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    Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints
    (Rostock : Max Planck Inst. for Demographic Research, 2021) Rikani, Albano; Schewe, Jacob
    BACKGROUND Anticipating changes in international migration patterns is useful for demographic studies and for designing policies that support the well-being of those involved. Existing forecasting methods do not account for a number of stylized facts that emerge from large-scale migration observations and theories: existing migrant communities - diasporas - act to lower migration costs and thereby provide a mechanism of self-amplification; return migration and transit migration are important components of global migration flows; and poverty constrains emigration. OBJECTIVE Here we present hindcasts and future projections of international migration that explicitly account for these nonlinear features. METHODS We develop a dynamic model that simulates migration flows by origin, destination, and place of birth. We calibrate the model using recently constructed global datasets of bilateral migration. RESULTS We show that the model reproduces past patterns and trends well based only on initial migrant stocks and changes in national incomes. We then project migration flows under future scenarios of global socioeconomic development. CONCLUSIONS Different assumptions about income levels and between-country inequality lead to markedly different migration trajectories, with migration flows either converging towards net zero if incomes in presently poor countries catch up with the rest of the world; or remaining high or even rising throughout the 21st century if economic development is slower and more unequal. Importantly, diasporas induce significant inertia and sizable return migration flows. CONTRIBUTION Our simulation model provides a versatile tool for assessing the impacts of different socioeconomic futures on international migration, accounting for important nonlinearities in migration drivers and flows.
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    Leveraging Artificial Intelligence in Marketing for Social Good—An Ethical Perspective
    (Dordrecht : Springer, 2021) Hermann, Erik
    Artificial intelligence (AI) is (re)shaping strategy, activities, interactions, and relationships in business and specifically in marketing. The drawback of the substantial opportunities AI systems and applications (will) provide in marketing are ethical controversies. Building on the literature on AI ethics, the authors systematically scrutinize the ethical challenges of deploying AI in marketing from a multi-stakeholder perspective. By revealing interdependencies and tensions between ethical principles, the authors shed light on the applicability of a purely principled, deontological approach to AI ethics in marketing. To reconcile some of these tensions and account for the AI-for-social-good perspective, the authors make suggestions of how AI in marketing can be leveraged to promote societal and environmental well-being.
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    Do Benefits from Dynamic Tariffing Rise? Welfare Effects of Real-Time Retail Pricing Under Carbon Taxation and Variable Renewable Electricity Supply
    (Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V., 2020) Gambardella, Christian; Pahle, Michael; Schill, Wolf-Peter
    We analyze the gross welfare gains from real-time retail pricing in electricity markets where carbon taxation induces investment in variable renewable technologies. Applying a stylized numerical electricity market model, we find a U-shaped association between carbon taxation and gross welfare gains. The benefits of introducing real-time pricing can accordingly be relatively low at relatively high carbon taxes and vice versa. The non-monotonous change in welfare gains can be explained by corresponding changes in the inefficiency arising from “under-consumption” during low-price periods rather than by changes in wholesale price volatility. Our results may cast doubt on the efficiency of ongoing roll-outs of advanced meters in many electricity markets, since net benefits might only materialize at relatively high carbon tax levels and renewable supply shares. © 2019, The Author(s).
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    The strategic dimension of financing global public goods
    (Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2020) Kornek, Ulrike; Edenhofer, Ottmar
    One challenge in addressing transboundary problems such as climate change is the incentive to free-ride. Transfers from multilateral compensation funds are often used to counteract such incentives, albeit with varying success. We examine how such funds can change the incentive to free-ride in a global public-goods game. In our game, self-interested countries choose their own preferred course, deciding their voluntary public good provision, whether to join a fund that offers compensation for providing the public good and the volume of compensatory payments. We show that (i) total public-good provision is higher when those contributing are given more compensation; and (ii) non-participation in the fund can be punished if the remaining members decrease their public-good provision sufficiently. We then examine three specific fund designs. In the first, the compensation paid to each country is equal to the percentage of above-average total costs for public-goods provision. This design is best able to deter free-riding and can establish the social optimum as the equilibrium. In the second, the compensation paid to each country is a function of the marginal cost of their public-good provision. Here there are significant incentives to free-ride. In the third case, the monetary resources provided by the fund are fixed, a design frequently encountered in international funds. This design is the one least able to deter free-riding. © 2020 The Author(s)
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    Methane emissions from the storage of liquid dairy manure: Influences of season, temperature and storage duration
    (Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2021) Cárdenas, Aura; Ammon, Christian; Schumacher, Britt; Stinner, Walter; Herrmann, Christiane; Schneider, Marcel; Weinrich, Sören; Fischer, Peter; Amon, Thomas; Amon, Barbara
    Methane emissions from livestock manure are primary contributors to GHG emissions from agriculture and options for their mitigation must be found. This paper presents the results of a study on methane emissions from stored liquid dairy cow manure during summer and winter storage periods. Manure from the summer and winter season was stored under controlled conditions in barrels at ambient temperature to simulate manure storage conditions. Methane emissions from the manure samples from the winter season were measured in two time periods: 0 to 69 and 0 to 139 days. For the summer storage period, the experiments covered four time periods: from 0 to 70, 0 to 138, 0 to 209, and 0 to 279 continuous days, with probing every 10 weeks. Additionally, at the end of all storage experiments, samples were placed into eudiometer batch digesters, and their methane emissions were measured at 20 °C for another 60 days to investigate the potential effect of the aging of the liquid manure on its methane emissions. The experiment showed that the methane emissions from manure stored in summer were considerably higher than those from manure stored in winter. CH4 production started after approximately one month, reaching values of 0.061 kg CH4 kg−1 Volatile Solid (VS) and achieving high total emissions of 0.148 kg CH4 kg−1 VS (40 weeks). In winter, the highest emissions level was 0.0011 kg CH4 kg−1 VS (20 weeks). The outcomes of these experimental measurements can be used to suggest strategies for mitigating methane emissions from manure storage.