409 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 409
- ItemGround-based noontime D-region electron density climatology over northern Norway(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2023) Renkwitz, Toralf; Sivakandan, Mani; Jaen, Juliana; Singer, WernerThe bottom part of the Earth's ionosphere is the so-called D region, which is typically less dense than the upper regions. Despite the comparably lower electron density, the ionization state of the D region has a significant influence on signal absorption for propagating lower to medium radio frequencies. We present local noon climatologies of electron densities in the upper middle atmosphere (50-90km) at high latitudes as observed by an active radar experiment. The radar measurements cover 9 years (2014-2022) from the solar maximum of cycle 24 to the beginning of cycle 25. Reliable electron densities are derived by employing signal processing, applying interferometry methods, and applying the Faraday-International Reference Ionosphere (FIRI) model. For all years a consistent spring-fall asymmetry of the electron density pattern with a gradual increase during summer as well as a sharp decrease at the beginning of October was found. These findings are consistent with very low frequency (VLF) studies showing equivalent signatures for nearby propagation paths. It is suggested that the meridional circulation associated with downwelling in winter could cause enhanced electron densities through NO transport. However, this mechanism can not explain the reduction in electron density in early October.
- ItemThe influence of aggregation and statistical post‐processing on the subseasonal predictability of European temperatures(Weinheim [u.a.] : Wiley, 2020) Straaten, Chiem; Whan, Kirien; Coumou, Dim; Hurk, Bart; Schmeits, MauriceThe succession of European surface weather patterns has limited predictability because disturbances quickly transfer to the large-scale flow. Some aggregated statistics, however, such as the average temperature exceeding a threshold, can have extended predictability when adequate spatial scales, temporal scales and thresholds are chosen. This study benchmarks how the forecast skill horizon of probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts from the subseasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) evolves with varying scales and thresholds. We apply temporal aggregation by rolling-window averaging and spatial aggregation by hierarchical clustering. We verify 20 years of re-forecasts against the E-OBS dataset and find that European predictability extends at maximum into the fourth week. Simple aggregation and standard statistical post-processing extend the forecast skill horizon with two and three skilful days on average, respectively. The intuitive notion that higher levels of aggregation capture large-scale and low-frequency variability and can therefore tap into extended predictability holds in many cases. However, we show that the effect can be saturated and that there exist regional optimums beyond which extra aggregation reduces the forecast skill horizon. We expect such windows of predictability to result from specific physical mechanisms that only modulate and extend predictability locally. To optimize subseasonal forecasts for Europe, aggregation should thus be limited in certain cases.
- ItemQuantifying Southern Annular Mode paleo-reconstruction skill in a model framework(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus Ges., 2021) Huiskamp, Willem; McGregor, ShaynePast attempts to reconstruct the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) using paleo-archives have resulted in records which can differ significantly from one another prior to the window over which the proxies are calibrated. This study attempts to quantify not only the skill with which we may expect to reconstruct the SAM but also to assess the contribution of regional bias in proxy selection and the impact of non-stationary proxy–SAM teleconnections on a resulting reconstruction. This is achieved using a pseudoproxy framework with output from the GFDL CM2.1 global climate model. Reconstructions derived from precipitation fields perform better, with 89 % of the reconstructions calibrated over a 61 year window able to reproduce at least 50 % of the inter-annual variance in the SAM, as opposed to just 25 % for surface air temperature (SAT)-derived reconstructions. Non-stationarity of proxy–SAM teleconnections, as defined here, plays a small role in reconstructions, but the range in reconstruction skill is not negligible. Reconstructions are most likely to be skilful when proxies are sourced from a geographically broad region with a network size of at least 70 proxies.
- ItemPorosity estimation of a geothermal carbonate reservoir in the German Molasse Basin based on seismic amplitude inversion(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : SpringerOpen, 2022) Wadas, Sonja Halina; von Hartmann, HartwigThe Molasse Basin is one of the most promising areas for deep geothermal exploitation in Germany and the target horizon is the aquifer in the Upper Jurassic carbonates. Carbonate deposits can be very heterogeneous even over a small area due to diagenetic processes and varying depositional environments. The preferential targets for geothermal exploitation in carbonate deposits are fault zones, reef facies and karstified areas, since they are expected to act as hydraulically permeable zones due to high porosity and high permeability. Therefore, identifying these structures and characterizing, e.g., their internal porosity distribution are of high importance. This can be accomplished using 3D reflection seismic data. Besides structural information, 3D seismic surveys provide important reservoir properties, such as acoustic impedance, from which a porosity model can be derived. In our study area in Munich we carried out a seismic amplitude inversion to get an acoustic impedance model of the Upper Jurassic carbonate reservoir using a 3D seismic data set, a corresponding structural geological model, and logging data from six wells at the ‘Schäftlarnstraße’ geothermal site. The impedance model and porosity logs were than used to calculate a porosity model. The model shows a wide porosity range from 0 to 20% for the entire reservoir zone and the lithology along the wells reveals that dolomitic limestone has the highest porosities and calcareous dolomite has the lowest porosities. The study area is cut by a large W–E striking fault, the Munich Fault, and the footwall north of it shows higher porosities and more intense karstification than the hanging wall to the south. Considering the entire study area, an increase in porosity from east to west is observed. Furthermore, we identified a complex porosity distribution in reef buildups and pinnacle reefs. The reef cores have mostly low porosities of, e.g., < 3% and the highest porosities of up to 7 to 14% are observed at the reef caps and on the reef slopes. The reef slopes show a characteristic interfingering of the reef facies with the surrounding bedded facies, which indicates a syn-sedimentary reef development with slightly varying build up growth rates. We also assessed the reservoir quality with regard to porosity distribution and determined areas with moderate to good quality for geothermal exploitation by defining porosity evaluation levels. The porosity evaluation maps show that the carbonate rocks of Berriasian to Malm ζ1 are preferential targets for exploitation, especially in the footwall of the Munich Fault and to the west of the hanging wall, because these areas are characterized by high porosities due to intense karstification of bedded and massive facies, although the latter is mainly restricted to reef caps and reef slopes.
- ItemEarly Warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase Transition Using Complex Network Analysis(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2021) Lu, Zhenghui; Yuan, Naiming; Yang, Qing; Ma, Zhuguo; Kurths, JürgenObtaining an efficient prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase transition is a worldwide challenge. Here, we employed the climate network analysis to uncover early warning signals prior to a PDO phase transition. This way an examination of cooperative behavior in the PDO region revealed an enhanced signal that propagated from the western Pacific to the northwest coast of North America. The detection of this signal corresponds very well to the time when the upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial northwestern tropical Pacific reaches a threshold, in which case a PDO phase transition may be expected with the arising of the next El Ni urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0001o/La Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0002 a event. The objectively detected early warning signal successfully forewarned all the six PDO phase transitions from the 1890–2000, and also underpinned the possible PDO phase transition around 2015, which may be triggered by the strong El Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0003o event in 2015–2016.
- ItemThe impact of biomass burning and aqueous-phase processing on air quality: A multi-year source apportionment study in the Po Valley, Italy(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Paglione, Marco; Gilardoni, Stefania; Rinaldi, Matteo; Decesari, Stefano; Zanca, Nicola; Sandrini, Silvia; Giulianelli, Lara; Bacco, Dimitri; Ferrari, Silvia; Poluzzi, Vanes; Scotto, Fabiana; Trentini, Arianna; Poulain, Laurent; Herrmann, Hartmut; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Canonaco, Francesco; Prévôt, André S.H.; Massoli, Paola; Carbone, Claudio; Facchini, Maria Cristina; Fuzzi, SandroThe Po Valley (Italy) is a well-known air quality hotspot characterized by particulate matter (PM) levels well above the limit set by the European Air Quality Directive and by the World Health Organization, especially during the colder season. In the framework of Emilia-Romagna regional project "Supersito", the southern Po Valley submicron aerosol chemical composition was characterized by means of high-resolution aerosol mass spectroscopy (HR-AMS) with the specific aim of organic aerosol (OA) characterization and source apportionment. Eight intensive observation periods (IOPs) were carried out over 4 years (from 2011 to 2014) at two different sites (Bologna, BO, urban background, and San Pietro Capofiume, SPC, rural background), to characterize the spatial variability and seasonality of the OA sources, with a special focus on the cold season. On the multi-year basis of the study, the AMS observations show that OA accounts for averages of 45 ± 8 % (ranging from 33 % to 58 %) and 46 ± 7 % (ranging from 36 % to 50 %) of the total non-refractory submicron particle mass (PM1-NR) at the urban and rural sites, respectively. Primary organic aerosol (POA) comprises biomass burning (23±13 % of OA) and fossil fuel (12±7 %) contributions with a marked seasonality in concentration. As expected, the biomass burning contribution to POA is more significant at the rural site (urban / rural concentration ratio of 0.67), but it is also an important source of POA at the urban site during the cold season, with contributions ranging from 14 % to 38 % of the total OA mass. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) contributes to OA mass to a much larger extent than POA at both sites throughout the year (69 ± 16 % and 83 ± 16 % at the urban and rural sites, respectively), with important implications for public health. Within the secondary fraction of OA, the measurements highlight the importance of biomass burning aging products during the cold season, even at the urban background site. This biomass burning SOA fraction represents 14 %-44 % of the total OA mass in the cold season, indicating that in this region a major contribution of combustion sources to PM mass is mediated by environmental conditions and atmospheric reactivity. © 2020 Author(s).
- ItemExchange-Striction Driven Ultrafast Nonthermal Lattice Dynamics in NiO(College Park, Md. : APS, 2021) Windsor, Y.W.; Zahn, D.; Kamrla, R.; Feldl, J.; Seiler, H.; Chiang, C.-T.; Ramsteiner, M.; Widdra, W.; Ernstorfer, R.; Rettig, L.We use femtosecond electron diffraction to study ultrafast lattice dynamics in the highly correlated antiferromagnetic (AFM) semiconductor NiO. Using the scattering vector (Q) dependence of Bragg diffraction, we introduce Q-resolved effective temperatures describing the transient lattice. We identify a nonthermal lattice state with preferential displacement of O compared to Ni ions, which occurs within ∼0.3 ps and persists for 25 ps. We associate this with transient changes to the AFM exchange striction-induced lattice distortion, supported by the observation of a transient Q asymmetry of Friedel pairs. Our observation highlights the role of spin-lattice coupling in routes towards ultrafast control of spin order.
- ItemIs the near-spherical shape the "new black" for smoke?(Katlenburg-Lindau : EGU, 2020) Gialitaki, Anna; Tsekeri, Alexandra; Amiridis, Vassilis; Ceolato, Romain; Paulien, Lucas; Kampouri, Anna; Gkikas, Antonis; Solomos, Stavros; Marinou, Eleni; Haarig, Moritz; Baars, Holger; Ansmann, Albert; Lapyonok, Tatyana; Lopatin, Anton; Dubovik, Oleg; Groß, Silke; Wirth, Martin; Tsichla, Maria; Tsikoudi, Ioanna; Balis, DimitrisWe examine the capability of near-sphericalshaped particles to reproduce the triple-wavelength particle linear depolarization ratio (PLDR) and lidar ratio (LR) values measured over Europe for stratospheric smoke originating from Canadian wildfires. The smoke layers were detected both in the troposphere and the stratosphere, though in the latter case the particles presented PLDR values of almost 18% at 532 nm as well as a strong spectral dependence from the UV to the near-IR wavelength. Although recent simulation studies of rather complicated smoke particle morphologies have shown that heavily coated smoke aggregates can produce large PLDR, herein we propose a much simpler model of compact near-spherical smoke particles. This assumption allows for the reproduction of the observed intensive optical properties of stratospheric smoke, as well as their spectral dependence. We further examine whether an extension of the current Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) scattering model to include the near-spherical shapes could be of benefit to the AERONET retrieval for stratospheric smoke cases associated with enhanced PLDR. Results of our study illustrate the fact that triple-wavelength PLDR and LR lidar measurements can provide us with additional insight when it comes to particle characterization. © 2020 Author(s).
- ItemResults of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+)(Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2020) Cornford, Stephen L.; Seroussi, Helene; Asay-Davis, Xylar S.; Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar; Arthern, Rob; Borstad, Chris; Christmann, Julia; dos Santos, Thiago Dias; Feldmann, Johannes; Goldberg, Daniel; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Humbert, Angelika; Kleiner, Thomas; Leguy, Gunter; Lipscomb, William H.; Merino, Nacho; Durand, Gaël; Morlighem, Mathieu; Pollard, David; Rückamp, Martin; Williams, C. Rosie; Yu, HongjuWe present the result of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP+. MISMIP+ is intended to be a benchmark for ice-flow models which include fast sliding marine ice streams and floating ice shelves and in particular a treatment of viscous stress that is sufficient to model buttressing, where upstream ice flow is restrained by a downstream ice shelf. A set of idealized experiments first tests that models are able to maintain a steady state with the grounding line located on a retrograde slope due to buttressing and then explore scenarios where a reduction in that buttressing causes ice stream acceleration, thinning, and grounding line retreat. The majority of participating models passed the first test and then produced similar responses to the loss of buttressing. We find that the most important distinction between models in this particular type of simulation is in the treatment of sliding at the bed, with other distinctions - notably the difference between the simpler and more complete treatments of englacial stress but also the differences between numerical methods - taking a secondary role. © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications. All rights reserved.
- ItemTowards a more consistent eco-hydrological modelling through multi-objective calibration: a case study in the Andean Vilcanota River basin, Peru(Wallingford : IAHS Press, 2021) Fernandez-Palomino, Carlos Antonio; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina; Vega-Jácome, Fiorella; Bronstert, AxelMost hydrological studies rely on a model calibrated using discharge alone. However, judging the model reliability based on such calibration is problematic, as it does not guarantee the correct representation of internal hydrological processes. This study aims (a) to develop a comprehensive multi-objective calibration framework using remote sensing vegetation data and hydrological signatures (flow duration curve–FDC, and baseflow index) in addition to discharge, and (b) to apply this framework for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a typical Andean catchment. Overall, our calibration approach outperformed traditional discharge-based and FDC signature-based calibration strategies in terms of vegetation, streamflow, and flow partitioning simulation. New hydrological insights for the region are the following: baseflow is the main component of the streamflow sustaining the long dry-season flow, and pasture areas offer higher water yield and baseflow than other land-cover types. The proposed approach could be used in other data-scarce regions with complex topography. © 2020 IAHS.