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- ItemFrom Planetary Boundaries to national fair shares of the global safe operating space — How can the scales be bridged?(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2016) Häyhä, Tiina; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Cornell, Sarah E.; Hoff, HolgerThe planetary boundaries framework proposes quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic perturbation of crucial Earth system processes, and thus marks out a planetary safe operating space for human activities. Yet, decisions regarding resource use and emissions are mostly made at less aggregated scales, by national and sub-national governments, businesses, and other local actors. To operationalize the planetary boundaries concept, the boundaries need to be translated into and aligned with targets that are relevant at these decision-making scales. In this paper, we develop a framework that addresses the biophysical, socio-economic, and ethical dimensions of bridging across scales, to provide a consistently applicable approach for translating the planetary boundaries into national-level fair shares of Earth’s safe operating space. We discuss our findings in the context of previous studies and their implications for future analyses and policymaking. In this way, we link the planetary boundaries framework to widely-applied operational and policy concepts for more robust strong sustainability decision-making.
- ItemA new method for correcting temperature log profiles in low-enthalpy plays(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : Springer Open, 2020) Schumacher, Sandra; Moeck, IngaTemperature logs recorded shortly after drilling operations can be the only temperature information from deep wells. However, these measurements are still influenced by the thermal disturbance caused by drilling and therefore do not represent true rock temperatures. The magnitude of the thermal disturbance is dependent on many factors such as drilling time, logging procedure or mud temperature. However, often old well reports lack this crucial information so that conventional corrections on temperature logs cannot be performed. This impedes the re-evaluation of well data for new exploration purposes, e.g. for geothermal resources. This study presents a new method to correct log temperatures in low-enthalpy play types which only requires a knowledge of the final depth of the well as an input parameter. The method was developed and verified using existing well data from an intracratonic sedimentary basin, the eastern part of the North German Basin. It can be transferred to other basins with little or no adjustment. © 2020, The Author(s).
- ItemMulti-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Ide, Tobias; Brzoska, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Schleussner, Carl-FriedrichClimate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and we find that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset. © 2020 The Authors
- ItemAdjusting climate model bias for agricultural impact assessment: How to cut the mustard(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2019) Galmarini, S.; Cannon, A.J.; Ceglar, A.; Christensen, O.B.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Dentener, F.; Doblas-Reyes, F.J.; Dosio, A.; Gutierrez, J.M.; Iturbide, M.; Jury, M.; Lange, S.; Loukos, H.; Maiorano, A.; Maraun, D.; McGinnis, S.; Nikulin, G.; Riccio, A.; Sanchez, E.; Solazzo, E.; Toreti, A.; Vrac, M.; Zampieri, M.[No abstract available]
- ItemShared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Le Mouël, Chantal; Mathijs, Erik; Mehdi, Bano; Mittenzwei, Klaus; Mora, Olivier; Øistad, Knut; Øygarden, Lillian; Priess, Jörg A.; Reidsma, Pytrik; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schönhart, Martin; Mitter, Hermine; Techen, Anja-K.; Sinabell, Franz; Helming, Katharina; Schmid, Erwin; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Holman, Ian; Kok, Kasper; Lehtonen, Heikki; Leip, AdrianScenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios – the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) – providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes. © 2020 The Author(s)
- ItemPredictability and controlling factors of overpressure in the North Alpine Foreland Basin, SE Germany: an interdisciplinary post-drill analysis of the Geretsried GEN-1 deep geothermal well(Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] : Springer Open, 2020) Drews, Michael C.; Hofstetter, Peter; Zosseder, Kai; Shipilin, Vladimir; Stollhofen, HaraldThe North Alpine Foreland Basin in SE Germany is Germany’s most active deep geothermal province. However, in its southern and eastern part the basin is considerably overpressured, which is a significant challenge for drilling deep geothermal wells. In this study, we combine drilling data and velocity-based pore pressure analyses with 3D basin modeling to assess the predictability and controlling factors of overpressure in the sub-regional context (area of 80 km × 50 km) around the Geretsried GEN-1 well, a deep geothermal exploration well in the southern part of the North Alpine Foreland Basin in SE Germany. Drilling data and velocity-based pore pressure analyses indicate overpressure maxima in the Lower Oligocene (Rupelian and Schoeneck Formation) and up to mild overpressure in the Upper Oligocene (Chattian) and Upper Cretaceous, except for the hydrostatically pressured northwestern part of the study area. 3D basin modeling calibrated to four hydrocarbon wells surrounding the Geretsried GEN-1 well demonstrates the dominating role of disequilibrium compaction and low permeability units related to overpressure generation in the North Alpine Foreland Basin. However, secondary overpressure generation mechanisms are likely contributing. Also, the impact of Upper Cretaceous shales, which are eroded in the northwestern part of the study area, on overpressure maintenance is investigated. The calibrated basin model is tested against the drilling history and velocity (VSP) data-based pore pressure estimate of the Geretsried GEN-1 well and reveals that pore pressure prediction is generally possible using 3D basin modeling in the North Alpine Foreland Basin, but should be improved with more detailed analysis of lateral drainage systems and facies variations in the future. The results of the study are of relevance to future well planning and drilling as well as to geomechanical modeling of subsurface stresses and deep geothermal production in the North Alpine Foreland Basin. © 2020, The Author(s).
- ItemMultiple cropping systems of the world and the potential for increasing cropping intensity(Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier, 2020) Waha, Katharina; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Portmann, Felix T.; Siebert, Stefan; Thornton, Philip K.; Bondeau, Alberte; Herrero, MarioMultiple cropping, defined as harvesting more than once a year, is a widespread land management strategy in tropical and subtropical agriculture. It is a way of intensifying agricultural production and diversifying the crop mix for economic and environmental benefits. Here we present the first global gridded data set of multiple cropping systems and quantify the physical area of more than 200 systems, the global multiple cropping area and the potential for increasing cropping intensity. We use national and sub-national data on monthly crop-specific growing areas around the year 2000 (1998–2002) for 26 crop groups, global cropland extent and crop harvested areas to identify sequential cropping systems of two or three crops with non-overlapping growing seasons. We find multiple cropping systems on 135 million hectares (12% of global cropland) with 85 million hectares in irrigated agriculture. 34%, 13% and 10% of the rice, wheat and maize area, respectively are under multiple cropping, demonstrating the importance of such cropping systems for cereal production. Harvesting currently single cropped areas a second time could increase global harvested areas by 87–395 million hectares, which is about 45% lower than previous estimates. Some scenarios of intensification indicate that it could be enough land to avoid expanding physical cropland into other land uses but attainable intensification will depend on the local context and the crop yields attainable in the second cycle and its related environmental costs. © 2020 The Author(s)
- ItemTypology of vulnerability of wheat farmers in Northeast Iran and implications for their adaptive capacity(Philadelphia, Pa : Taylor & Francis, 2019) Nooghabi, Saeedeh Nazari; Fleskens, Luuk; Sietz, Diana; Azadi, HosseinThis study is focused on understanding sources and patterns of vulnerability of wheat smallholder farmers in Northeast Iran. We conducted a farm household survey and recorded multiple environmental and socio-economic attributes of 391 wheat smallholder farmers. A Vulnerability Scoping Diagram and Principal Component Analysis served to identify key factors determining wheat farmer's vulnerability. Also, we performed a cluster analysis to classify wheat farmers into three vulnerability types. Although drought affects all types as main environmental stressor, only for Cluster 2 was it the key vulnerability factor. For Clusters 1 and 3 socio-economic vulnerability components prevailed: for farmers categorized in Cluster 1 land consolidation was the main problem, while the current wheat import policy was the key problem for Cluster 3 farmers. Multiple tailored policies are needed that reduce the vulnerability of wheat farmers in all clusters. Supportive government policies should for example focus on avoiding price distortions from wheat imports for Cluster 3, land consolidation for Cluster 1 and collective tackling of pests and weeds for Cluster 2. Simultaneous provision of farm advisory services will benefit farmers of Clusters 1 and 3, while availability of improved seeds (drought-tolerant varieties) and other inputs will lower the environmental vulnerability of all farmers. © 2019, © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.