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- ItemTrend detection in river flow indices in Poland(Heidelberg : Springer, 2018) Piniewski, Mikołaj; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly ‘no trend’ results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981–2016 rather than for 1956–2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.
- ItemChanges of snow cover in Poland(Heidelberg : Springer, 2017) Szwed, Małgorzata; Pin´skwar, Iwona; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Graczyk, Dariusz; Mezghani, AbdelkaderThe present paper examines variability of characteristics of snow cover (snow cover depth, number of days with snow cover and dates of beginning and end of snow cover) in Poland. The study makes use of a set of 43 long time series of observation records from the stations in Poland, from 1952 to 2013. To describe temporal changes in snow cover characteristics, the intervals of 1952–1990 and of 1991–2013 are compared and trends in analysed data are sought (e.g., using the Mann–Kendall test). Observed behaviour of time series of snow-related variables is complex and not easy to interpret, for instance because of the location of the research area in the zone of transitional moderate climate, where strong variability of climate events is one of the main attributes. A statistical link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the snow cover depth, as well as the number of snow cover days is found.
- ItemWhat can we learn from the projections of changes of flow patterns? Results from Polish case studies(Heidelberg : Springer, 2017) Piniewski, Mikołaj; Meresa, Hadush Kidane; Romanowicz, Renata; Osuch, Marzena; Szczes´niak, Mateusz; Kardel, Ignacy; Okruszko, Tomasz; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.River flow projections for two future time horizons and RCP 8.5 scenario, generated by two projects (CHASE-PL and CHIHE) in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme, were compared. The projects employed different hydrological models over different spatial domains. The semi-distributed, process-based, SWAT model was used in the CHASE-PL project for the entire Vistula and Odra basins area, whilst the lumped, conceptual, HBV model was used in the CHIHE project for eight Polish catchments, for which the comparison study was made. Climate projections in both studies originated from the common EURO-CORDEX dataset, but they were different, e.g. due to different bias correction approaches. Increases in mean annual and seasonal flows were projected in both studies, yet the magnitudes of changes were largely different, in particular for the lowland catchments in the far future. The HBV-based increases were significantly higher in the latter case than the SWAT-based increases in all seasons except winter. Uncertainty in projections is high and creates a problem for practitioners.
- ItemThe Hiccup: a dynamical coupling process during the autumn transition in the Northern Hemisphere – similarities and differences to sudden stratospheric warmings(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2015) Matthias, V.; Shepherd, T.G.; Hoffmann, P.; Rapp, M.Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most prominent vertical coupling process in the middle atmosphere, which occur during winter and are caused by the interaction of planetary waves (PWs) with the zonal mean flow. Vertical coupling has also been identified during the equinox transitions, and is similarly associated with PWs. We argue that there is a characteristic aspect of the autumn transition in northern high latitudes, which we call the "hiccup", and which acts like a "mini SSW", i.e. like a small minor warming. We study the average characteristics of the hiccup based on a superimposed epoch analysis using a nudged version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, representing 30 years of historical data. Hiccups can be identified in about half the years studied. The mesospheric zonal wind results are compared to radar observations over Andenes (69° N, 16° E) for the years 2000–2013. A comparison of the average characteristics of hiccups and SSWs shows both similarities and differences between the two vertical coupling processes.
- ItemSimultaneous observations of a Mesospheric Inversion Layer and turbulence during the ECOMA-2010 rocket campaign(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2013) Szewczyk, A.; Strelnikov, B.; Rapp, M.; Strelnikova, I.; Baumgarten, G.; Kaifler, N.; Dunker, T.; Hoppe, U.-P.From 19 November to 19 December 2010 the fourth and final ECOMA rocket campaign was conducted at Andøya Rocket Range (69 N, 16 E) in northern Norway. We present and discuss measurement results obtained during the last rocket launch labelled ECOMA09 when simultaneous and true common volume in situ measurements of temperature and turbulence supported by ground-based lidar observations reveal two Mesospheric Inversion Layers (MIL) at heights between 71 and 73 km and between 86 and 89 km. Strong turbulence was measured in the region of the upper inversion layer, with the turbulent energy dissipation rates maximising at 2 W kg-1. This upper MIL was observed by the ALOMAR Weber Na lidar over the period of several hours. The spatial extension of this MIL as observed by the MLS instrument onboard AURA satellite was found to be more than two thousand kilometres. Our analysis suggests that both observed MILs could possibly have been produced by neutral air turbulence.
- ItemClimatologies and long-term changes in mesospheric wind and wave measurements based on radar observations at high and mid latitudes(Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2019) Wilhelm, S.; Stober, G.; Brown, P.We report on long-term observations of atmospheric parameters in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) made over the last 2 decades. Within this study, we show, based on meteor wind measurement, the long-term variability of winds, tides, and kinetic energy of planetary and gravity waves. These measurements were done between the years 2002 and 2018 for the high-latitude location of Andenes (69.3°N, 16°E) and the mid-latitude locations of Juliusruh (54.6°N, 13.4°E) and Tavistock (43.3°N, 80.8°W). While the climatologies for each location show a similar pattern, the locations differ strongly with respect to the altitude and season of several parameters. Our results show annual wind tendencies for Andenes which are toward the south and to the west, with changes of up to 3°m s-1 per decade, while the mid-latitude locations show smaller opposite tendencies to negligible changes. The diurnal tides show nearly no significant long-term changes, while changes for the semidiurnal tides differ regarding altitude. Andenes shows only during winter a tidal weakening above 90°km, while for the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) an enhancement of the semidiurnal tides during the winter and a weakening during fall occur. Furthermore, the kinetic energy for planetary waves showed strong peak values during winters which also featured the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming. The influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the winds and tides is presented. The amplitudes of the mean winds exhibit a significant amplitude response for the zonal component below 82°km during summer and from November to December between 84 and 95°km at Andenes and CMOR. The semidiurnal tides (SDTs) show a clear 11-year response at all locations, from October to November. © 2019 by ASME.
- ItemFirst experimental verification of summertime mesospheric momentum balance based on radar wind measurements at 69° N(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2015) Placke, M.; Hoffmann, P.; Rapp, M.Gravity waves (GWs) greatly influence the background state of the middle atmosphere by imposing their momentum on the mean flow upon breaking and by thus driving, e.g., the upper mesospheric summer zonal wind reversal. In this situation momentum is conserved by a balance between the vertical divergence of GW momentum flux (the so-called GW drag) and the Coriolis acceleration of the mean meridional wind. In this study, we present first quantitative mean annual cycles of these two balancing quantities from the medium frequency Doppler radar at the polar site Saura (SMF radar, 69° N, 16° E). Three-year means for 2009 through 2011 clearly show that the observed zonal momentum balance between 70 and 100 km with contributions from GWs only is fulfilled during summer when GW activity is strongest and more stable than in winter. During winter, the balance between GW drag and Coriolis acceleration of the mean meridional wind is not existent, which is likely due to the additional contribution from planetary waves, which are not considered by the present investigation. The differences in the momentum balance between summer and winter conditions are additionally clarified by 3-month mean vertical profiles for summer 2010 and winter 2010/2011.
- ItemLong-term trends in the ionospheric F2 region with different solar activity indices(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2013) Mielich, J.; Bremer, J.A new comprehensive data collection by Damboldt and Suessmann (2012a) with monthly foF2 and M(3000)F2 median values is an excellent basis for the derivation of long-term trends in the ionospheric F2 region. Ionospheric trends have been derived only for stations with data series of at least 22 years (124 stations with foF2 data and 113 stations with M(3000)F2 data) using a twofold regression analysis depending on solar and geomagnetic activity. Three main results have been derived: Firstly, it could be shown that the solar 10.7 cm radio flux F10.7 is a better index for the description of the solar activity than the relative solar sunspot number R as well as the solar EUV proxy E10.7. Secondly, the global mean foF2 and
- ItemHigh-resolution vertical velocities and their power spectrum observed with the MAARSY radar – Part 1: frequency spectrum(Katlenburg, Lindau : Copernicus, 2018-4-3) Li, Qiang; Rapp, Markus; Stober, Gunter; Latteck, RalphThe Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System (MAARSY) installed at the island of Andøya has been run for continuous probing of atmospheric winds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. In the current study, we present high-resolution wind measurements during the period between 2010 and 2013 with MAARSY. The spectral analysis applying the Lomb–Scargle periodogram method has been carried out to determine the frequency spectra of vertical wind velocity. From a total of 522 days of observations, the statistics of the spectral slope have been derived and show a dependence on the background wind conditions. It is a general feature that the observed spectra of vertical velocity during active periods (with wind velocity > 10 m s−1) are much steeper than during quiet periods (with wind velocity < 10 m s−1). The distribution of spectral slopes is roughly symmetric with a maximum at −5/3 during active periods, whereas a very asymmetric distribution with a maximum at around −1 is observed during quiet periods. The slope profiles along altitudes reveal a significant height dependence for both conditions, i.e., the spectra become shallower with increasing altitudes in the upper troposphere and maintain roughly a constant slope in the lower stratosphere. With both wind conditions considered together the general spectra are obtained and their slopes are compared with the background horizontal winds. The comparisons show that the observed spectra become steeper with increasing wind velocities under quiet conditions, approach a spectral slope of −5/3 at a wind velocity of 10 m s−1 and then roughly maintain this slope (−5/3) for even stronger winds. Our findings show an overall agreement with previous studies; furthermore, they provide a more complete climatology of frequency spectra of vertical wind velocities under different wind conditions.
- ItemEffects of Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe(Dordrecht : Springer, 2014) Stagl, J.; Mayr, E.; Koch, H.; Hattermann, F.F.; Huang, S.For the management of protected areas knowledge about the water regime plays a very important role, in particular in areas with lakes, wetlands, marches or floodplains. The local hydrological conditions depend widely on temporal and spatial variations of the main components of the hydrologic cycle and physiographic conditions on site. To preserve a favourable conservation status under changing climatic conditions park managers require information about potential impacts of climate change in their area. The following chapter provides an overview of how climate change affects the hydrological regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. The hydrological impacts for the protected areas are area-specific and vary from region to region. Generally, an increase in temperature enhances the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus, leads to an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Key changes in the hydrological system include alterations in the seasonal distribution, magnitude and duration of precipitation and evapotranspiration. This may lead to changes in the water storage, surface runoff, soil moisture and seasonal snow packs as well as to modifications in the mass balance of Central European glaciers. Partly, water resources management can help to counterbalance effects of climate change on stream flow and water availability.