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- ItemTrajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene(Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Lenton, Timothy M.; Folke, Carl; Liverman, Diana; Summerhayes, Colin P.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Cornell, Sarah E.; Crucifix, Michel; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Lade, Steven J.; Scheffer, Marten; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Schellnhuber, Hans JoachimWe explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
- ItemExploring functional pairing between surface glycoconjugates and human galectins using programmable glycodendrimersomes(Washington, DC : National Acad. of Sciences, 2018) Xiao, Qi; Ludwig, Anna-Kristin; Romanò, Cecilia; Buzzacchera, Irene; Sherman, Samuel E.; Vetro, Maria; Vértesy, Sabine; Kaltner, Herbert; Reed, Ellen H.; Möller, Martin; Wilson, Christopher J.; Hammer, Daniel A.; Oscarson, Stefan; Klein, Michael L.; Gabius, Hans-Joachim; Percec, VirgilPrecise translation of glycan-encoded information into cellular activity depends critically on highly specific functional pairing between glycans and their human lectin counter receptors. Sulfoglycolipids, such as sulfatides, are important glycolipid components of the biological membranes found in the nervous and immune systems. The optimal molecular and spatial design aspects of sulfated and nonsulfated glycans with high specificity for lectin-mediated bridging are unknown. To elucidate how different molecular and spatial aspects combine to ensure the high specificity of lectin-mediated bridging, a bottom-up toolbox is devised. To this end, negatively surface-charged glycodendrimersomes (GDSs), of different nanoscale dimensions, containing sulfo-lactose groups are self-assembled in buffer from a synthetic sulfatide mimic: Janus glycodendrimer (JGD) containing a 3′-O-sulfo-lactose headgroup. Also prepared for comparative analysis are GDSs with nonsulfated lactose, a common epitope of human membranes. These self-assembled GDSs are employed in aggregation assays with 15 galectins, comprising disease-related human galectins, and other natural and engineered variants from four families, having homodimeric, heterodimeric, and chimera architectures. There are pronounced differences in aggregation capacity between human homodimeric and heterodimeric galectins, and also with respect to their responsiveness to the charge of carbohydrate-derived ligand. Assays reveal strong differential impact of ligand surface charge and density, as well as lectin concentration and structure, on the extent of surface cross-linking. These findings demonstrate how synthetic JGD-headgroup tailoring teamed with protein engineering and network assays can help explain how molecular matchmaking operates in the cellular context of glycan and lectin complexity.
- ItemStrong impact of wildfires on the abundance and aging of black carbon in the lowermost stratosphere(Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Ditas, Jeannine; Ma, Nan; Zhang, Yuxuan; Assmann, Denise; Neumaier, Marco; Riede, Hella; Karu, Einar; Williams, Jonathan; Scharffe, Dieter; Wang, Qiaoqiao; Saturno, Jorge; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Katich, Joseph M.; McMeeking, Gavin R.; Zahn, Andreas; Hermann, Markus; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich; Su, Hang; Cheng, YafangWildfires inject large amounts of black carbon (BC) particles into the atmosphere, which can reach the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) and cause strong radiative forcing. During a 14-month period of observations on board a passenger aircraft flying between Europe and North America, we found frequent and widespread biomass burning (BB) plumes, influencing 16 of 160 flight hours in the LMS. The average BC mass concentrations in these plumes (∼140 ng·m−3, standard temperature and pressure) were over 20 times higher than the background concentration (∼6 ng·m−3) with more than 100-fold enhanced peak values (up to ∼720 ng·m−3). In the LMS, nearly all BC particles were covered with a thick coating. The average mass equivalent diameter of the BC particle cores was ∼120 nm with a mean coating thickness of ∼150 nm in the BB plume and ∼90 nm with a coating of ∼125 nm in the background. In a BB plume that was encountered twice, we also found a high diameter growth rate of ∼1 nm·h−1 due to the BC particle coatings. The observed high concentrations and thick coatings of BC particles demonstrate that wildfires can induce strong local heating in the LMS and may have a significant influence on the regional radiative forcing of climate.
- ItemDrought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming(Washington, DC : NAS, 2018) Su, Buda; Huang, Jinlong; Fischer, Thomas; Wang, Yanjun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Zhai, Jianqing; Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zeng, Xiaofan; Wang, Guojie; Tao, Hui; Gemmer, Marco; Li, Xiucang; Jiang, TongWe project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986–2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006–2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming.