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- ItemBilinear pressure diffusion and termination of bilinear flow in a vertically fractured well injecting at constant pressure(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Pérez Donoso, Patricio-Ignacio; Ortiz Rojas, Adrián-Enrique; Meneses Rioseco, ErnestoThis work studies intensively the flow in fractures with finite hydraulic conductivity intersected by a well injecting or producing at constant pressure, either during an injection or production well test or the operation of a production well. Previous investigations showed that for a certain time the reciprocal of flow rate is proportional to the fourth root of time, which is characteristic of the flow regime known as bilinear flow. Using a 2D numerical model, we demonstrated that during the bilinear flow regime the transient propagation of isobars along the fracture is proportional to the fourth root of time. Moreover, we present relations to calculate the termination time of bilinear flow under constant injection or production well pressure as well as an expression for the bilinear hydraulic diffusivity of fractures with finite hydraulic conductivity. To determine the termination of bilinear flow regime, two different methods were used: (a) numerically measuring the transient flow rate in the well and (b) analyzing the propagation of isobars along the fracture. Numerical results show that for low dimensionless fracture conductivities the transition from bilinear flow to another flow regime (e.g., pseudo-radial flow) occurs before the pressure front reaches the fracture tip, and for high dimensionless fracture conductivities it occurs when the pressure front arrives at the fracture tip. Hence, this work complements and advances previous research on the interpretation and evaluation of well test analysis under different reservoir conditions. Our results aim to improve the understanding of the hydraulic diffusion in fractured geologic media, and as a result they can be utilized for the interpretation of hydraulic tests, for example to estimate the fracture length.
- ItemA multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems(Göttingen : Copernicus Publ., 2020) Heino, Matias; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Müller, Christoph; Iizumi, Toshichika; Kummu, MattiClimate oscillations are periodically fluctuating oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, which are related to variations in weather patterns and crop yields worldwide. In terms of crop production, the most widespread impacts have been observed for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been found to impact crop yields on all continents that produce crops, while two other climate oscillations - the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have been shown to especially impact crop production in Australia and Europe, respectively. In this study, we analyse the impacts of ENSO, IOD, and NAO on the growing conditions of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat at the global scale by utilising crop yield data from an ensemble of global gridded crop models simulated for a range of crop management scenarios. Our results show that, while accounting for their potential co-variation, climate oscillations are correlated with simulated crop yield variability to a wide extent (half of all maize and wheat harvested areas for ENSO) and in several important crop-producing areas, e.g. in North America (ENSO, wheat), Australia (IOD and ENSO, wheat), and northern South America (ENSO, soybean). Further, our analyses show that higher sensitivity to these oscillations can be observed for rainfed and fully fertilised scenarios, while the sensitivity tends to be lower if crops were to be fully irrigated. Since the development of ENSO, IOD, and NAO can potentially be forecasted well in advance, a better understanding about the relationship between crop production and these climate oscillations can improve the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.