentration range between 1 and 4 ng m−3. Beside these direct measurement of known oxidation products, the chemical sink term in the flux calculations was used to estimate the amount of product formation of the major terpenes (α-pinene, β-pinene, Δ3-carene). A production rate of very low volatile oxidation products (e.g., multifunctional carboxylic) from ·OH- and O3-reaction of monoterpenes of about 1.3·104 molecules cm−3 s−1 was estimated for daylight conditions during summer time. Additionally, model calculations with the one-dimensional multilayer model CACHE were carried out to investigate the diurnal course of BVOC fluxes and chemical degradation of terpenes.
- ItemReliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2004) Böhm, U.; Kücken, M.; Hauffe, D.; Gerstengarbe, E.-W.; Werner, P.C.; Flechsig, M.; Keuler, K.; Block, A.; Ahrens, W.; Nocke, T.We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Niño event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling.
- ItemTempting long-memory - on the interpretation of DFA results(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2004) Maraun, D.; Rust, H.W.; Timmer, J.We study the inference of long-range correlations by means of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and argue that power-law scaling of the fluctuation function and thus long-memory may not be assumed a priori but have to be established. This requires the investigation of the local slopes. We account for the variability characteristic for stochastic processes by calculating empirical confidence regions. Comparing a long-memory with a short-memory model shows that the inference of long-range correlations from a finite amount of data by means of DFA is not specific. We remark that scaling cannot be concluded from a straight line fit to the fluctuation function in a log-log representation. Furthermore, we show that a local slope larger than α=0.5 for large scales does not necessarily imply long-memory. We also demonstrate, that it is not valid to conclude from a finite scaling region of the fluctuation function to an equivalent scaling region of the autocorrelation function. Finally, we review DFA results for the Prague temperature data set and show that long-range correlations cannot not be concluded unambiguously.
- ItemReduction of biosphere life span as a consequence of geodynamics(Abingdon : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2000) Franck, S.; Block, A.; Von Bloh, W.; Bounama, C.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Svirezhev, Y.The long-term co-evolution of the geosphere-biosphere complex from the Proterozoic up to 1.5 billion years into the planet's future is investigated using a conceptual earth system model including the basic geodynamic processes. The model focusses on the global carbon cycles as mediated by life and driven by increasing solar luminosity and plate tectonics. The main CO2 sink, the weathering of silicates, is calculated as a function of biologic activity, global run-off and continental growth. The main CO2 source, tectonic processes dominated by sea-floor spreading, is determined using a novel semi-empirical scheme. Thus, a geodynamic extension of previous geostatic approaches can be achieved. As a major result of extensive numerical investigations, the 'terrestrial life corridor', i.e., the biogeophysical domain supporting a photosynthesis-based ecosphere in the planetary past and in the future, can be identified. Our findings imply, in particular, that the remaining life-span of the biosphere is considerably shorter (by a few hundred million years) than the value computed with geostatic models by other groups. The 'habitable-zone concept' is also revisited, revealing the band of orbital distances from the sun warranting earth-like conditions. It turns out that this habitable zone collapses completely in some 1.4 billion years from now as a consequence of geodynamics.
- ItemOverview of the international project on biogenic aerosol formation in the boreal forest (BIOFOR)(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2001) Kulmala, M.; Hämeri, K.; Aalto, P.P.; Mäkelä, J.M.; Pirjola, L.; Nilsson, E. Douglas; Buzorius, G.; Rannik, Ü.; Dal Maso, M.; Seidl, W.; Hoffman, T.; Janson, R.; Hansson, H.-C.; Viisanen, Y.; Laaksonen, A.; O’dowd, C.D.Aerosol formation and subsequent particle growth in ambient air have been frequently observed at a boreal forest site (SMEAR II station) in Southern Finland. The EU funded project BIOFOR (Biogenic aerosol formation in the boreal forest) has focused on: (a) determination of formation mechanisms of aerosol particles in the boreal forest site; (b) verification of emissions of secondary organic aerosols from the boreal forest site; and (c) quantification of the amount of condensable vapours produced in photochemical reactions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) leading to aerosol formation. The approach of the project was to combine the continuous measurements with a number of intensive field studies. These field studies were organised in three periods, two of which were during the most intense particle production season and one during a non-event season. Although the exact formation route for 3 nm particles remains unclear, the results can be summarised as follows: Nucleation was always connected to Arctic or Polar air advecting over the site, giving conditions for a stable nocturnal boundary layer followed by a rapid formation and growth of a turbulent convective mixed layer closely followed by formation of new particles. The nucleation seems to occur in the mixed layer or entrainment zone. However two more prerequisites seem to be necessary. A certain threshold of high enough sulphuric acid and ammonia concentrations is probably needed as the number of newly formed particles was correlated with the product of the sulphuric acid production and the ammonia concentrations. No such correlation was found with the oxidation products of terpenes. The condensation sink, i.e., effective particle area, is probably of importance as no nucleation was observed at high values of the condensation sink. From measurement of the hygroscopic properties of the nucleation particles it was found that inorganic compounds and hygroscopic organic compounds contributed both to the particle growth during daytime while at night time organic compounds dominated. Emissions rates for several gaseous compounds was determined. Using four independent ways to estimate the amount of the condensable vapour needed for observed growth of aerosol particles we get an estimate of 2–10×107 vapour molecules cm−3. The estimations for source rate give 7.5–11×104 cm−3 s−1. These results lead to the following conclusions: The most probable formation mechanism is ternary nucleation (water-sulphuric acid-ammonia). After nucleation, growth into observable sizes (~3 nm) is required before new particles appear. The major part of this growth is probably due to condensation of organic vapours. However, there is lack of direct proof of this phenomenon because the composition of 1–5 nm size particles is extremely difficult to determine using the present state-of-art instrumentation.
- ItemClimatic response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols versus well-mixed greenhouse gases from 1850 to 2000 AD in CLIMBER-2(Abingdon : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2008) Bauer, E.; Petoukhov, V.; Ganopolski, A.; Eliseev, A.V.The Earth system model CLIMBER-2 is extended by a scheme for calculating the climatic response to anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions. The scheme calculates the direct radiative forcing, the first indirect cloud albedo effect, and the second indirect cloud lifetime effect induced by geographically resolved sulphate aerosol burden. The simulated anthropogenic sulphate aerosol burden in the year 2000 amounts to 0.47 TgS. The best guesses for the radiative forcing due to the direct effect are -0.4 W m-2 and for the decrease in short-wave radiation due to all aerosol effects -0.8 W m-2. The simulated global warming by 1 K from 1850 to 2000 caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases reduces to 0.6 K when the sulphate aerosol effects are included. The model's hydrological sensitivity of 4%/K is decreased by the second indirect effect to 0.8%/K. The quality of the geographically distributed climatic response to the historic emissions of sulphur dioxide and greenhouse gases makes the extended model relevant to computational efficient investigations of future climate change scenarios.
- ItemVery low ozone episodes due to polar vortex displacement(Milton Park : Taylor & Francis, 2000) James, P.M.; Peters, D.; Waugh, D.W.The large-scale ozone distribution over the northern hemisphere undergoes strong fluctuationseach winter on timescales of up to a few weeks. This is closely linked to changes in the stratosphericpolar vortex, whose shape, intensity and location vary with time. Elliptical diagnosticparameters provide an empirical description of the daily character of the polar vortex. Theseparameters are used as an objective measure to define two characteristic wintertime vortexdisplacements, towards northern Europe and Canada, respectively. The large-scale structuresin both the stratosphere and troposphere and the 3D ozone structures are determined for bothvortex displacement scenarios. A linear ozone transport model shows that the contribution ofhorizontal ozone advection dominates locally in the middle stratosphere. Nevertheless, thelargest contribution is due to vertical advection around the ozone layer maximum. The findingsare in agreement with an EOF analysis which reveals significant general modes of ozone variabilitylinked to polar vortex displacement and to phase-shifted large-scale tropospheric waves.When baroclinic waves travel through the regions of vortex-related ozone reduction, the combinedeffect is to produce transient synoptic-scale areas of exceptionally low ozone; namelydynamically induced strong ozone mini-holes.
- ItemA hindcast simulation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability, 1955-2001(Tromsø : Norwegian Polar Institute, 2003) Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.; Morales Maqueda, M.A.A hindcast simulation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability during 1955-2001 has been performed with a global, coarse resolution ice-ocean model driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis daily surface air temperatures and winds. Both the mean state and variability of the ice packs over the satellite observing period are reasonably well reproduced by the model. Over the 47-year period, the simulated ice area (defined as the total ice-covered oceanic area) in each hemisphere experiences large decadal variability together with a decreasing trend of ∼1% per decade. In the Southern Hemisphere, this trend is mostly caused by an abrupt retreat of the ice cover during the second half of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. The modelled ice volume also exhibits pronounced decadal variability, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Besides these fluctuations, we detected a downward trend in Arctic ice volume of 1.8% per decade and an upward trend in Antarctic ice volume of 1.5% per decade. However, caution must be exercised when interpreting these trends because of the shortness of the simulation and the strong decadal variations. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments have revealed that the trend in Antarctic ice volume is model-dependent.
- ItemLong-term evolution of the global carbon cycle: Historic minimum of global surface temperature at present(Abingdon : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2002) Franck, S.; Kossacki, K.J.; Von Bloh, W.; Bounama, C.We present a minimal model for the global carbon cycle of the Earth containing the reservoirs mantle, ocean floor, continental crust, continental biosphere, and the kerogen, as well as the aggregated reservoir ocean and atmosphere. This model is coupled to a parameterised mantle convection model for describing the thermal and degassing history of the Earth. In this study the evolution of the mean global surface temperature, the biomass, and reservoir sizes over the whole history and future of the Earth under a maturing Sun is investigated. We obtain reasonable values for the present distribution of carbon in the surface reservoirs of the Earth and find that the parameterisation of the hydrothermal flux and the evolution of the ocean pH in the past has a strong influence on the atmospheric carbon reservoir and surface temperature. The different parameterisations give a rather hot as well as a freezing climate on the early Earth (Hadean and early Archaean). Nevertheless, we find a pronounced global minimum of mean surface temperature at the present state at 4.6 Gyr. In the long-term future the external forcing by increasing insolation dominates and the biosphere extincts in about 1.2 Ga. Our study has the implication that the Earth system is just before the point of evolution where this external forcing takes over the main influence from geodynamic effects acting in the past.
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