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- ItemResearch data management in agricultural sciences in Germany: We are not yet where we want to be(San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2022) Senft, Matthias; Stahl, Ulrike; Svoboda, NikolaiTo meet the future challenges and foster integrated and holistic research approaches in agricultural sciences, new and sustainable methods in research data management (RDM) are needed. The involvement of scientific users is a critical success factor for their development. We conducted an online survey in 2020 among different user groups in agricultural sciences about their RDM practices and needs. In total, the questionnaire contained 52 questions on information about produced and (re-)used data, data quality aspects, information about the use of standards, publication practices and legal aspects of agricultural research data, the current situation in RDM in regards to awareness, consulting and curricula as well as needs of the agricultural community in respect to future developments. We received 196 (partially) completed questionnaires from data providers, data users, infrastructure and information service providers. In addition to the diversity in the research data landscape of agricultural sciences in Germany, the study reveals challenges, deficits and uncertainties in handling research data in agricultural sciences standing in the way of access and efficient reuse of valuable research data. However, the study also suggests and discusses potential solutions to enhance data publications, facilitate and secure data re-use, ensure data quality and develop services (i.e. training, support and bundling services). Therefore, our research article provides the basis for the development of common RDM, future infrastructures and services needed to foster the cultural change in handling research data across agricultural sciences in Germany and beyond.
- ItemParis Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test([London] : Nature Publishing Group UK, 2020) Glanemann, Nicole; Willner, Sven N.; Levermann, AndersThe Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consistently incorporate a damage-cost curve reproducing the observed relation between temperature and economic growth into the integrated assessment model DICE. We thus provide an inter-temporally optimizing cost-benefit analysis of this century’s climate problem. We account for uncertainties regarding the damage curve, climate sensitivity, socioeconomic future, and mitigation costs. The resulting optimal temperature is robust as can be understood from the generic temperature-dependence of the mitigation costs and the level of damages inferred from the observed temperature-growth relationship. Our results show that the politically motivated Paris Climate Agreement also represents the economically favourable pathway, if carried out properly.
- ItemPhotosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: Benchmarking for impact assessment studies(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2017) Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Munhoven, Guy; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Tian, Hanqin; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Betts, Richard; Hickler, Thomas; Steinkamp, Jörg; Ostberg, Sebastian; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Ciais, Philippe; Chang, Jinfeng; Rafique, Rashid; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, FangSimulating vegetation photosynthetic productivity (or gross primary production, GPP) is a critical feature of the biome models used for impact assessments of climate change. We conducted a benchmarking of global GPP simulated by eight biome models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a) with four meteorological forcing datasets (30 simulations), using independent GPP estimates and recent satellite data of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence as a proxy of GPP. The simulated global terrestrial GPP ranged from 98 to 141 Pg C yr−1 (1981–2000 mean); considerable inter-model and inter-data differences were found. Major features of spatial distribution and seasonal change of GPP were captured by each model, showing good agreement with the benchmarking data. All simulations showed incremental trends of annual GPP, seasonal-cycle amplitude, radiation-use efficiency, and water-use efficiency, mainly caused by the CO2 fertilization effect. The incremental slopes were higher than those obtained by remote sensing studies, but comparable with those by recent atmospheric observation. Apparent differences were found in the relationship between GPP and incoming solar radiation, for which forcing data differed considerably. The simulated GPP trends co-varied with a vegetation structural parameter, leaf area index, at model-dependent strengths, implying the importance of constraining canopy properties. In terms of extreme events, GPP anomalies associated with a historical El Niño event and large volcanic eruption were not consistently simulated in the model experiments due to deficiencies in both forcing data and parameterized environmental responsiveness. Although the benchmarking demonstrated the overall advancement of contemporary biome models, further refinements are required, for example, for solar radiation data and vegetation canopy schemes.
- ItemA novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2013) van Oijen, Marcel; Beer, Christian; Cramer, Wolfgang; Rammig, Anja; Reichstein, Markus; Rolinski, Susanne; Soussana, Jean-FrancoisWe present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series—modelled or measured—of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions.
- ItemMultimodel uncertainty changes in simulated river flows induced by human impact parameterizations(Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2017) Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Cui, Huijuan; Mu, Mengfei; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N.; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, YoshihideHuman impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are quantified in terms of the ratio of signal to noise (SNR) for average river flow during 1971–2000 simulated in two experiments, with representation of human impacts (VARSOC) and without (NOSOC). It is the first quantitative investigation of between-model uncertainty resulted from the inclusion of human impact parameterizations. Results show that the between-model uncertainties in terms of SNRs in the VARSOC annual flow are larger (about 2% for global and varied magnitude for different basins) than those in the NOSOC, which are particularly significant in most areas of Asia and northern areas to the Mediterranean Sea. The SNR differences are mostly negative (−20% to 5%, indicating higher uncertainty) for basin-averaged annual flow. The VARSOC high flow shows slightly lower uncertainties than NOSOC simulations, with SNR differences mostly ranging from −20% to 20%. The uncertainty differences between the two experiments are significantly related to the fraction of irrigation areas of basins. The large additional uncertainties in VARSOC simulations introduced by the inclusion of parameterizations of human impacts raise the urgent need of GHMs development regarding a better understanding of human impacts. Differences in the parameterizations of irrigation, reservoir regulation and water withdrawals are discussed towards potential directions of improvements for future GHM development. We also discuss the advantages of statistical approaches to reduce the between-model uncertainties, and the importance of calibration of GHMs for not only better performances of historical simulations but also more robust and confidential future projections of hydrological changes under a changing environment.
- ItemDirect estimation of the global distribution of vertical velocity within cirrus clouds(London : Nature Publishing Group, 2017) Barahona, Donifan; Molod, Andrea; Kalesse, HeikeCirrus clouds determine the radiative balance of the upper troposphere and the transport of water vapor across the tropopause. The representation of vertical wind velocity, W, in atmospheric models constitutes the largest source of uncertainty in the calculation of the cirrus formation rate. Using global atmospheric simulations with a spatial resolution of 7 km we obtain for the first time a direct estimate of the distribution of W at the scale relevant for cirrus formation, validated against long-term observations at two different ground sites. The standard deviation in W, σ w, varies widely over the globe with the highest values resulting from orographic uplift and convection, and the lowest occurring in the Arctic. Globally about 90% of the simulated σ w values are below 0.1 m s-1 and about one in 104 cloud formation events occur in environments with σ w > 0.8 m s-1. Combining our estimate with reanalysis products and an advanced cloud formation scheme results in lower homogeneous ice nucleation frequency than previously reported, and a decreasing average ice crystal concentration with decreasing temperature. These features are in agreement with observations and suggest that the correct parameterization of σ w is critical to simulate realistic cirrus properties.
- ItemCollocated observations of cloud condensation nuclei, particle size distributions, and chemical composition(London : Nature Publ. Group, 2017) Schmale, Julia; Henning, Silvia; Henzing, Bas; Keskinen, Helmi; Sellegri, Karine; Ovadnevaite, Jurgita; Bougiatioti, Aikaterini; Kalivitis, Nikos; Stavroulas, Iasonas; Jefferson, Anne; Park, Minsu; Schlag, Patrick; Kristensson, Adam; Iwamoto, Yoko; Pringle, Kirsty; Reddington, Carly; Aalto, Pasi; Äijälä, Mikko; Baltensperger, Urs; Bialek, Jakub; Birmili, Wolfram; Bukowiecki, Nicolas; Ehn, Mikael; Fjæraa, Ann Mari; Fiebig, Markus; Frank, Göran; Fröhlich, Roman; Frumau, Arnoud; Furuya, Masaki; Hammer, Emanuel; Heikkinen, Liine; Herrmann, Erik; Holzinger, Rupert; Hyono, Hiroyuki; Kanakidou, Maria; Kiendler-Scharr, Astrid; Kinouchi, Kento; Kos, Gerard; Kulmala, Markku; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Motos, Ghislain; Nenes, Athanasios; O’Dowd, Colin; Paramonov, Mikhail; Petäjä, Tuukka; Picard, David; Poulain, Laurent; Prévôt, André Stephan Henry; Slowik, Jay; Sonntag, Andre; Swietlicki, Erik; Svenningsson, Birgitta; Tsurumaru, Hiroshi; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Wittbom, Cerina; Ogren, John A.; Matsuki, Atsushi; Yum, Seong Soo; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Carslaw, Ken; Stratmann, Frank; Gysel, MartinCloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations alongside with submicrometer particle number size distributions and particle chemical composition have been measured at atmospheric observatories of the Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research InfraStructure (ACTRIS) as well as other international sites over multiple years. Here, harmonized data records from 11 observatories are summarized, spanning 98,677 instrument hours for CCN data, 157,880 for particle number size distributions, and 70,817 for chemical composition data. The observatories represent nine different environments, e.g., Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific and Mediterranean maritime, boreal forest, or high alpine atmospheric conditions. This is a unique collection of aerosol particle properties most relevant for studying aerosol-cloud interactions which constitute the largest uncertainty in anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. The dataset is appropriate for comprehensive aerosol characterization (e.g., closure studies of CCN), model-measurement intercomparison and satellite retrieval method evaluation, among others. Data have been acquired and processed following international recommendations for quality assurance and have undergone multiple stages of quality assessment.