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- ItemAmmonia and greenhouse gas emissions from slurry storage : A review(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Kupper, Thomas; Häni, Christoph; Neftel, Albrecht; Kincaid, Chris; Bühler, Marcel; Amon, Barbara; VanderZaag, AndrewStorage of slurry is an important emission source for ammonia (NH3), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) from livestock production. Therefore, this study collected published emission data from stored cattle and pig slurry to determine baseline emission values and emission changes due to slurry treatment and coverage of stores. Emission data were collected from 120 papers yielding 711 records of measurements conducted at farm-, pilot- and laboratory-scale. The emission data reported in a multitude of units were standardized and compiled in a database. Descriptive statistics of the data from untreated slurry stored uncovered revealed a large variability in emissions for all gases. To determine baseline emissions, average values based on a weighting of the emission data according to the season and the duration of the emission measurements were constructed using the data from farm-scale and pilot-scale studies. Baseline emissions for cattle and pig slurry stored uncovered were calculated. When possible, it was further distinguished between storage in tanks without slurry treatment and storage in lagoons which implies solid-liquid separation and biological treatment. The baseline emissions on an area or volume basis are: for NH3: 0.12 g m−2 h-1 and 0.15 g m−2 h-1 for cattle and pig slurry stored in lagoons, and 0.08 g m−2 h-1 and 0.24 g m−2 h-1 for cattle and pig slurry stored in tanks; for N2O: 0.0003 g m−2 h-1 for cattle slurry stored in lagoons, and 0.002 g m−2 h-1 for both slurry types stored in tanks; for CH4: 0.95 g m-3 h-1 and 3.5 g m-3 h-1 for cattle and pig slurry stored in lagoons, and 0.58 g m-3 h-1 and 0.68 g m-3 h-1 for cattle and pig slurry stored in tanks; for CO2: 6.6 g m−2 h-1 and 0.3 g m−2 h-1 for cattle and pig slurry stored in lagoons, and 8.0 g m−2 h-1 for both slurry types stored in tanks; for H2S: 0.04 g m−2 h-1 and 0.01 g m−2 h-1 for cattle and pig slurry stored in lagoons. Related to total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN), baseline emissions for tanks are 16% and 15% of TAN for cattle and pig slurry, respectively. Emissions of N2O and CH4 relative to nitrogen (N) and volatile solids (VS) are 0.13% of N and 0.10% of N and 2.9% of VS and 4.7% of VS for cattle and pig slurry, respectively. Total greenhouse gas emissions from slurry stores are dominated by CH4. The records on slurry treatment using acidification show a reduction of NH3 and CH4 emissions during storage while an increase occurs for N2O and a minor change for CO2 as compared to untreated slurry. Solid-liquid separation causes higher losses for NH3 and a reduction in CH4, N2O and CO2 emissions. Anaerobically digested slurry shows higher emissions during storage for NH3 while losses tend to be lower for CH4 and little changes occur for N2O and CO2 compared to untreated slurry. All cover types are found to be efficient for emission mitigation of NH3 from stores. The N2O emissions increase in many cases due to coverage. Lower CH4 emissions occur for impermeable covers as compared to uncovered slurry storage while for permeable covers the effect is unclear or emissions tend to increase. Limited and inconsistent data regarding emission changes with covering stores are available for CO2 and H2S. The compiled data provide a basis for improving emission inventories and highlight the need for further research to reduce uncertainty and fill data gaps regarding emissions from slurry storage.
- ItemOccupational health and safety in agriculture – a brief report on organization, legislation and support in selected European countries(Lublin : Institute of Agricultural Medicine, 2021) Jakob, Martina Carola; Santa, Dushica; Holte, Kari Anne; Sikkeland, Inger Johanne; Hilt, Bjorn; Lundqvist, PeterIntroduction and objective: Agriculture and forestry are among the most dangerous professions in Europe, with a high level of accidents affecting the sustainability and viability of the sector. International conventions, EU directives and national legislation build the fundamental basis for prevention. The aim of the study is to describe and categorize national mechanisms of occupational safety and health (OSH) for agricultural workers in Europe, to assess the extent of implementing safety regulation, the body in charge, and to give examples of health and safety initiatives. Material and methods: Results of a questionnaire-survey on basic safety regulations on farms sent by e-mail to the representatives of 30 participating European countries in the context of the Sacurima COST action network (CA 16123) are presented. Due to the complexity, only selected countries are described in this study highlighting the regulative bodies, occupational health services or specific training offers, as well as the complexity of the mechanisms. Results: One of the most serious issues and deficits of EU OSH regulation is the exclusion of self-employed farmers who compose nearly 90% of the farming population. This leads to serious under-reporting of accidents, and because one of the most common measures for the performance of health and safety initiatives are the injury and ill health statistics, better registration systems are urgently needed in almost all countries as a basis for preventive efforts. Conclusions: The results of the study provide a basis for raising awareness about the current OSH systems in Europe, and the importance of developing sector specific OSH strategies. The proposed activities should assist in tackling high accident rates and poor occupational health for self-employed farmers.
- ItemDeep decarbonisation of buildings energy services through demand and supply transformations in a 1.5°C scenario(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021-5-12) Levesque, Antoine; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Baumstark, Lavinia; Luderer, GunnarBuildings energy consumption is one of the most important contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide, responsible for 23% of energy-related CO2 emissions. Decarbonising the energy demand of buildings will require two types of strategies: first, an overall reduction in energy demand, which could, to some extent, be achieved at negative costs; and second through a reduction of the carbon content of energy via fuel switching and supply-side decarbonisation. This study assesses the contributions of each of these strategies for the decarbonisation of the buildings sector in line with a 1.5°C global warming. We show that in a 1.5°C scenario combining mitigation policies and a reduction of market failures in efficiency markets, 81% of the reductions in buildings emissions are achieved through the reduction of the carbon content of energy, while the remaining 19% are due to efficiency improvements which reduce energy demand by 31%. Without supply-side decarbonisation, efficiency improvements almost entirely suppress the doubling of emissions that would otherwise be expected, but fail to induce an absolute decline in emissions. Our modelling and scenarios show the impact of both climate change mitigation policies and of the alleviation of market failures pervading through energy efficiency markets. The results show that the reduction of the carbon content of energy through fuel switching and supply-side decarbonisation is of paramount importance for the decarbonisation of buildings.
- ItemEarly retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2020) Fofrich, Robert; Tong, Dan; Calvin, Katherine; De Boer, Harmen Sytze; Emmerling, Johannes; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Luderer, Gunnar; Rogelj, Joeri; Davis, Steven J.International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.
- ItemThe CO2 reduction potential for the European industry via direct electrification of heat supply (power-to-heat)(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2020) Madeddu, Silvia; Ueckerdt, Falko; Pehl, Michaja; Peterseim, Juergen; Lord, Michael; Kumar, Karthik Ajith; Krüger, Christoph; Luderer, GunnarThe decarbonisation of industry is a bottleneck for the EU's 2050 target of climate neutrality. Replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon electricity is at the core of this challenge; however, the aggregate electrification potential and resulting system-wide CO2 reductions for diverse industrial processes are unknown. Here, we present the results from a comprehensive bottom-up analysis of the energy use in 11 industrial sectors (accounting for 92% of Europe's industry CO2 emissions), and estimate the technological potential for industry electrification in three stages. Seventy-eight per cent of the energy demand is electrifiable with technologies that are already established, while 99% electrification can be achieved with the addition of technologies currently under development. Such a deep electrification reduces CO2 emissions already based on the carbon intensity of today's electricity (∼300 gCO2 kWhel−1). With an increasing decarbonisation of the power sector IEA: 12 gCO2 kWhel−1 in 2050), electrification could cut CO2 emissions by 78%, and almost entirely abate the energy-related CO2 emissions, reducing the industry bottleneck to only residual process emissions. Despite its decarbonisation potential, the extent to which direct electrification will be deployed in industry remains uncertain and depends on the relative cost of electric technologies compared to other low-carbon options.
- ItemRootzone storage capacity reveals drought coping strategies along rainforest-savanna transitions(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2020) Singh, Chandrakant; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Fetzer, Ingo; Rockström, Johan; van der Ent, RuudClimate change and deforestation have increased the risk of drought-induced forest-to-savanna transitions across the tropics and subtropics. However, the present understanding of forest-savanna transitions is generally focused on the influence of rainfall and fire regime changes, but does not take into account the adaptability of vegetation to droughts by utilizing subsoil moisture in a quantifiable metric. Using rootzone storage capacity (Sr), which is a novel metric to represent the vegetation's ability to utilize subsoil moisture storage and tree cover (TC), we analyze and quantify the occurrence of these forest-savanna transitions along transects in South America and Africa. We found forest-savanna transition thresholds to occur around a Sr of 550–750 mm for South America and 400–600 mm for Africa in the range of 30%–40% TC. Analysis of empirical and statistical patterns allowed us to classify the ecosystem's adaptability to droughts into four classes of drought coping strategies: lowly water-stressed forest (shallow roots, high TC), moderately water-stressed forest (investing in Sr, high TC), highly water-stressed forest (trade-off between investments in Sr and TC) and savanna-grassland regime (competitive rooting strategy, low TC). The insights from this study are useful for improved understanding of tropical eco-hydrological adaptation, drought coping strategies, and forest ecosystem regime shifts under future climate change.
- ItemLong-term trends of black carbon and particle number concentration in the lower free troposphere in Central Europe(Berlin ; Heidelberg : Springer, 2021) Sun, Jia; Hermann, Markus; Yuan, Ye; Birmili, Wolfram; Collaud Coen, Martine; Weinhold, Kay; Madueño, Leizel; Poulain, Laurent; Tuch, Thomas; Ries, Ludwig; Sohmer, Ralf; Couret, Cedric; Frank, Gabriele; Brem, Benjamin Tobias; Gysel-Beer, Martin; Ma, Nan; Wiedensohler, AlfredBackground: The implementation of emission mitigation policies in Europe over the last two decades has generally improved the air quality, which resulted in lower aerosol particle mass, particle number, and black carbon mass concentration. However, little is known whether the decreasing particle concentrations at a lower-altitude level can be observed in the free troposphere (FT), an important layer of the atmosphere, where aerosol particles have a longer lifetime and may affect climate dynamics. In this study, we used data from two high-Alpine observatories, Zugspitze-Schneefernerhaus (ZSF) and Jungfraujoch (JFJ), to assess the long-term trends on size-resolved particle number concentrations (PNCs) and equivalent black carbon (eBC) mass concentration separated for undisturbed lower FT conditions and under the influence of air from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) from 2009 to 2018. Results: The FT and PBL-influenced conditions were segregated for both sites. We found that the FT conditions in cold months were more prevalent than in warm months, while the measured aerosol parameters showed different seasonal patterns for the FT and PBL-influenced conditions. The pollutants in the PBL-influenced condition have a higher chance to be transported to high-altitudes due to the mountainous topography, leading to a higher concentration and more distinct seasonal variation, and vice versa. The long-term trends of the measured aerosol parameters were evaluated and the decreased aerosol concentrations were observed for both FT and PBL-influenced conditions. The observed decreasing trends in eBC concentration in the PBL-influenced condition are well consistent with the reported trends in total BC emission in Germany and Switzerland. The decreased concentrations in the FT condition suggest that the background aerosol concentration in the lower FT over Central Europe has correspondingly decreased. The change of back trajectories in the FT condition at ZSF and JFJ was further evaluated to investigate the other possible drivers for the decreasing trends. Conclusions: The background aerosol concentration in the lower FT over Central Europe has significantly decreased during 2009–2018. The implementation of emission mitigation policies is the most decisive factor and the decrease of the regional airmass occurrence over Central Europe also has contributed to the decreasing trends. © 2021, The Author(s).
- ItemImplications of non-linearities between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming for assessing the remaining carbon budget(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2020) Nicholls, Z.R.J.; Gieseke, R.; Lewis, J.; Nauels, A.; Meinshausen, M.To determine the remaining carbon budget, a new framework was introduced in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR1.5). We refer to this as a 'segmented' framework because it considers the various components of the carbon budget derivation independently from one another. Whilst implementing this segmented framework, in SR1.5 the assumption was that there is a strictly linear relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming i.e. the TCRE is constant and can be applied to a range of emissions scenarios. Here we test whether such an approach is able to replicate results from model simulations that take the climate system's internal feedbacks and non-linearities into account. Within our modelling framework, following the SR1.5's choices leads to smaller carbon budgets than using simulations with interacting climate components. For 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming targets, the differences are 50 GtCO2 (or 10%) and 260 GtCO2 (or 17%), respectively. However, by relaxing the assumption of strict linearity, we find that this difference can be reduced to around 0 GtCO2 for 1.5 °C of warming and 80 GtCO2 (or 5%) for 2.0 °C of warming (for middle of the range estimates of the carbon cycle and warming response to anthropogenic emissions). We propose an updated implementation of the segmented framework that allows for the consideration of non-linearities between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming.
- ItemInventory reporting of livestock emissions: the impact of the IPCC 1996 and 2006 Guidelines(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021-6-22) Amon, Barbara; Çinar, Gültaç; Anderl, Michael; Dragoni, Federico; Kleinberger-Pierer, Magdalena; Hörtenhuber, StefanThe livestock sector is a major contributor to agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) and nitrogen (N) emissions and efforts are being made to reduce these emissions. National emission inventories are the main tool for reporting emissions. They have to be consistent, comparable, complete, accurate and transparent. The quality of emission inventories is affected by the reporting methodology, emission factors and knowledge of individual sources. In this paper, we investigate the effects of moving from the 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines on the emission estimates from the livestock sector. With Austria as a case study, we estimated the emissions according to the two guidelines, revealing marked changes in emission estimates from different source categories resulting from changes in the applied methodology. Overall estimated GHG emissions from the livestock sector decreased when applying the IPCC 2006 methodology, except for emissions from enteric fermentation. Our study revealed shifts in the relative importance of main emission sources. While the share of CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management increased, the share of N2O emissions from manure management and soils decreased. The most marked decrease was observed for the share of indirect N2O emissions. Our study reveals a strong relationship between the emission inventory methodology and mitigation options as mitigation measures will only be effective for meeting emission reduction targets if their effectiveness can be demonstrated in the national emission inventories. We include an outlook on the 2019 IPCC Refinement and its potential effects on livestock emissions estimates. Emission inventory reports are a potent tool to show the effect of mitigation measures and the methodology prescribed in inventory guidelines will have a distinct effect on the selection of mitigation measures.
- ItemAll options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal(Bristol : IOP Publ., 2021-5-25) Warszawski, Lila; Kriegler, Elmar; Lenton, Timothy M.; Gaffney, Owen; Jacob, Daniela; Klingenfeld, Daniel; Koide, Ryu; Máñez Costa, María; Messner, Dirk; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Schlosser, Peter; Takeuchi, Kazuhiko; Van Der Leeuw, Sander; Whiteman, Gail; Rockström, JohanClimate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).