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- ItemRegional effects of atmospheric aerosols on temperature: An evaluation of an ensemble of online coupled models(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Baró, Rocío; Palacios-Peña, Laura; Baklanov, Alexander; Balzarini, Alessandra; Brunner, Dominik; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Pérez, Juan Luis; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Schröder, Wolfram; Werhahn, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Žabkar, Rahela; Jiménez-Guerrero, PedroThe climate effect of atmospheric aerosols is associated with their influence on the radiative budget of the Earth due to the direct aerosol-radiation interactions (ARIs) and indirect effects, resulting from aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions (ACIs). Online coupled meteorology-chemistry models permit the description of these effects on the basis of simulated atmospheric aerosol concentrations, although there is still some uncertainty associated with the use of these models. Thus, the objective of this work is to assess whether the inclusion of atmospheric aerosol radiative feedbacks of an ensemble of online coupled models improves the simulation results for maximum, mean and minimum temperature at 2m over Europe. The evaluated models outputs originate from EuMetChem COST Action ES1004 simulations for Europe, differing in the inclusion (or omission) of ARI and ACI in the various models. The cases studies cover two important atmospheric aerosol episodes over Europe in the year 2010: (i) a heat wave event and a forest fire episode (July-August 2010) and (ii) a more humid episode including a Saharan desert dust outbreak in October 2010. The simulation results are evaluated against observational data from the E-OBS gridded database. The results indicate that, although there is only a slight improvement in the bias of the simulation results when including the radiative feedbacks, the spatiotemporal variability and correlation coefficients are improved for the cases under study when atmospheric aerosol radiative effects are included.
- ItemLong-term wintertime trend of zonally asymmetric ozone in boreal extratropics during 1979-2016(Basel : MDPI AG, 2018) Schneidereit, A.; Peters, D.H.W.Strong zonally asymmetric ozone (ZAO) changes are observed in the boreal extratropics for winter. During the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) period (1979-1992) the decrease of zonally asymmetric total ozone (ZATO) was twice as large as the observed zonal mean total ozone trend over Europe in January mainly caused by ultra-long wave transport. Recent studies have demonstrated that the ozone evolution reveals three different quasi-bidecadal trend stages: (i) Decline, (ii) leveling, and (ii) healing. This study focuses on the ZAO structure in boreal extratropics and on ozone transport changes by ultra-long waves during winter months. ERA-Interim data together with a linearized transport model are used. During the healing stage ZATO increases significantly over the North Atlantic/European region for January. The ZATO increase (healing stage) and ZATO decrease (decline stage) are caused by different monthly mean ozone transport characteristics of ultra-long planetary waves over the North Atlantic/European region. Furthermore, the vertical advection (ageostrophic transport) of ozone versus its horizontal component dominates in the lower and middle stratosphere during the healing stage. It is hypothesized that these ageostrophic wind changes are mainly caused by a wave train directed northeastwards which seems to be directly linked to the Arctic warming. © 2018 by the authors.
- ItemAirborne high spectral resolution lidar observation of pollution aerosol during EUCAARI-LONGREX(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2013) Groß, S.; Esselborn, M.; Abicht, F.; Wirth, M.; Fix, A.; Minikin, A.Airborne high spectral resolution lidar observations over Europe during the EUCAARI-LONGREX field experiment in May 2008 are analysed with respect to the optical properties of continental pollution aerosol. Continental pollution aerosol is characterized by its depolarisation and lidar ratio. Over all, the measurements of the lidar ratio and the particle linear depolarization ratio of pollution aerosols provide a narrow range of values. Therefore, this data set allows for a distinct characterization of the aerosol type "pollution aerosol" and thus is valuable both to distinguish continental pollution aerosol from other aerosol types and to determine mixtures with other types of aerosols.
- ItemThree-dimensional evolution of Saharan dust transport towards Europe based on a 9-year EARLINET-optimized CALIPSO dataset(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2017) Marinou, Eleni; Amiridis, Vassilis; Binietoglou, Ioannis; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Solomos, Stavros; Proestakis, Emannouil; Konsta, Dimitra; Papagiannopoulos, Nikolaos; Tsekeri, Alexandra; Vlastou, Georgia; Zanis, Prodromos; Balis, Dimitrios; Wandinger, Ulla; Ansmann, AlbertIn this study we use a new dust product developed using CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) observations and EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) measurements and methods to provide a 3-D multiyear analysis on the evolution of Saharan dust over North Africa and Europe. The product uses a CALIPSO L2 backscatter product corrected with a depolarization-based method to separate pure dust in external aerosol mixtures and a Saharan dust lidar ratio (LR) based on long-term EARLINET measurements to calculate the dust extinction profiles. The methodology is applied on a 9-year CALIPSO dataset (2007-2015) and the results are analyzed here to reveal for the first time the 3-D dust evolution and the seasonal patterns of dust over its transportation paths from the Sahara towards the Mediterranean and Continental Europe. During spring, the spatial distribution of dust shows a uniform pattern over the Sahara desert. The dust transport over the Mediterranean Sea results in mean dust optical depth (DOD) values up to 0.1. During summer, the dust activity is mostly shifted to the western part of the desert where mean DOD near the source is up to 0.6. Elevated dust plumes with mean extinction values between 10 and 75 Mm-1 are observed throughout the year at various heights between 2 and 6 km, extending up to latitudes of 40° N. Dust advection is identified even at latitudes of about 60° N, but this is due to rare events of episodic nature. Dust plumes of high DOD are also observed above the Balkans during the winter period and above northwest Europe during autumn at heights between 2 and 4 km, reaching mean extinction values up to 50 Mm-1. The dataset is considered unique with respect to its potential applications, including the evaluation of dust transport models and the estimation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) concentration profiles. Finally, the product can be used to study dust dynamics during transportation, since it is capable of revealing even fine dynamical features such as the particle uplifting and deposition on European mountainous ridges such as the Alps and Carpathian Mountains.
- ItemAn assessment of aerosol optical properties from remote-sensing observations and regional chemistry-climate coupled models over Europe(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2018) Palacios-Peña, Laura; Baró, Rocío; Baklanov, Alexander; Balzarini, Alessandra; Brunner, Dominik; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; López-Romero, José María; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Pérez, Juan Luis; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Schröder, Wolfram; Werhahn, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Žabkar, Rahela; Jiménez-Guerrero, PedroAtmospheric aerosols modify the radiative budget of the Earth due to their optical, microphysical and chemical properties, and are considered one of the most uncertain climate forcing agents. In order to characterise the uncertainties associated with satellite and modelling approaches to represent aerosol optical properties, mainly aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE), their representation by different remote-sensing sensors and regional online coupled chemistry-climate models over Europe are evaluated. This work also characterises whether the inclusion of aerosol-radiation (ARI) or/and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) help improve the skills of modelling outputs. Two case studies were selected within the EuMetChem COST Action ES1004 framework when important aerosol episodes in 2010 all over Europe took place: a Russian wildfire episode and a Saharan desert dust outbreak that covered most of the Mediterranean Sea. The model data came from different regional air-quality-climate simulations performed by working group 2 of EuMetChem, which differed according to whether ARI or ACI was included or not. The remote-sensing data came from three different sensors: MODIS, OMI and SeaWIFS. The evaluation used classical statistical metrics to first compare satellite data versus the ground-based instrument network (AERONET) and then to evaluate model versus the observational data (both satellite and ground-based data). Regarding the uncertainty in the satellite representation of AOD, MODIS presented the best agreement with the AERONET observations compared to other satellite AOD observations. The differences found between remote-sensing sensors highlighted the uncertainty in the observations, which have to be taken into account when evaluating models. When modelling results were considered, a common trend for underestimating high AOD levels was observed. For the AE, models tended to underestimate its variability, except when considering a sectional approach in the aerosol representation. The modelling results showed better skills when ARI+ACI interactions were included; hence this improvement in the representation of AOD (above 30 % in the model error) and AE (between 20 and 75 %) is important to provide a better description of aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions in regional climate models.
- ItemClimate of the last millennium: Ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2013) Bothe, O.; Jungclaus, J.H.; Zanchettin, D.; Zorita, E.Are simulations and reconstructions of past climate and its variability consistent with each other? We assess the consistency of simulations and reconstructions for the climate of the last millennium under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. In this type of analysis, the null hypothesis is that reconstructions and simulations are statistically indistinguishable and, therefore, are exchangeable with each other. Ensemble consistency is assessed for Northern Hemisphere mean temperature, Central European mean temperature and for global temperature fields. Reconstructions available for these regions serve as verification data for a set of simulations of the climate of the last millennium performed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Consistency is generally limited to some sub-domains and some sub-periods. Only the ensemble simulated and reconstructed annual Central European mean temperatures for the second half of the last millennium demonstrates unambiguous consistency. Furthermore, we cannot exclude consistency of an ensemble of reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature with the simulation ensemble mean. If we treat simulations and reconstructions as equitable hypotheses about past climate variability, the found general lack of their consistency weakens our confidence in inferences about past climate evolutions on the considered spatial and temporal scales. That is, our available estimates of past climate evolutions are on an equal footing but, as shown here, inconsistent with each other.
- ItemInfluence of tides and gravity waves on layering processes in the polar summer mesopause region(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2008) Hoffmann, P.; Rapp, M.; Fiedler, J.; Latteck, R.Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes (PMSE) have been studied at Andenes (69° N, 16° E), Norway, using VHF radar observations since 1994. One remarkable feature of these observations is the fact that {during 50% of the time,} the radar echoes occur in the form of two or more distinct layers. In the case of multiple PMSE layers, statistical analysis shows that the lower layer occurs at a mean height of ∼83.4 km, which is almost identical to the mean height of noctilucent clouds (NLC) derived from observation with the ALOMAR Rayleigh/Mie/Raman lidar at the same site. To investigate the layering processes microphysical model simulations under the influence of tidal and gravity waves were performed. In the presence of long period gravity waves, these model investigations predict an enhanced formation of multiple PMSE layer structures, where the lower layer is a consequence of the occurrence of the largest particles at the bottom of the ice cloud. This explains the coincidence of the lowermost PMSE layers and NLC. During periods with enhanced amplitudes of the semidiurnal tide, the observed NLC and PMSE show pronounced tidal structures comparable to the results of corresponding microphysical simulations. At periods with short period gravity waves there is a tendency for a decreasing occurrence of NLC and for variable weak PMSE structures.
- ItemLongitude-dependent decadal ozone changes and ozone trends in boreal winter months during 1960-2000(Göttingen : Copernicus, 2008) Peters, D.H.W.; Gabriel, A.; Entzian, G.This study examines the longitude-dependent decadal changes and trends of ozone for the boreal winter months during the period of 1960–2000. These changes are caused primarily by changes in the planetary wave structure in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The decadal changes and trends over 4 decades of geopotential perturbations, defined as a deviation from the zonal mean, are estimated by linear regression with time. The decadal changes in longitude-dependent ozone were calculated with a simple transport model of ozone based on the known planetary wave structure changes and prescribed zonal mean ozone gradients. For December of the 1960s and 1980s a statistically significant Rossby wave track appeared over the North Atlantic and Europe with an anticyclonic disturbance over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, flanked by cyclonic disturbances. In the 1970s and 1990s statistically significant cyclonic disturbances appeared over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe, surrounded by anticyclonic anomalies over Northern Africa, Central Asia and Greenland. Similar patterns have been found for January. The Rossby wave track over the North Atlantic and Europe is stronger in the 1980s than in the 1960s. For February, the variability of the regression patterns is higher. For January we found a strong alteration in the modelled decadal changes in total ozone over Central and Northern Europe, showing a decrease of about 15 DU in the 1960s and 1980s and an increase of about 10 DU in the 1970s and 1990s. Over Central Europe the positive geopotential height trend (increase of 2.3 m/yr) over 40 years is of the same order (about 100 m) as the increase in the 1980s alone. This is important to recognize because it implies a total ozone decrease over Europe of the order of 14 DU for the 1960–2000 period, for January, if we use the standard change regression relation that about a 10-m geopotential height increase at 300 hPa is related to about a 1.4-DU total ozone decrease.
- ItemUsing Meta-Analysis and GIS for Value Transfer and Scaling Up: Valuing Climate Change Induced Losses of European Wetlands(Dordrecht : Springer, 2012) Brander, L.M.; Bräuer, I.; Gerdes, H.; Ghermandi, A.; Kuik, O.; Markandya, A.; Navrud, S.; Nunes, P.A.L.D.; Schaafsma, M.; Vos, H.; Wagtendonk, A.There is growing policy and academic interest in transferring ecosystem service values from existing valuation studies to other ecosystem sites at a large geographic scale. Despite the evident policy demand for this combined transfer and "scaling up" of values, an approach to value transfer that addresses the challenges inherent in assessing ecosystem changes at a national or regional level is not available. This paper proposes a methodology for scaling up ecosystem service values to estimate the welfare effects of ecosystem change at this larger geographical scale. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to value the impact of climate change on European wetlands for the period 2000-2050. The proposed methodology makes use of meta-analysis to produce a value function. The parameters of the value function include spatial variables on wetland size and abundance, GDP per capita, and population. A geographic information system is used to construct a database of wetland sites in the case study region with information on these spatial variables. Site-specific ecosystem service values are subsequently estimated using the meta-analytic value function. The proposed method is shown to enable the adjustment of transferred values to reflect variation in important spatial variables and to account for changes in the stock of ecosystems.
- ItemA framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change(Wolfville : The Resilience Alliance, 2017) Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Bredahl Jacobsen, Jette; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Meilby, Henrik; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; Bugmann, Harald; Borges, Jose G.; Palma, João H.N.; Ray, Duncan; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Delzon, Sylvain; Kremer, Antoine; Kramer, Koen; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Lasch-Born, Petra; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Hanewinkel, MarcAdapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.
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