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- ItemFootprint-weighted tile approach for a spruce forest and a nearby patchy clearing using the ACASA model(Katlenburg-Lindau [u.a.] : Copernicus, 2018) Gatzsche, Kathrin; Babel, Wolfgang; Falge, Eva; Pyles, Rex David; Paw U., Kyaw Tha; Raabe, Armin; Foken, ThomasThe ACASA (Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm) model, with a higher-order closure for tall vegetation, has already been successfully tested and validated for homogeneous spruce forests. The aim of this paper is to test the model using a footprint-weighted tile approach for a clearing with a heterogeneous structure of the underlying surface. The comparison with flux data shows a good agreement with a footprint-aggregated tile approach of the model. However, the results of a comparison with a tile approach on the basis of the mean land use classification of the clearing is not significantly different. It is assumed that the footprint model is not accurate enough to separate small-scale heterogeneities. All measured fluxes are corrected by forcing the energy balance closure of the test data either by maintaining the measured Bowen ratio or by the attribution of the residual depending on the fractions of sensible and latent heat flux to the buoyancy flux. The comparison with the model, in which the energy balance is closed, shows that the buoyancy correction for Bowen ratios > 1.5 better fits the measured data. For lower Bowen ratios, the correction probably lies between the two methods, but the amount of available data was too small to make a conclusion. With an assumption of similarity between water and carbon dioxide fluxes, no correction of the net ecosystem exchange is necessary for Bowen ratios > 1.5.
- ItemIce roads through lake-rich Arctic watersheds : Integrating climate uncertainty and freshwater habitat responses into adaptive management(London : Taylor & Francis Group, 2019) Arp, Christopher D.; Whitman, Matthew S.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Nigro, D.A.; Alexeev, Vladimir; Gädeke, Anne; Fritz, Stacey; Daanen, Ronald; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Adams, F.J.; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Grosse, Guido; Heim, Kurt C.; Beaver, R.; Cai, Lei; Engram, Melanie; Uher-Koch, Hannah R.Vast mosaics of lakes, wetlands, and rivers on the Arctic Coastal Plain give the impression of water surplus. Yet long winters lock freshwater resources in ice, limiting freshwater habitats and water supply for human uses. Increasingly the petroleum industry relies on lakes to build temporary ice roads for winter oil exploration. Permitting water withdrawal for ice roads in Arctic Alaska is dependent on lake depth, ice thickness, and the fish species present. Recent winter warming suggests that more winter water will be available for ice- road construction, yet high interannual variability in ice thickness and summer precipitation complicates habitat impact assessments. To address these concerns, multidisciplinary researchers are working to understand how Arctic freshwater habitats are responding to changes in both climate and water use in northern Alaska. The dynamics of habitat availability and connectivity are being linked to how food webs support fish and waterbirds across diverse freshwater habitats. Moving toward watershed-scale habitat classification coupled with scenario analysis of climate extremes and water withdrawal is increasingly relevant to future resource management decisions in this region. Such progressive refinement in understanding responses to change provides an example of adaptive management focused on ensuring responsible resource development in the Arctic. © 2019, © 2019 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
- ItemFossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; Humpenöder, Florian; Leimbach, Marian; Strefler, Jessica; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Hilaire, Jérôme; Klein, David; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Weindl, Isabelle; Bertram, Christoph; Dietrich, Jan-Philipp; Luderer, Gunnar; Pehl, Michaja; Pietzcker, Robert; Piontek, Franziska; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bonsch, Markus; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Schultes, Anselm; Schwanitz, Jana; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Edenhofer, OttmarThis paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.
- ItemEnergy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; van den Berg, Maarten; Harmsen, Mathijs; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Bouwman, Lex F.; Daioglou, Vassilis; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Girod, Bastien; Kram, Tom; Lassaletta, Luis; Lucas, Paul L.; van Meijl, Hans; Müller, Christoph; van Ruijven, Bas J.; van der Sluis, Sietske; Tabeau, AndrzejThis paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3 °C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5 °C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals.
- ItemThe Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O’Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Dellink, Rob; Fricko, Oliver; Lutz, Wolfgang; Popp, Alexander; Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus; KC, Samir; Leimbach, Marian; Jiang, Leiwen; Kram, Tom; Rao, Shilpa; Emmerling, Johannes; Ebi, Kristie; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Aleluia Da Silva, Lara; Smith, Steve; Stehfest, Elke; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Gernaat, David; Masui, Toshihiko; Rogelj, Joeri; Strefler, Jessica; Drouet, Laurent; Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Harmsen, Mathijs; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Baumstark, Lavinia; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kainuma, Mikiko; Klimont, Zbigniew; Marangoni, Giacomo; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Obersteiner, Michael; Tabeau, Andrzej; Tavoni, MassimoThis paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).
- ItemFuture air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2016) Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J.; Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank; Bouwman, Lex; Riahi, Keywan; Amann, Markus; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Drouet, Laurent; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Gernaat, David; Havlik, Petr; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Heyes, Chris; Hilaire, Jérôme; Luderer, Gunnar; Masui, Toshihiko; Stehfest, Elke; Strefler, Jessica; van der Sluis, Sietske; Tavoni, MassimoEmissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions.
- ItemFuture growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach(Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2015) Leimbach, Marian; Kriegler, Elmar; Roming, Niklas; Schwanitz, JanaGlobal GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored.
- ItemAge–depth model of the past 630 kyr for Lake Ohrid (FYROM/Albania) based on cyclostratigraphic analysis of downhole gamma ray data(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2015) Baumgarten, H.; Wonik, T.; Tanner, D.C.; Francke, A.; Wagner, B.; Zanchetta, G.; Sulpizio, R.; Giaccio, B.; Nomade, S.Gamma ray (GR) fluctuations and potassium (K) values from downhole logging data obtained in the sediments of Lake Ohrid from 0 to 240 m below lake floor (b.l.f). correlate with fluctuations in δ18O values from the global benthic isotope stack LR04 (Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005). GR and K values are considered a reliable proxy to depict glacial-interglacial cycles, with high clastic input during cold and/or drier periods and high carbonate precipitation during warm and/or humid periods at Lake Ohrid. Spectral analysis was applied to investigate the climate signal and evolution over the length of the borehole. Linking downhole logging data with orbital cycles was used to estimate sedimentation rates and the effect of compaction was compensated for. Sedimentation rates increase on average by 14 % after decompaction of the sediment layers and the mean sedimentation rates shift from 45 cm kyr-1 between 0 and 110 m to 30 cm kyr-1 from 110 to 240 m b.l.f. Tuning of minima and maxima of gamma ray and potassium values versus LR04 extrema, in combination with eight independent tephrostratigraphical tie points, allows establishing of a robust age model for the downhole logging data over the past 630 kyr. © Author(s) 2015.
- ItemNorthern Mediterranean climate since the Middle Pleistocene: a 637 ka stable isotope record from Lake Ohrid (Albania/Macedonia)(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2016) Lacey, Jack H.; Leng, Melanie J.; Francke, Alexander; Sloane, Hilary J.; Milodowski, Antoni; Vogel, Hendrik; Baumgarten, Henrike; Zanchetta, Giovanni; Wagner, BerndLake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania) is an ancient lake with unique biodiversity and a site of global significance for investigating the influence of climate, geological, and tectonic events on the generation of endemic populations. Here, we present oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope data from carbonate over the upper 243 m of a composite core profile recovered as part of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) project. The investigated sediment succession covers the past ca. 637 ka. Previous studies on short cores from the lake (up to 15 m, < 140 ka) have indicated the total inorganic carbon (TIC) content of sediments to be highly sensitive to climate change over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Sediments corresponding to warmer periods contain abundant endogenic calcite; however, an overall low TIC content in glacial sediments is punctuated by discrete bands of early diagenetic authigenic siderite. Isotope measurements on endogenic calcite (δ18Oc and δ13Cc) reveal variations both between and within interglacials that suggest the lake has been subject to palaeoenvironmental change on orbital and millennial timescales. We also measured isotope ratios from authigenic siderite (δ18Os and δ13Cs) and, with the oxygen isotope composition of calcite and siderite, reconstruct δ18O of lake water (δ18Olw) over the last 637 ka. Interglacials have higher δ18Olw values when compared to glacial periods most likely due to changes in evaporation, summer temperature, the proportion of winter precipitation (snowfall), and inflow from adjacent Lake Prespa. The isotope stratigraphy suggests Lake Ohrid experienced a period of general stability from marine isotope stage (MIS) 15 to MIS 13, highlighting MIS 14 as a particularly warm glacial. Climate conditions became progressively wetter during MIS 11 and MIS 9. Interglacial periods after MIS 9 are characterised by increasingly evaporated and drier conditions through MIS 7, MIS 5, and the Holocene. Our results provide new evidence for long-term climate change in the northern Mediterranean region, which will form the basis to better understand the influence of major environmental events on biological evolution within Lake Ohrid. © Author(s) 2016.
- ItemSedimentological processes and environmental variability at Lake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania) between 637 ka and the present(Katlenburg-Lindau : European Geosciences Union, 2016) Francke, Alexander; Wagner, Bernd; Just, Janna; Leicher, Niklas; Gromig, Raphael; Baumgarten, Henrike; Vogel, Hendrik; Lacey, Jack H.; Sadori, Laura; Wonik, Thomas; Leng, Melanie J.; Zanchetta, Giovanni; Sulpizio, Roberto; Giaccio, BiagioLake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania) is thought to be more than 1.2 million years old and host more than 300 endemic species. As a target of the International Continental scientific Drilling Program (ICDP), a successful deep drilling campaign was carried out within the scope of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) project in 2013. Here, we present lithological, sedimentological, and (bio-)geochemical data from the upper 247.8 m composite depth of the overall 569 m long DEEP site sediment succession from the central part of the lake. According to an age model, which is based on 11 tephra layers (first-order tie points) and on tuning of bio-geochemical proxy data to orbital parameters (second-order tie points), the analyzed sediment sequence covers the last 637 kyr. The DEEP site sediment succession consists of hemipelagic sediments, which are interspersed by several tephra layers and infrequent, thin (< 5 cm) mass wasting deposits. The hemipelagic sediments can be classified into three different lithotypes. Lithotype 1 and 2 deposits comprise calcareous and slightly calcareous silty clay and are predominantly attributed to interglacial periods with high primary productivity in the lake during summer and reduced mixing during winter. The data suggest that high ion and nutrient concentrations in the lake water promoted calcite precipitation and diatom growth in the epilimnion during MIS15, 13, and 5. Following a strong primary productivity, highest interglacial temperatures can be reported for marine isotope stages (MIS) 11 and 5, whereas MIS15, 13, 9, and 7 were comparably cooler. Lithotype 3 deposits consist of clastic, silty clayey material and predominantly represent glacial periods with low primary productivity during summer and longer and intensified mixing during winter. The data imply that the most severe glacial conditions at Lake Ohrid persisted during MIS16, 12, 10, and 6, whereas somewhat warmer temperatures can be inferred for MIS14, 8, 4, and 2. Interglacial-like conditions occurred during parts of MIS14 and 8. © Author(s) 2016.