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    Ice-marginal forced regressive deltas in glacial lake basins: geomorphology, facies variability and large-scale depositional architecture
    (Oxford [u.a.] : Wiley-Blackwell, 2018) Winsemann, Jutta; Lang, Jörg; Polom, Ulrich; Loewer, Markus; Igel, Jan; Pollok, Lukas; Brandes, Christian
    This study presents a synthesis of the geomorphology, facies variability and depositional architecture of ice-marginal deltas affected by rapid lake-level change. The integration of digital elevation models, outcrop, borehole, ground-penetrating radar and high-resolution shear-wave seismic data allows for a comprehensive analysis of these delta systems and provides information about the distinct types of deltaic facies and geometries generated under different lake-level trends. The exposed delta sediments record mainly the phase of maximum lake level and subsequent lake drainage. The stair-stepped profiles of the delta systems reflect the progressive basinward lobe deposition during forced regression when the lakes successively drained. Depending on the rate and magnitude of lake-level fall, fan-shaped, lobate or more digitate tongue-like delta morphologies developed. Deposits of the stair-stepped transgressive delta bodies are buried, downlapped and onlapped by the younger forced regressive deposits. The delta styles comprise both Gilbert-type deltas and shoal-water deltas. The sedimentary facies of the steep Gilbert-type delta foresets include a wide range of gravity-flow deposits. Delta deposits of the forced-regressive phase are commonly dominated by coarse-grained debrisflow deposits, indicating strong upslope erosion and cannibalization of older delta deposits. Deposits of supercritical turbidity currents are particularly common in sand-rich Gilbert-type deltas that formed during slow rises in lake level and during highstands. Foreset beds consist typically of laterally and vertically stacked deposits of antidunes and cyclic steps. The trigger mechanisms for these supercritical turbidity currents were both hyperpycnal meltwater flows and slope-failure events. Shoal-water deltas formed at low water depths during both low rates of lake-level rise and forced regression. Deposition occurred from tractional flows. Transgressive mouthbars form laterally extensive sand-rich delta bodies with a digitate, multi-tongue morphology. In contrast, forced regressive gravelly shoal-water deltas show a high dispersion of flow directions and form laterally overlapping delta lobes. Deformation structures in the forced-regressive ice-marginal deltas are mainly extensional features, including normal faults, small graben or half-graben structures and shear-deformation bands, which are related to gravitational delta tectonics, postglacial faulting during glacial-isostatic adjustment, and crestal collapse above salt domes. A neotectonic component cannot be ruled out in some cases. © 2018 The Authors. Boreas published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Boreas Collegium
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    Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model
    (Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus, 2018) Calov, Reinhard; Beyer, Sebastian; Greve, Ralf; Beckmann, Johanna; Willeit, Matteo; Kleiner, Thomas; Rückamp, Martin; Humbert, Angelika; Ganopolski, Andrey
    We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. The aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961-1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961-1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation-surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute between 1.9 and 13.0 cm to global sea level rise until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation-surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking the Helheim and Store glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.
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    Transboundary geophysical mapping of geological elements and salinity distribution critical for the assessment of future sea water intrusion in response to sea level rise
    (Munich : EGU, 2012) Jørgensen, F.; Scheer, W.; Thomsen, S.; Sonnenborg, T.O.; Hinsby, K.; Wiederhold, H.; Schamper, C.; Burschil, T.; Roth, B.; Kirsch, R.; Auken, E.
    Geophysical techniques are increasingly being used as tools for characterising the subsurface, and they are generally required to develop subsurface models that properly delineate the distribution of aquifers and aquitards, salt/freshwater interfaces, and geological structures that affect groundwater flow. In a study area covering 730 km2 across the border between Germany and Denmark, a combination of an airborne electromagnetic survey (performed with the SkyTEM system), a high-resolution seismic survey and borehole logging has been used in an integrated mapping of important geological, physical and chemical features of the subsurface. The spacing between flight lines is 200–250 m which gives a total of about 3200 line km. About 38 km of seismic lines have been collected. Faults bordering a graben structure, buried tunnel valleys, glaciotectonic thrust complexes, marine clay units, and sand aquifers are all examples of geological structures mapped by the geophysical data that control groundwater flow and to some extent hydrochemistry. Additionally, the data provide an excellent picture of the salinity distribution in the area and thus provide important information on the salt/freshwater boundary and the chemical status of groundwater. Although the westernmost part of the study area along the North Sea coast is saturated with saline water and the TEM data therefore are strongly influenced by the increased electrical conductivity there, buried valleys and other geological elements are still revealed. The mapped salinity distribution indicates preferential flow paths through and along specific geological structures within the area. The effects of a future sea level rise on the groundwater system and groundwater chemistry are discussed with special emphasis on the importance of knowing the existence, distribution and geometry of the mapped geological elements, and their control on the groundwater salinity distribution is assessed.
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    Thinning Can Reduce Losses in Carbon Use Efficiency and Carbon Stocks in Managed Forests Under Warmer Climate
    (Fort Collins, Colo. : [Verlag nicht ermittelbar], 2018) Collalti, Alessio; Trotta, Carlo; Keenan, Trevor F.; Ibrom, Andreas; Bond‐Lamberty, Ben; Grote, Ruediger; Vicca, Sara; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Migliavacca, Mirco; Veroustraete, Frank; Anav, Alessandro; Campioli, Matteo; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Šigut, Ladislav; Grieco, Elisa; Cescatti, Alessandro; Matteucci, Giorgio
    Forest carbon use efficiency (CUE, the ratio of net to gross primary productivity) represents the fraction of photosynthesis that is not used for plant respiration. Although important, it is often neglected in climate change impact analyses. Here we assess the potential impact of thinning on projected carbon cycle dynamics and implications for forest CUE and its components (i.e., gross and net primary productivity and plant respiration), as well as on forest biomass production. Using a detailed process-based forest ecosystem model forced by climate outputs of five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected future changes in the autotrophic carbon budget of three representative European forests. We focus on changes in CUE and carbon stocks as a result of warming, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, and forest thinning. Results show that autotrophic carbon sequestration decreases with forest development, and the decrease is faster with warming and in unthinned forests. This suggests that the combined impacts of climate change and changing CO2 concentrations lead the forests to grow faster, mature earlier, and also die younger. In addition, we show that under future climate conditions, forest thinning could mitigate the decrease in CUE, increase carbon allocation into more recalcitrant woody pools, and reduce physiological-climate-induced mortality risks. Altogether, our results show that thinning can improve the efficacy of forest-based mitigation strategies and should be carefully considered within a portfolio of mitigation options.
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    Modelling Ag-particle activation and growth in a TSI WCPC model 3785
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2010) Stratmann, F.; Herrmann, E.; Petäjä, T.; Kulmala, M.
    In this work, we modelled activation and growth of silver particles in the water-operated TSI model 3785 water condensation particle counter (WCPC). Our objective was to investigate theoretically how various effects influence the counting efficiency of this CPC. Coupled fluid and particle dynamic processes were modelled with the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT in combination with the Fine Particle Model (FPM) to obtain profiles of temperature, vapour concentration, nucleation rate, and particle size. We found that the counting efficiency of the TSI 3785 for small particles might be affected by the presence of larger particles. Moreover, homogeneous nucleation processes can significantly influence counting efficiency.
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    Compiling geophysical and geological information into a 3-D model of the glacially-affected island of Föhr
    (Munich : EGU, 2012) Burschil, T.; Scheer, W.; Kirsch, R.; Wiederhold, H.
    Within the scope of climatic change and associated sea level rise, coastal aquifers are endangered and are becoming more a focus of research to ensure the future water supply in coastal areas. For groundwater modelling a good understanding of the geological/hydrogeological situation and the aquifer behavior is necessary. In preparation of groundwater modelling and assessment of climate change impacts on coastal water resources, we setup a geological/hydrogeological model for the North Sea Island of Föhr. Data from different geophysical methods applied from the air, the surface and in boreholes contribute to the 3-D model, e.g. airborne electromagnetics (SkyTEM) for spatial mapping the resistivity of the entire island, seismic reflections for detailed cross-sections in the groundwater catchment area, and geophysical borehole logging for calibration of these measurements. An iterative and integrated evaluation of the results from the different geophysical methods contributes to reliable data as input for the 3-D model covering the whole island and not just the well fields. The complex subsurface structure of the island is revealed. The local waterworks use a freshwater body embedded in saline groundwater. Several glaciations reordered the youngest Tertiary and Quaternary sediments by glaciotectonic thrust faulting, as well as incision and refill of glacial valleys. Both subsurface structures have a strong impact on the distribution of freshwater-bearing aquifers. A digital geological 3-D model reproduces the hydrogeological structure of the island as a base for a groundwater model. In the course of the data interpretation, we deliver a basis for rock identification. We demonstrate that geophysical investigation provide petrophysical parameters and improve the understanding of the subsurface and the groundwater system. The main benefit of our work is that the successful combination of electromagnetic, seismic and borehole data reveals the complex geology of a glacially-affected island. A sound understanding of the subsurface structure and the compilation of a 3-D model is imperative and the basis for a groundwater flow model to predict climate change effects on future water resources.
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    Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production potential: A global analysis
    (Göttingen : Copernicus GmbH, 2014) Kummu, M.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Konzmann, M.; Varis, O.
    Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been studied intensively, less is known on subsequent implications for global food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand in global agriculture, and thus complement former studies that have focused merely on long-term averages. Moreover, we assess some options to overcome chronic or sporadic water scarcity. The analysis is based on historical climate forcing data sets over the period 1977-2006, while demography, diet composition and land use are fixed to reference conditions (year 2000). In doing so, we isolate the effect of interannual hydroclimatic variability from other factors that drive food production. We analyse the potential of food production units (FPUs) to produce a reference diet for their inhabitants (3000 kcal cap-1 day -1, with 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology model to calculate the variation in green-blue water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient to produce the diet (i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency to estimate dependency on trade from elsewhere). We found that 24% of the world's population lives in chronically water-scarce FPUs (i.e. water is scarce every year), while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity (water is scarce in some years). Among these 2.6 billion people altogether, 55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference diet, while for 24% domestic trade would be enough. For the remaining 21% of the population exposed to some degree of water scarcity, local food storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough to secure the reference diet over the occasional dry years.
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    Evaluation of a global aerosol microphysics model against size-resolved particle statistics in the marine atmosphere
    (München : European Geopyhsical Union, 2007) Spracklen, D.V.; Pringle, K.J.; Carslaw, K.S.; Mann, G.W.; Manktelow, P.; Heintzenberg, J.
    A statistical synthesis of marine aerosol measurements from experiments in four different oceans is used to evaluate a global aerosol microphysics model (GLOMAP). We compare the model against observed size resolved particle concentrations, probability distributions, and the temporal persistence of different size particles. We attempt to explain the observed sub-micrometre size distributions in terms of sulfate and sea spray and quantify the possible contributions of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous material to the number and mass distribution. The model predicts a bimodal size distribution that agrees well with observations as a grand average over all regions, but there are large regional differences. Notably, observed Aitken mode number concentrations are more than a factor 10 higher than in the model for the N Atlantic but a factor 7 lower than the model in the NW Pacific. We also find that modelled Aitken mode and accumulation mode geometric mean diameters are generally smaller in the model by 10–30%. Comparison with observed free tropospheric Aitken mode distributions suggests that the model underpredicts growth of these particles during descent to the marine boundary layer (MBL). Recent observations of a substantial organic component of free tropospheric aerosol could explain this discrepancy. We find that anthropogenic continental material makes a substantial contribution to N Atlantic MBL aerosol, with typically 60–90% of sulfate across the particle size range coming from anthropogenic sources, even if we analyse air that has spent an average of >120 h away from land. However, anthropogenic primary black carbon and organic carbon particles (at the emission size and quantity assumed here) do not explain the large discrepancies in Aitken mode number. Several explanations for the discrepancy are suggested. The lack of lower atmospheric particle formation in the model may explain low N Atlantic particle concentrations. However, the observed and modelled particle persistence at Cape Grim in the Southern Ocean, does not reveal a diurnal cycle consistent with a photochemically driven local particle source. We also show that a physically based cloud drop activation scheme better explains the observed change in accumulation mode geometric mean diameter with particle number.
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    Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels
    (Washington : American Association for the Advancement of Science (A A A S), 2018) Willner, S.N.; Levermann, A.; Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.
    Earth’s surface temperature will continue to rise for another 20 to 30 years even with the strongest carbon emission reduction currently considered. The associated changes in rainfall patterns can result in an increased flood risk worldwide. We compute the required increase in flood protection to keep high-end fluvial flood risk at present levels. The analysis is carried out worldwide for subnational administrative units. Most of the United States, Central Europe, and Northeast and West Africa, as well as large parts of India and Indonesia, require the strongest adaptation effort. More than half of the United States needs to at least double their protection within the next two decades. Thus, the need for adaptation to increased river flood is a global problem affecting industrialized regions as much as developing countries.