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- ItemMercury distribution in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere according to measurements by the IAGOS-CARIBIC observatory: 2014-2016(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Slemr, Franz; Weigelt, Andreas; Ebinghaus, Ralf; Bieser, Johannes; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Rauthe-Schöch, Armin; Hermann, Markus; Martinsson, Bengt G.; van Velthoven, Peter; Bönisch, Harald; Neumaier, Marco; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, HelmutMercury was measured onboard the IAGOS-CARIBIC passenger aircraft from May 2005 until February 2016 during near monthly sequences of mostly four intercontinental flights from Germany to destinations in North and South America, Africa and South and East Asia. Most of these mercury data were obtained using an internal default signal integration procedure of the Tekran instrument but since April 2014 more precise and accurate data were obtained using post-flight manual integration of the instrument raw signal. In this paper we use the latter data. Increased upper tropospheric total mercury (TM) concentrations due to large scale biomass burning were observed in the upper troposphere (UT) at the equator and southern latitudes during the flights to Latin America and South Africa in boreal autumn (SON) and boreal winter (DJF). TM concentrations in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) decrease with altitude above the thermal tropopause but the gradient is less steep than reported before. Seasonal variation of the vertical TM distribution in the UT and LMS is similar to that of other trace gases with surface sources and stratospheric sinks. Speciation experiments suggest comparable TM and gaseous elementary mercury (GEM) concentrations at and below the tropopause leaving little space for Hg2+ (TM-thinsp;GEM) being the dominating component of TM here. In the stratosphere significant GEM concentrations were found to exist up to 4 km altitude above the thermal tropopause. Correlations with N2O as a reference tracer suggest stratospheric lifetimes of 72±37 and 74±27 years for TM and GEM, respectively, comparable to the stratospheric lifetime of COS. This coincidence, combined with pieces of evidence from us and other researchers, corroborates the hypothesis that Hg2+ formed by oxidation in the stratosphere attaches to sulfate particles formed mainly by oxidation of COS and is removed with them from the stratosphere by air mass exchange, gravitational sedimentation and cloud scavenging processes.
- ItemTwo-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2018) Heino, M.; Puma, M.J.; Ward, P.J.; Gerten, D.; Heck, V.; Siebert, S.; Kummu, M.The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationships between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.
- ItemComparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2014) Aich, V.; Liersch, S.; Vetter, T.; Huang, S.; Tecklenburg, J.; Hoffmann, P.; Koch, H.; Fournet, S.; Krysanova, V.; Müller, E.N.; Hattermann, F.F.This study aims to compare impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large representative African river basins: the Niger, the Upper Blue Nile, the Oubangui and the Limpopo. We set up the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for all four basins individually. The validation of the models for four basins shows results from adequate to very good, depending on the quality and availability of input and calibration data.
For the climate impact assessment, we drive the model with outputs of five bias corrected Earth system models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. This climate input is put into the context of climate trends of the whole African continent and compared to a CMIP5 ensemble of 19 models in order to test their representativeness. Subsequently, we compare the trends in mean discharges, seasonality and hydrological extremes in the 21st century. The uncertainty of results for all basins is high. Still, climate change impact is clearly visible for mean discharges but also for extremes in high and low flows. The uncertainty of the projections is the lowest in the Upper Blue Nile, where an increase in streamflow is most likely. In the Niger and the Limpopo basins, the magnitude of trends in both directions is high and has a wide range of uncertainty. In the Oubangui, impacts are the least significant. Our results confirm partly the findings of previous continental impact analyses for Africa. However, contradictory to these studies we find a tendency for increased streamflows in three of the four basins (not for the Oubangui). Guided by these results, we argue for attention to the possible risks of increasing high flows in the face of the dominant water scarcity in Africa. In conclusion, the study shows that impact intercomparisons have added value to the adaptation discussion and may be used for setting up adaptation plans in the context of a holistic approach. - ItemFlood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives(Milton Park : Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2014) Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Kanae, S.; Seneviratne, S.I.; Handmer, J.; Nicholls, N.; Peduzzi, P.; Mechler, R.; Bouwer, L.M.; Arnell, N.; Mach, K.; Muir-Wood, R.; Brakenridge, G.R.; Kron, W.; Benito, G.; Honda, Y.; Takahashi, K.; Sherstyukov, B.A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report-Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes and that presently we have only low confidence1 in numerical projections of changes in flood magnitude or frequency resulting from climate change.
- ItemInvestigating African trace gas sources, vertical transport, and oxidation using IAGOS-CARIBIC measurements between Germany and South Africa between 2009 and 2011(Oxford [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2017) Thorenz, U.R.; Baker, A.K.; Leedham Elvidge, E.C.; Sauvage, C.; Riede, H.; van Velthoven, P.F.J.; Hermann, M.; Weigelt, A.; Oram, D.E.; Brenninkmeijer, C.A.M.; Zahn, A.; Williams, J.Between March 2009 and March 2011 a commercial airliner equipped with a custom built measurement container (IAGOS-CARIBIC observatory) conducted 13 flights between South Africa and Germany at 10–12 km altitude, traversing the African continent north-south. In-situ measurements of trace gases (CO, CH4, H2O) and aerosol particles indicated that strong surface sources (like biomass burning) and rapid vertical transport combine to generate maximum concentrations in the latitudinal range between 10°N and 10°S coincident with the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Pressurized air samples collected during these flights were subsequently analyzed for a suite of trace gases including C2-C8 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) and halocarbons. These shorter-lived trace gases, originating from both natural and anthropogenic sources, also showed near equatorial maxima highlighting the effectiveness of convective transport in this region. Two source apportionment methods were used to investigate the specific sources of NMHC: positive matrix factorization (PMF), which is used for the first time for NMHC analysis in the upper troposphere (UT), and enhancement ratios to CO. Using the PMF method three characteristic airmass types were identified based on the different trace gas concentrations they obtained: biomass burning, fossil fuel emissions, and “background” air. The first two sources were defined with reference to previously reported surface source characterizations, while the term “background” was given to air masses in which the concentration ratios approached that of the lifetime ratios. Comparison of enhancement ratios between NMHC and CO for the subset of air samples that had experienced recent contact with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to literature values showed that the burning of savanna and tropical forest is likely the main source of NMHC in the African upper troposphere (10–12 km). Photochemical aging patterns for the samples with PBL contact revealed that the air had different degradation histories depending on the hemisphere in which they were emitted. In the southern hemisphere (SH) air masses experienced more dilution by clean background air whereas in the northern hemisphere (NH) air masses are less diluted or mixed with background air still containing longer lived NMHC. Using NMHC photochemical clocks ozone production was seen in the BB outflow above Africa in the NH.
- ItemDynamics of rural livelihoods and rainfall variability in Northern Ethiopian Highlands(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Adamseged, Muluken E.; Frija, Aymen; Thiel, Andreas[No abstract available]
- ItemSystematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management: Evidence from four case studies in Africa(Wolfville : The Resilience Alliance, 2018) Reinhardt, Julia; Liersch, Stefan; Abdeladhim, Mohamed Arbi; Diallo, Mori; Dickens, Chris; Fournet, Samuel; Hattermann, Fred Fokko; Kabaseke, Clovis; Muhumuza, Moses; Mul, Marloes L.; Pilz, Tobias; Otto, lona M.; Walz, ArianeScenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
- ItemFuture Hydroclimatic Impacts on Africa: Beyond the Paris Agreement(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley-Blackwell, 2019) Piemontese, Luigi; Fetzer, Ingo; Rockström, Johan; Jaramillo, FernandoProjections of global warming in Africa are generally associated with increasing aridity and decreasing water availability. However, most freshwater assessments focus on single hydroclimatic indicators (e.g., runoff, precipitation, or aridity), lacking analysis on combined changes in evaporative demand, and water availability on land. There remains a high degree of uncertainty over water implications at the basin scale, in particular for the most water-consuming sector—food production. Using the Budyko framework, we perform an assessment of future hydroclimatic change for the 50 largest African basins, finding a consistent pattern of change in four distinct regions across the two main emission scenarios corresponding to the Paris Agreement, and the business as usual. Although the Paris Agreement is likely to lead to less intense changes when compared to the business as usual, both scenarios show the same pattern of hydroclimatic shifts, suggesting a potential roadmap for hydroclimatic adaptation. We discuss the social-ecological implications of the projected hydroclimatic shifts in the four regions and argue that climate policies need to be complemented by soil and water conservation practices to make the best use of future water resources. ©2019. The Authors.