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- ItemCHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland(Basel : MDPI, 2017) Piniewski, Mikołaj; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Kardel, IgnacyThere is considerable concern that the water resources of Central and Eastern Europe region can be adversely affected by climate change. Projections of future water balance and streamflow conditions can be obtained by forcing hydrological models with the output from climate models. In this study, we employed the SWAT hydrological model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for the Vistula and Odra basins in two future horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The data set consists of three parts: (1) model inputs; (2) raw model outputs; (3) aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The third one consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. The data set should be of interest of climate impact scientists, water managers and water-sector policy makers. In any case, it should be noted that projections included in this data set are associated with high uncertainties explained in this data descriptor paper.
- ItemLooking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 2018) Krey, Volker; Guo, Fei; Kolp, Peter; Zhou, Wenji; Schaeffer, Roberto; Awasthy, Aayushi; Bertram, Christoph; de Boer, Harmen-Sytze; Fragkos, Panagiotis; Fujimori, Shinichiro; He, Chenmin; Iyer, Gokul; Keramidas, Kimon; Köberle, Alexandre C.; Oshiro, Ken; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Shoai-Tehrani, Bianka; Vishwanathan, Saritha; Capros, Pantelis; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, James E.; Garg, Amit; Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Jiang, Kejun; Kannavou, Maria; Kitous, Alban; Kriegler, Elmar; Luderer, Gunnar; Mathur, Ritu; Muratori, Matteo; Sano, Fuminori; van Vuuren, Detlef P.Integrated assessment models are extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as contribute to international scientific assessments. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of techno-economic assumptions in the electricity sector among fifteen different global and national integrated assessment models. Particular focus is given to six major economies in the world: Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and the US. The comparison reveals that techno-economic characteristics are quite different across integrated assessment models, both for the base year and future years. It is, however, important to recognize that techno-economic assessments from the literature exhibit an equally large range of parameters as the integrated assessment models reviewed. Beyond numerical differences, the representation of technologies also differs among models, which needs to be taken into account when comparing numerical parameters. While desirable, it seems difficult to fully harmonize techno-economic parameters across a broader range of models due to structural differences in the representation of technology. Therefore, making techno-economic parameters available in the future, together with of the technology representation as well as the exact definitions of the parameters should become the standard approach as it allows an open discussion of appropriate assumptions. © 2019 The Authors
- ItemYield trends, variability and stagnation analysis of major crops in France over more than a century([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2018) Schauberger, Bernhard; Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David; Kato, Tomomichi; Kato, Hiromi; Ciais, PhilippeFrance is a major crop producer, with a production share of approx. 20% within the European Union. Yet, a discussion has recently started whether French yields are stagnating. While for wheat previous results are unanimously pointing to recent stagnation, there is contradictory evidence for maize and few to no results for other crops. Here we analyse a data set with more than 120,000 yield observations from 1900 to 2016 for ten crops (barley, durum and soft wheat, maize, oats, potatoes, rapeseed, sugar beet, sunflower and wine) in the 96 mainland French départements (NUTS3 administrative division). We dissect the evolution of yield trends over time and space, analyse yield variation and evaluate whether growth of yields has stalled in recent years. Yields have, on average across crops, multiplied four-fold over the course of the 20th century. While absolute yield variability has increased, the variation relative to the mean has halved – mean yields have increased faster than their variability. But growth of yields has stagnated since the 1990’s for winter wheat, barley, oats, durum wheat, sunflower and wine on at least 25% of their areas. Reaching yield potentials is unlikely as a cause for stagnation. Maize, in contrast, shows no evidence for stagnation.
- ItemThe implications of initiating immediate climate change mitigation - A potential for co-benefits?(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 2014) Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Longden, Thomas; Knopf, Brigitte; Capros, PantelisFragmented climate policies across parties of the United Nations Framework on Climate Change have led to the question of whether initiating significant and immediate climate change mitigation can support the achievement of other non-climate objectives. We analyze such potential co-benefits in connection with a range of mitigation efforts using results from eleven integrated assessment models. These model results suggest that an immediate mitigation of climate change coincide for Europe with an increase in energy security and a higher utilization of non-biomass renewable energy technologies. In addition, the importance of phasing out coal is highlighted with external cost estimates showing substantial health benefits consistent with the range of mitigation efforts.
- ItemCO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 2013) Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kitous, Alban; McCollum, David; Méjean, Aurélie; Rao, Shilpa; Turton, Hal; Paroussos, Leonidas; Ashina, Shuichi; Calvin, Katherine; Wada, Kenichi; van Vuuren, DetlefThis paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger—twice and more—than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.
- ItemCarbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 2013) Bertram, Christoph; Johnson, Nils; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Isaac, Morna; Eom, JiyongStringent long-term climate targets necessitate a limit on cumulative emissions in this century for which sufficient policy signals are lacking. Using nine energy-economy models, we explore how policies pursued during the next two decades impact long-term transformation pathways towards stringent long-term climate targets. Less stringent near-term policies (i.e., those with larger emissions) consume more of the long-term cumulative emissions budget in the 2010–2030 period, which increases the likelihood of overshooting the budget and the urgency of reducing GHG emissions after 2030. Furthermore, the larger near-term GHG emissions associated with less stringent policies are generated primarily by additional coal-based electricity generation. Therefore, to be successful in meeting the long-term target despite near-term emissions reductions that are weaker than those implied by cost-optimal mitigation pathways, models must prematurely retire significant coal capacity while rapidly ramping up low-carbon technologies between 2030 and 2050 and remove large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere in the latter half of the century. While increased energy efficiency lowers mitigation costs considerably, even with weak near-term policies, it does not substantially reduce the short-term reliance on coal electricity. However, increased energy efficiency does allow the energy system more flexibility in mitigating emissions and, thus, facilitates the post-2030 transition.
- ItemExplosive death induced by mean–field diffusion in identical oscillators([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2017) Verma, Umesh Kumar; Sharma, Amit; Kamal, Neeraj Kumar; Kurths, Jürgen; Shrimali, Manish DevWe report the occurrence of an explosive death transition for the first time in an ensemble of identical limit cycle and chaotic oscillators coupled via mean–field diffusion. In both systems, the variation of the normalized amplitude with the coupling strength exhibits an abrupt and irreversible transition to death state from an oscillatory state and this first order phase transition to death state is independent of the size of the system. This transition is quite general and has been found in all the coupled systems where in–phase oscillations co–exist with a coupling dependent homogeneous steady state. The backward transition point for this phase transition has been calculated using linear stability analysis which is in complete agreement with the numerics.
- ItemErratum: Sample-based approach can outperform the classical dynamical analysis - experimental confirmation of the basin stability method([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2017) Brzeski, P.; Wojewoda, J.; Kapitaniak, T.; Kurths, J.; Perlikowski, P.The original version of this Article contained a typographical error in the spelling of the author T. Kapitaniak, which was incorrectly given as T. Kapitaniakenglish. This has now been corrected in the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.
- ItemCommon solar wind drivers behind magnetic storm–magnetospheric substorm dependency([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2018) Runge, Jakob; Balasis, Georgios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Donner, Reik V.The dynamical relationship between magnetic storms and magnetospheric substorms is one of the most controversial issues of contemporary space research. Here, we address this issue through a causal inference approach to two corresponding indices in conjunction with several relevant solar wind variables. We find that the vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field is the strongest and common driver of both storms and substorms. Further, our results suggest, at least based on the analyzed indices, that there is no statistical evidence for a direct or indirect dependency between substorms and storms and their statistical association can be explained by the common solar drivers. Given the powerful statistical tests we performed (by simultaneously taking into account time series of indices and solar wind variables), a physical mechanism through which substorms directly or indirectly drive storms or vice versa is, therefore, unlikely.
- ItemAlberta wildfire 2016: Apt contribution from anomalous planetary wave dynamics([London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2018) Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Thonicke, Kirsten; Coumou, Dim; Schellnhuber, Hans JoachimIn May-June 2016 the Canadian Province of Alberta suffered one of the most devastating wildfires in its history. Here we show that in mid-April to early May 2016 the large-scale circulation in the mid- and high troposphere of the middle and sub-polar latitudes of the northern hemisphere featured a persistent high-amplitude planetary wave structure dominated by the non-dimensional zonal wave number 4. The strongest anticyclonic wing of this structure was located over western Canada. In combination with a very strong El Niño event in winter 2015/2016 this favored highly anomalous, tinder-dry and high-temperature conditions at the surface in that area, entailing an increased fire hazard there. This critically contributed to the ignition of the Alberta Wildfire in May 2016, appearing to be the costliest disaster in Canadian history thus far.