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- ItemTesting bias adjustment methods for regional climate change applications under observational uncertainty and resolution mismatch(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) Casanueva, Ana; Herrera, Sixto; Iturbide, Maialen; Lange, Stefan; Jury, Martin; Dosio, Alessandro; Maraun, Douglas; Gutiérrez, José M.Systematic biases in climate models hamper their direct use in impact studies and, as a consequence, many statistical bias adjustment methods have been developed to calibrate model outputs against observations. The application of these methods in a climate change context is problematic since there is no clear understanding on how these methods may affect key magnitudes, for example, the climate change signal or trend, under different sources of uncertainty. Two relevant sources of uncertainty, often overlooked, are the sensitivity to the observational reference used to calibrate the method and the effect of the resolution mismatch between model and observations (downscaling effect). In the present work, we assess the impact of these factors on the climate change signal of temperature and precipitation considering marginal, temporal and extreme aspects. We use eight standard and state-of-the-art bias adjustment methods (spanning a variety of methods regarding their nature—empirical or parametric—, fitted parameters and trend-preservation) for a case study in the Iberian Peninsula. The quantile trend-preserving methods (namely quantile delta mapping (QDM), scaled distribution mapping (SDM) and the method from the third phase of ISIMIP-ISIMIP3) preserve better the raw signals for the different indices and variables considered (not all preserved by construction). However, they rely largely on the reference dataset used for calibration, thus presenting a larger sensitivity to the observations, especially for precipitation intensity, spells and extreme indices. Thus, high-quality observational datasets are essential for comprehensive analyses in larger (continental) domains. Similar conclusions hold for experiments carried out at high (approximately 20 km) and low (approximately 120 km) spatial resolutions. © 2020 The Authors. Atmospheric Science Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.
- ItemConsecutive extreme flooding and heat wave in Japan: Are they becoming a norm?(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Wang, Simon S.-Y.; Kim, Hyungjun; Coumou, Dim; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Zhao, Lin; Gillies, Robert R.[No abstract available]
- ItemCauses and importance of new particle formation in the present-day and preindustrial atmospheres(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2017) Gordon, Hamish; Kirkby, Jasper; Baltensperger, Urs; Bianchi, Federico; Breitenlechner, Martin; Curtius, Joachim; Dias, Antonio; Dommen, Josef; Donahue, Neil M.; Dunne, Eimear M.; Duplissy, Jonathan; Ehrhart, Sebastian; Flagan, Richard C.; Frege, Carla; Fuchs, Claudia; Hansel, Armin; Hoyle, Christopher R.; Kulmala, Markku; Kürten, Andreas; Lehtipalo, Katrianne; Makhmutov, Vladimir; Molteni, Ugo; Rissanen, Matti P.; Stozkhov, Yuri; Tröstl, Jasmin; Tsagkogeorgas, Georgios; Wagner, Robert; Williamson, Christina; Wimmer, Daniela; Winkler, Paul M.; Yan, Chao; Carslaw, Ken S.New particle formation has been estimated to produce around half of cloud-forming particles in the present-day atmosphere, via gas-to-particle conversion. Here we assess the importance of new particle formation (NPF) for both the present-day and the preindustrial atmospheres. We use a global aerosol model with parametrizations of NPF from previously published CLOUD chamber experiments involving sulfuric acid, ammonia, organic molecules, and ions. We find that NPF produces around 67% of cloud condensation nuclei at 0.2% supersaturation (CCN0.2%) at the level of low clouds in the preindustrial atmosphere (estimated uncertainty range 45–84%) and 54% in the present day (estimated uncertainty range 38–66%). Concerning causes, we find that the importance of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) in NPF and CCN formation is greater than previously thought. Removing BVOCs and hence all secondary organic aerosol from our model reduces low-cloud-level CCN concentrations at 0.2% supersaturation by 26% in the present-day atmosphere and 41% in the preindustrial. Around three quarters of this reduction is due to the tiny fraction of the oxidation products of BVOCs that have sufficiently low volatility to be involved in NPF and early growth. Furthermore, we estimate that 40% of preindustrial CCN0.2% are formed via ion-induced NPF, compared with 27% in the present day, although we caution that the ion-induced fraction of NPF involving BVOCs is poorly measured at present. Our model suggests that the effect of changes in cosmic ray intensity on CCN is small and unlikely to be comparable to the effect of large variations in natural primary aerosol emissions.
- ItemIce residual properties in mixed-phase clouds at the high-alpine Jungfraujoch site(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2016) Kupiszewski, Piotr; Zanatta, Marco; Mertes, Stephan; Vochezer, Paul; Lloyd, Gary; Schneider, Johannes; Schenk, Ludwig; Schnaiter, Martin; Baltensperger, Urs; Weingartner, Ernest; Gysel, MartinIce residual (IR) and total aerosol properties were measured in mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) at the high-alpine Jungfraujoch research station. Black carbon (BC) content and coating thickness of BC-containing particles were determined using single-particle soot photometers. The ice activated fraction (IAF), derived from a comparison of IR and total aerosol particle size distributions, showed an enrichment of large particles in the IR, with an increase in the IAF from values on the order of 10−4 to 10−3 for 100 nm (diameter) particles to 0.2 to 0.3 for 1 μm (diameter) particles. Nonetheless, due to the high number fraction of submicrometer particles with respect to total particle number, IR size distributions were still dominated by the submicrometer aerosol. A comparison of simultaneously measured number size distributions of BC-free and BC-containing IR and total aerosol particles showed depletion of BC by number in the IR, suggesting that BC does not play a significant role in ice nucleation in MPCs at the Jungfraujoch. The potential anthropogenic climate impact of BC via the glaciation effect in MPCs is therefore likely to be negligible at this site and in environments with similar meteorological conditions and a similar aerosol population. The IAF of the BC-containing particles also increased with total particle size, in a similar manner as for the BC-free particles, but on a level 1 order of magnitude lower. Furthermore, BC-containing IR were found to have a thicker coating than the BC-containing total aerosol, suggesting the importance of atmospheric aging for ice nucleation.
- ItemLong‐Term Changes in the Northern Midwinter Middle Atmosphere in Relation to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Gabriel, A.Long-term changes in the middle atmosphere due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are examined in relation to the effect of the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the northern midwinter circulation. The examinations are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations for 1979–2100 with the Earth-System-Model MPI-ESM-MR that generates the QBO internally. In particular, the three-dimensional residual circulation is used as proxy for the Brewer-Dobson circulation, revealing an increasing downwelling in the center of the polar low over Northern Europe/Siberia (~5% per decade). The changes in northern midwinter temperature, zonal wind, and residual circulation are much stronger during westerly (QBO-W) than easterly (QBO-E) phase of QBO (e.g., for a moderate increase in greenhouse gases, we find maximum decreases in the zonal mean westerly jet at 60°N and 3 hPa of about −14.8 ± 5.4 m/s for QBO-W but only −4.7 ± 5.2 m/s for QBO-E). This is due to a change of the extratropical QBO-W signature toward QBO-E signature while the equatorial QBO remains nearly unchanged (i.e., a change toward disappearance of the so-called Holton-Tan relationship). Similar to the current change from QBO-W to QBO-E signature, the changes during QBO-W include an increase in amplitude and eastward shift in phase of stratospheric stationary Wave 1 at the cost of Wave 2, with decreasing westerlies over North America and increasing downwelling over Siberia. The eastward shift in phase of stationary Wave 1 is related to the associated increase in meridional transport of planetary vorticity. © 2019. The Authors.
- ItemCharacteristics of the Quiet-Time Hot Spot GravityWaves Observed by GOCE Over the Southern Andes on 5 July 2010(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Vadas, Sharon L.; Xu, Shuang; Yue, Jia; Bossert, Katrina; Becker, Erich; Baumgarten, GerdWe analyze quiet-time data from the Gravity Field and Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite as it overpassed the Southern Andes at z≃275 km on 5 July 2010 at 23 UT. We extract the 20 largest traveling atmospheric disturbances from the density perturbations and cross-track winds using Fourier analysis. Using gravity wave (GW) dissipative theory that includes realistic molecular viscosity, we search parameter space to determine which hot spot traveling atmospheric disturbances are GWs. This results in the identification of 17 GWs having horizontal wavelengths λH = 170–1,850 km, intrinsic periods τIr = 11–54 min, intrinsic horizontal phase speeds cIH = 245–630 m/s, and density perturbations (Formula presented.) 0.03–7%. We unambiguously determine the propagation direction for 11 of these GWs and find that most had large meridional components to their propagation directions. Using reverse ray tracing, we find that 10 of these GWs must have been created in the mesosphere or thermosphere. We show that mountain waves (MWs) were observed in the stratosphere earlier that day and that these MWs saturated at z∼ 70–75 km from convective instability. We suggest that these 10 Gravity Field and Ocean Circulation Explorer hot spot GWs are likely tertiary (or higher-order) GWs created from the dissipation of secondary GWs excited by the local body forces created from MW breaking. We suggest that the other GW is likely a secondary or tertiary (or higher-order) GW. This study strongly suggests that the hot spot GWs over the Southern Andes in the quiet-time middle winter thermosphere cannot be successfully modeled by conventional global circulation models where GWs are parameterized and launched in the troposphere or stratosphere. ©2019. The Authors.
- ItemPMC Turbo : Studying Gravity Wave and Instability Dynamics in the Summer Mesosphere Using Polar Mesospheric Cloud Imaging and Profiling From a Stratospheric Balloon(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Fritts, David C.; Miller, Amber D.; Kjellstrand, C. Bjorn; Geach, Christopher; Williams, Bifford P.; Kaifler, Bernd; Kaifler, Natalie; Jones, Glenn; Rapp, Markus; Limon, Michele; Reimuller, Jason; Wang, Ling; Hanany, Shaul; Gisinger, Sonja; Zhao, Yucheng; Stober, Gunter; Randall, Cora E.The Polar Mesospheric Cloud Turbulence (PMC Turbo) experiment was designed to observe and quantify the dynamics of small-scale gravity waves (GWs) and instabilities leading to turbulence in the upper mesosphere during polar summer using instruments aboard a stratospheric balloon. The PMC Turbo scientific payload comprised seven high-resolution cameras and a Rayleigh lidar. Overlapping wide and narrow camera field of views from the balloon altitude of ~38 km enabled resolution of features extending from ~20 m to ~100 km at the PMC layer altitude of ~82 km. The Rayleigh lidar provided profiles of temperature below the PMC altitudes and of the PMCs throughout the flight. PMCs were imaged during an ~5.9-day flight from Esrange, Sweden, to Northern Canada in July 2018. These data reveal sensitivity of the PMCs and the dynamics driving their structure and variability to tropospheric weather and larger-scale GWs and tides at the PMC altitudes. Initial results reveal strong modulation of PMC presence and brightness by larger-scale waves, significant variability in the occurrence of GWs and instability dynamics on time scales of hours, and a diversity of small-scale dynamics leading to instabilities and turbulence at smaller scales. At multiple times, the overall field of view was dominated by extensive and nearly continuous GWs and instabilities at horizontal scales from ~2 to 100 km, suggesting sustained turbulence generation and persistence. At other times, GWs were less pronounced and instabilities were localized and/or weaker, but not absent. An overview of the PMC Turbo experiment motivations, scientific goals, and initial results is presented here. © 2019. The Authors.
- ItemSolar cycle response and long-term trends in the mesospheric metal layers(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2016) Dawkins, E.C.M.; Plane, J.M.C.; Chipperfield, M.P.; Feng, W.; Marsh, D.R.; Höffner, J.; Janches, D.The meteoric metal layers (Na, Fe, and K)—which form as a result of the ablation of incoming meteors—act as unique tracers for chemical and dynamical processes that occur within the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere region. In this work, we examine whether these metal layers are sensitive indicators of decadal long-term changes within the upper atmosphere. Output from a whole-atmosphere climate model is used to assess the response of the Na, K, and Fe layers across a 50 year period (1955–2005). At short timescales, the K layer has previously been shown to exhibit a very different seasonal behavior compared to the other metals. Here we show that this unusual behavior is also exhibited at longer timescales (both the ~11 year solar cycle and 50 year periods), where K displays a much more pronounced response to atmospheric temperature changes than either Na or Fe. The contrasting solar cycle behavior of the K and Na layers predicted by the model is confirmed using satellite and lidar observations for the period 2004–2013.
- ItemZonalWave Number Diagnosis of RossbyWave-Like Oscillations Using Paired Ground-Based Radars(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) He, Maosheng; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Hoffmann, Peter; Hall, Chris M.; Tsutsumi, Masaki; Li, Guozhu; Chau, Jorge LuisFree traveling Rossby wave normal modes (RNMs) are often investigated through large-scale space-time spectral analyses, which therefore is subject to observational availability, especially in the mesosphere. Ground-based mesospheric observations were broadly used to identify RNMs mostly according to the periods of RNMs without resolving their horizontal scales. The current study diagnoses zonal wave numbers of RNM-like oscillations occurring in mesospheric winds observed by two meteor radars at about 79°N. We explore four winters comprising the major stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs) 2009, 2010, and 2013. Diagnosed are predominant oscillations at the periods of 10 and 16 days lasting mostly for three to five whole cycles. All dominant oscillations are associated with westward zonal wave number m=1, excepting one 16-day oscillation associated with m=2. We discuss the m=1 oscillations as transient RNMs and the m=2 oscillation as a secondary wave of nonlinear interaction between an RNM and a stationary Rossby wave. All the oscillations occur around onsets of the three SSWs, suggesting associations between RNMs and SSWs. For comparison, we also explore the wind collected by a similar network at 54°N during 2012–2016. Explored is a manifestation of 5-day wave, namely, an oscillation at 5–7 days with m=1), around the onset of SSW 2013, supporting the associations between RNMs and SSWs. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemOn the Sensitivity of the Devonian Climate to Continental Configuration, Vegetation Cover, Orbital Configuration, CO 2 Concentration, and Insolation(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2019) Brugger, Julia; Hofmann, Matthias; Petri, Stefan; Feulner, GeorgDuring the Devonian (419 to 359 million years ago), life on Earth witnessed decisive evolutionary breakthroughs, most prominently the colonization of land by vascular plants and vertebrates. However, it was also a period of major marine extinctions coinciding with marked changes in climate. The cause of these changes remains unknown, and it is therefore instructive to explore systematically how the Devonian climate responds to changes in boundary conditions. Here we use coupled climate model simulations to investigate separately the influence of changes in continental configuration, vegetation cover, carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, the solar constant, and orbital parameters on the Devonian climate. The biogeophysical effect of changes in vegetation cover is small, and the cooling due to continental drift is offset by the increasing solar constant. Variations of orbital parameters affect the Devonian climate, with the warmest climate states at high obliquity and high eccentricity. The prevailing mode of decadal to centennial climate variability relates to temperature fluctuations in high northern latitudes which are mediated by coupled oscillations involving sea ice cover, ocean convection, and a regional overturning circulation. The temperature evolution during the Devonian is dominated by the strong decrease in atmospheric CO2. Albedo changes due to increasing vegetation cover cannot explain the temperature rise found in Late Devonian proxy data. Finally, simulated temperatures are significantly lower than estimates based on oxygen isotope ratios, suggesting a lower d18O ratio of Devonian seawater. ©2019. The Authors.