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search.filters.applied.f.access: openAccess × End date: 2024 × Start date: 2020 × DDC: 333.7 × Version: publishedVersion × WGL Institute: PIK ×

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 45
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    Spatial-Explicit Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments Based on Impact Chains. Findings from a Case Study in Burundi
    (Basel : MDPI, 2020) Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Baunach, Daniel; Pedoth, Lydia; Renner, Kathrin; Fritzsche, Kerstin; Bollin, Christina; Pregnolato, Marco; Zebisch, Marc; Liersch, Stefan; Rivas López, María del Rocío; Ruzima, Salvator
    Climate change vulnerability assessments are an essential instrument to identify regions most vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change and to determine appropriate adaptation measures. Vulnerability assessments directly support countries in developing adaptation plans and in identifying possible measures to reduce adverse consequences of changing climate conditions. Against this background, this paper describes a vulnerability assessment using an integrated and participatory approach that builds on standardized working steps of previously developed ‘Vulnerability Sourcebook’ guidelines. The backbone of this approach is impact chains as a conceptual model of cause–effect relationships as well as a structured selection of indicators according to the three main components of vulnerability, namely exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach by reporting the results of a vulnerability assessment conducted in Burundi focusing on climate change impacts on water and soil resources. Our work covers two analysis scales: a national assessment with the aim to identify climate change ‘hotspot regions’ through vulnerability mapping; and a local assessment aiming at identifying local-specific drivers of vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures. Referring to this vulnerability assessment in Burundi, we discuss the potentials and constraints of the approach. We stress the need to involve stakeholders in every step of the assessment and to communicate limitations and uncertainties of the applied methods, indicators and maps in order to increase the comprehension of the approach and the acceptance of the results by different stakeholders. The study proved the practical usability of the approach at the national level by the selection of three particularly vulnerable areas. The results at a local scale supported the identification of adaption measures through intensive engagement of local rural populations.
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    Consistency in Vulnerability Assessments of Wheat to Climate Change—A District-Level Analysis in India
    (Basel : MDPI, 2020) Dhamija, Vanshika; Shukla, Roopam; Gornott, Christoph; Joshi, PK
    In India, a reduction in wheat crop yield would lead to a widespread impact on food security. In particular, the most vulnerable people are severely exposed to food insecurity. This study estimates the climate change vulnerability of wheat crops with respect to heterogeneities in time, space, and weighting methods. The study uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework of vulnerability while using composite indices of 27 indicators to explain exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We used climate projections under current (1975–2005) conditions and two future (2021–2050) Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, to estimate exposure to climatic risks. Consistency across three weighting methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Equal Weights (EWs)) was evaluated. Results of the vulnerability profile suggest high vulnerability of the wheat crop in northern and central India. In particular, the districts Unnao, Sirsa, Hardoi, and Bathinda show high vulnerability and high consistency across current and future climate scenarios. In total, 84% of the districts show more than 75% consistency in the current climate, and 83% and 68% of the districts show more than 75% consistency for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenario for the three weighting methods, respectively. By using different weighting methods, it was possible to quantify “method uncertainty” in vulnerability assessment and enhance robustness in identifying most vulnerable regions. Finally, we emphasize the importance of communicating uncertainties, both in data and methods in vulnerability research, to effectively guide adaptation planning. The results of this study would serve as the basis for designing climate impacts adjusted adaptation measures for policy interventions.
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    Interplay between Diets, Health, and Climate Change
    (Basel : MDPI, 2020) Pradhan, Prajal; Kropp, Jürgen P.
    The world is facing a triple burden of undernourishment, obesity, and environmental impacts from agriculture while nourishing its population. This burden makes sustainable nourishment of the growing population a global challenge. Addressing this challenge requires an understanding of the interplay between diets, health, and associated environmental impacts (e.g., climate change). For this, we identify 11 typical diets that represent dietary habits worldwide for the last five decades. Plant-source foods provide most of all three macronutrients (carbohydrates, protein, and fat) in developing countries. In contrast, animal-source foods provide a majority of protein and fat in developed ones. The identified diets deviate from the recommended healthy diet with either too much (e.g., red meat) or too little (e.g., fruits and vegetables) food and nutrition supply. The total calorie supplies are lower than required for two diets. Sugar consumption is higher than recommended for five diets. Three and five diets consist of larger-than-recommended carbohydrate and fat shares, respectively. Four diets with a large share of animal-source foods exceed the recommended value of red meat. Only two diets consist of at least 400 gm/cap/day of fruits and vegetables while accounting for food waste. Prevalence of undernourishment and underweight dominates in the diets with lower calories. In comparison, a higher prevalence of obesity is observed for diets with higher calories with high shares of sugar, fat, and animal-source foods. However, embodied emissions in the diets do not show a clear relation with calorie supplies and compositions. Two high-calorie diets embody more than 1.5 t CO 2 eq/cap/yr, and two low-calorie diets embody around 1 t CO 2 eq/cap/yr. Our analysis highlights that sustainable and healthy diets can serve the purposes of both nourishing the population and, at the same time, reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.
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    Education and Disaster Vulnerability in Southeast Asia: Evidence and Policy Implications
    (Basel : MDPI, 2020) Hoffmann, Roman; Blecha, Daniela
    This article summarizes the growing theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of education on disaster vulnerability with a focus on Southeast Asia. Education and learning can take place in different environments in more or less formalized ways. They can influence disaster vulnerability as the capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from natural hazard in direct and indirect ways. Directly, through education and learning, individuals acquire knowledge, abilities, skills and perceptions that allow them to effectively prepare for and cope with the consequences of disaster shocks. Indirectly, education gives individuals and households access to material, informational and social resources, which can help reducing disaster vulnerability. We highlight central concepts and terminologies and discuss the different theoretical mechanisms through which education may have an impact. Supportive empirical evidence is presented and discussed with a particular focus on the role of inclusiveness in education and challenges in achieving universal access to high-quality education. Based on situation analysis and best practice cases, policy implications are derived that can inform the design and implementation of education and learning-based disaster risk reduction efforts in the region.
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    The future of Swiss hydropower: how to distribute the risk and the profits?
    (Cham, Switzerland : Springer Nature Switzerland AG, 2021) Kosch, Mirjam; Betz, Regina; Geissmann, Thomas; Schillinger, Moritz; Weigt, Hannes
    Low electricity prices put economic pressure on hydropower companies. A more flexible water fee design can counteract this pressure and support hydropower companies during times when market revenues are low. However, this comes at the cost of lower revenues for resource owners. Using a sample of cost data for 62 companies and revenue data derived from an electricity market model, we have quantified this trade-off for the case of Switzerland. We found that electricity market price developments dominate changes in water fees and that for the profitability of hydropower, electricity prices are more important than water fee levels. However, with electricity prices of around CHF 40 per MWh, water fees can make the difference between profit and loss. Therefore, while flexible water fee regimes shift the market risk from producers to resource owners to some extent, the extent of this risk shift depends on the detailed design of the flexible regime.
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    The Long-Term Evolution of the Atmosphere of Venus: Processes and Feedback Mechanisms: Interior-Exterior Exchanges
    (Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 2022) Gillmann, Cedric; Way, M. J.; Avice, Guillaume; Breuer, Doris; Golabek, Gregor J.; Höning, Dennis; Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Lammer, Helmut; O’Rourke, Joseph G.; Persson, Moa; Plesa, Ana-Catalina; Salvador, Arnaud; Scherf, Manuel; Zolotov, Mikhail Y.
    This work reviews the long-term evolution of the atmosphere of Venus, and modulation of its composition by interior/exterior cycling. The formation and evolution of Venus’s atmosphere, leading to contemporary surface conditions, remain hotly debated topics, and involve questions that tie into many disciplines. We explore these various inter-related mechanisms which shaped the evolution of the atmosphere, starting with the volatile sources and sinks. Going from the deep interior to the top of the atmosphere, we describe volcanic outgassing, surface-atmosphere interactions, and atmosphere escape. Furthermore, we address more complex aspects of the history of Venus, including the role of Late Accretion impacts, how magnetic field generation is tied into long-term evolution, and the implications of geochemical and geodynamical feedback cycles for atmospheric evolution. We highlight plausible end-member evolutionary pathways that Venus could have followed, from accretion to its present-day state, based on modeling and observations. In a first scenario, the planet was desiccated by atmospheric escape during the magma ocean phase. In a second scenario, Venus could have harbored surface liquid water for long periods of time, until its temperate climate was destabilized and it entered a runaway greenhouse phase. In a third scenario, Venus’s inefficient outgassing could have kept water inside the planet, where hydrogen was trapped in the core and the mantle was oxidized. We discuss existing evidence and future observations/missions required to refine our understanding of the planet’s history and of the complex feedback cycles between the interior, surface, and atmosphere that have been operating in the past, present or future of Venus.
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    Future tree survival in European forests depends on understorey tree diversity
    (London : Nature Publishing Group, 2022) Billing, Maik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Sakschewski, Boris; Bloh, Werner von; Walz, Ariane
    Climate change heavily threatens forest ecosystems worldwide and there is urgent need to understand what controls tree survival and forests stability. There is evidence that biodiversity can enhance ecosystem stability (Loreau and de Mazancourt in Ecol Lett 16:106–115, 2013; McCann in Nature 405:228–233, 2000), however it remains largely unclear whether this also holds for climate change and what aspects of biodiversity might be most important. Here we apply machine learning to outputs of a flexible-trait Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to unravel the effects of enhanced functional tree trait diversity and its sub-components on climate-change resistance of temperate forests (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~billing/video/Forest_Resistance_LPJmLFIT.mp4). We find that functional tree trait diversity enhances forest resistance. We explain this with 1. stronger complementarity effects (~ 25% importance) especially improving the survival of trees in the understorey of up to + 16.8% (± 1.6%) and 2. environmental and competitive filtering of trees better adapted to future climate (40–87% importance). We conclude that forests containing functionally diverse trees better resist and adapt to future conditions. In this context, we especially highlight the role of functionally diverse understorey trees as they provide the fundament for better survival of young trees and filtering of resistant tree individuals in the future.
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    No polarization–Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists
    (Basel : MDPI, 2020) Persson, Johannes; Blennow, Kristina; Gonçalves, Luísa; Borys, Alexander; Dutcă, Ioan; Hynynen, Jari; Janeczko, Emilia; Lyubenova, Mariyana; Martel, Simon; Merganic, Jan; Merganičová, Katarína; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Petr, Michal; Reboredo, Fernando H.; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Reyer, Christopher P.O.
    The role of values in climate-related decision-making is a prominent theme of climate communication research. The present study examines whether forest professionals are more driven by values than scientists are, and if this results in value polarization. A questionnaire was designed to elicit and assess the values assigned to expected effects of climate change by forest professionals and scientists working on forests and climate change in Europe. The countries involved covered a north-to-south and west-to-east gradient across Europe, representing a wide range of bio-climatic conditions and a mix of economic–social–political structures. We show that European forest professionals and scientists do not exhibit polarized expectations about the values of specific impacts of climate change on forests in their countries. In fact, few differences between forest professionals and scientists were found. However, there are interesting differences in the expected values of forest professionals with regard to climate change impacts across European countries. In Northern European countries, the aggregated values of the expected effects are more neutral than they are in Southern Europe, where they are more negative. Expectations about impacts on timber production, economic returns, and regulatory ecosystem services are mostly negative, while expectations about biodiversity and energy production are mostly positive.
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    Changing seasonal temperature offers a window of opportunity for stricter climate policy
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 2022) Pfeifer, Lena; Otto, Ilona M.
    Environmental catastrophes, including the increased severity and frequency of climate extremes, can act as “windows of opportunities” that challenge citizens’ mental models and motivate them to engage in reflective processes, challenging their pre-conceived ideas. Less well understood is whether experiencing changing weather conditions, common in mid-latitudes, can have a similar effect and increase the citizens’ concerns about climate change and their willingness to accept more stringent climate policies. In this paper, we investigate the effects of changing seasonal temperature on the perceived seriousness of climate change and willingness to mitigate climate change. We use data from four yearly waves of a spatially explicit representative population survey in Germany and weather records from the postal code areas in which they live. To our knowledge, this study is the first analysis to link individual perceptions towards climate change and different mitigation options with seasonal temperature changes at specific locations in Europe. The analyzed perceptions were strongly influenced by socio-demographic characteristics and broader societal changes, as well as individual experiences of seasonal temperatures. The results show that experienced seasonal temperature change influences personal climate change concerns as well as the willingness to mitigate climate change, although with a weaker effect. The results indicate that it is the absolute temperature variation experienced that is important, rather than whether it is getting colder or warmer than usual. Considering the influences identified in this study can offer a window of opportunity for more stringent and targeted climate change policy.