Search Results
Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland
The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly ‘no trend’ results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981–2016 rather than for 1956–2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.
Local stratopause temperature variabilities and their embedding in the global context
The stratopause is by definition the transition between the stratosphere and mesosphere. During winter the circulation at mid-latitudes and high latitudes in the stratosphere is mainly driven by quasi-stationary planetary waves (PWs), while the circulation in the mesosphere is mainly driven by gravity waves (GWs). The question arises of whether PWs or GWs dominate the variability of the stratopause. The most famous and dramatic variability of the middle atmosphere is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) generated by PWs interacting with the polar vortex. A similar phenomenon but smaller in magnitude and more regional is stratopause temperature enhancements (STEs) initially observed by local measurements and generated by breaking PWs. Thus it seems that PWs dominate the variability of the stratopause. In this study we want to quantify to which extent quasi-stationary PWs contribute to the stratopause variability. To do that we combine local lidar observations at Kühlungsborn (54∘ N, 11∘ E) and Andenes (69∘ N, 16∘ E) with global MERRA-2 reanalysis data bringing the local variability of the stratopause into the global context. Therefore we compare the temperature time series at Kühlungsborn and Andenes at 2 hPa, the altitude where STEs maximize, with characteristics (amplitude and phase) of PWs with wave numbers 1, 2 and 3. We found that for Kühlungsborn and Andenes 98 % of the local day-to-day variability of the stratopause can be explained by the variability of PWs with wave number 1, 2 and 3. Thus, the winter stratopause day-to-day variability is highly dominated by the variability of PWs.
Aerosol Particle and Black Carbon Emission Factors of Vehicular Fleet in Manila, Philippines
Poor air quality has been identified as one of the main risks to human health, especially in developing regions, where the information on physical chemical properties of air pollutants is lacking. To bridge this gap, we conducted an intensive measurement campaign in Manila, Philippines to determine the emission factors (EFs) of particle number (PN) and equivalent black carbon (BC). The focus was on public utility jeepneys (PUJ), equipped with old technology diesel engines, widely used for public transportation. The EFs were determined by aerosol physical measurements, fleet information, and modeled dilution using the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM). The results show that average vehicle EFs of PN and BC in Manila is up to two orders of magnitude higher than European emission standards. Furthermore, a PUJ emits up to seven times more than a light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and contribute to more than 60% of BC emission in Manila. Unfortunately, traffic restrictions for heavy-duty vehicles do not apply to PUJs. The results presented in this work provide a framework to help support targeted traffic interventions to improve urban air quality not only in Manila, but also in other countries with a similar fleet composed of old-technology vehicles. © 2019 by the authors.
Atomic oxygen number densities in the mesosphere–lower thermosphere region measured by solid electrolyte sensors onWADIS-2
Absolute profiles of atomic oxygen number densities with high vertical resolution have been determined in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region from in situ measurements by several rocket-borne solid electrolyte sensors. The amperometric sensors were operated in both controlled and uncontrolled modes and with various orientations on the foredeck and aft deck of the payload. Calibration was based on mass spectrometry in a molecular beam containing atomic oxygen produced in a microwave discharge. The sensor signal is proportional to the number flux onto the electrodes, and the mass flow rate in the molecular beam was additionally measured to derive this quantity from the spectrometer reading. Numerical simulations provided aerodynamic correction factors to derive the atmospheric number density of atomic oxygen from the sensor data. The flight results indicate a preferable orientation of the electrode surface perpendicular to the rocket axis. While unstable during the upleg, the density profiles measured by these sensors show an excellent agreement with the atmospheric models and photometer results during the downleg of the trajectory. The high spatial resolution of the measurements allows for the identification of small-scale variations in the atomic oxygen concentration. © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Climatologies and long-term changes in mesospheric wind and wave measurements based on radar observations at high and mid latitudes
We report on long-term observations of atmospheric parameters in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) made over the last 2 decades. Within this study, we show, based on meteor wind measurement, the long-term variability of winds, tides, and kinetic energy of planetary and gravity waves. These measurements were done between the years 2002 and 2018 for the high-latitude location of Andenes (69.3°N, 16°E) and the mid-latitude locations of Juliusruh (54.6°N, 13.4°E) and Tavistock (43.3°N, 80.8°W). While the climatologies for each location show a similar pattern, the locations differ strongly with respect to the altitude and season of several parameters. Our results show annual wind tendencies for Andenes which are toward the south and to the west, with changes of up to 3°m s-1 per decade, while the mid-latitude locations show smaller opposite tendencies to negligible changes. The diurnal tides show nearly no significant long-term changes, while changes for the semidiurnal tides differ regarding altitude. Andenes shows only during winter a tidal weakening above 90°km, while for the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) an enhancement of the semidiurnal tides during the winter and a weakening during fall occur. Furthermore, the kinetic energy for planetary waves showed strong peak values during winters which also featured the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming. The influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the winds and tides is presented. The amplitudes of the mean winds exhibit a significant amplitude response for the zonal component below 82°km during summer and from November to December between 84 and 95°km at Andenes and CMOR. The semidiurnal tides (SDTs) show a clear 11-year response at all locations, from October to November. © 2019 by ASME.
Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland
The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
On the Buoyancy Subrange in Stratified Turbulence
This study is motivated by the importance of the stratified turbulence in geophysical flows. We present a theoretical analysis of the buoyancy subrange based on the theory of strongly stratified turbulence. Some important turbulent scales and their relations are explored. Scaling constants of the buoyancy subrange scaling laws for both kinetic and potential energy spectra are derived and analyzed. It is found that these constants are functions of the horizontal Froude number Frh . For the potential energy spectrum, the scaling constant also depends on the turbulent flux coefficient of Γ .
High-resolution vertical velocities and their power spectrum observed with the MAARSY radar – Part 1: frequency spectrum
The Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System (MAARSY) installed at the island of Andøya has been run for continuous probing of atmospheric winds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. In the current study, we present high-resolution wind measurements during the period between 2010 and 2013 with MAARSY. The spectral analysis applying the Lomb–Scargle periodogram method has been carried out to determine the frequency spectra of vertical wind velocity. From a total of 522 days of observations, the statistics of the spectral slope have been derived and show a dependence on the background wind conditions. It is a general feature that the observed spectra of vertical velocity during active periods (with wind velocity > 10 m s−1) are much steeper than during quiet periods (with wind velocity < 10 m s−1). The distribution of spectral slopes is roughly symmetric with a maximum at −5/3 during active periods, whereas a very asymmetric distribution with a maximum at around −1 is observed during quiet periods. The slope profiles along altitudes reveal a significant height dependence for both conditions, i.e., the spectra become shallower with increasing altitudes in the upper troposphere and maintain roughly a constant slope in the lower stratosphere. With both wind conditions considered together the general spectra are obtained and their slopes are compared with the background horizontal winds. The comparisons show that the observed spectra become steeper with increasing wind velocities under quiet conditions, approach a spectral slope of −5/3 at a wind velocity of 10 m s−1 and then roughly maintain this slope (−5/3) for even stronger winds. Our findings show an overall agreement with previous studies; furthermore, they provide a more complete climatology of frequency spectra of vertical wind velocities under different wind conditions.
A Method for Retrieving Stratospheric Aerosol Extinction and Particle Size from Ground-Based Rayleigh-Mie-Raman Lidar Observations
We report on the retrieval of stratospheric aerosol particle size and extinction coefficient profiles from multi-color backscatter measurements with the Rayleigh-Mie-Raman lidar operated at the Arctic Lidar Observatory for Middle Atmosphere Research (ALOMAR) in northern Norway. The retrievals are based on a two-step approach. In a first step, the median radius of an assumed monomodal log-normal particle size distribution with fixed width is retrieved based on a color index formed from the measured backscatter ratios at the wavelengths of 1064nm and 532 nm. An intrinsic ambiguity of the retrieved aerosol size information is discussed. In a second step, this particle size information is used to convert the measured lidar backscatter ratio to aerosol extinction coefficients. The retrieval is currently based on monthly-averaged lidar measurements and the results for March 2013 are discussed. A sensitivity study is presented that allows for establishing an error budget for the aerosol retrievals. Assuming a monomodal log-normal aerosol particle size distribution with a geometric width of S = 1.5, median radii on the order of below 100 nm are retrieved. The median radii are found to generally decrease with increasing altitude. The retrieved aerosol extinction profiles are compared to observations with the OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System) and the OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping Profiling Suite Limb Profiler) satellite instruments in the 60° N to 80° N latitude band. The extinction profiles that were retrieved from the lidar measurements show good agreement with the observations of the two satellite instruments when taking the different wavelengths of the instruments into account. © 2020 by the authors.
Effectivity and Cost Efficiency of a Tax on Nitrogen Fertilizer to Reduce GHG Emissions from Agriculture
The use of nitrogen (N) fertilizer substantially contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to N2O emissions from agricultural soils and energy-intensive fertilizer manufacturing. Thus, a reduction of mineral N fertilizer use can contribute to reduced GHG emissions. Fertilizer tax is a potential instrument to provide incentives to apply less fertilizer and contribute to the mitigation of GHG emissions. This study provides model results based on a production function analysis from field experiments in Brandenburg and Schleswig-Holstein, with respect to risk aversion by calculating certainty equivalents for different levels of risk aversion. The model results were used to identify effective and cost-efficient options considering farmers’ risk aversion to reduce N fertilizer, and to compare the potential and cost of GHG mitigation with different N fertilizer tax schemes. The results show that moderate N tax levels are effective in reducing N fertilizer levels, and thus, in curbing GHG emissions at costs below 100 €/t CO2eq for rye, barley and canola. However, in wheat production, N tax has limited effects on economically optimal N use due to the effects of N fertilizer on crop quality, which affect the sale prices of wheat. The findings indicate that the level of risk aversion does not have a consistent impact on the reduction of N fertilizer with a tax, even though the level of N fertilizer use is generally lower for risk-averse agents. The differences in N fertilizer response might have an impact on the relative advantage of different crops, which should be taken into account for an effective implementation of a tax on N fertilizer.