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search.filters.applied.f.access: openAccess × DDC: 550 × Has files: Yes × Type: Text × Publisher: Hoboken, NJ : Wiley × Subject: Paris Agreement ×

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Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    Deadly Heat Stress to Become Commonplace Across South Asia Already at 1.5°C of Global Warming
    (Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2021) Saeed, Fahad; Schleussner, Carl‐Friedrich; Ashfaq, Moetasim
    South Asia (SA) is one of those hotspots where earliest exposure to deadly wet-bulb temperatures (Tw >35°C) is projected in warmer future climates. Here we find that even today parts of SA experience the upper limits of labor productivity (Tw >32°C) or human survivability (Tw >35°C), indicating that previous estimates for future exposure to Tw-based extremes may be conservative. Our results show that at 2°C global warming above pre-industrial levels, the per person exposure approximately increases by 2.2 (2.7) folds for unsafe labor (lethal) threshold compared to the 2006–2015 reference period. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would avoid about half that impact. The population growth under the middle-of-the-road socioeconomic pathway could further increase these exposures by a factor of ∼2 by the mid-century. These results indicate an imminent need for adaptation measures, while highlighting the importance of stringent Paris-compatible mitigation actions for limiting future emergence of such conditions in SA.
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    Getting it right matters: Temperature goal interpretations in geoscience research
    (Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2017) Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl‐Friedrich; Hare, William
    The adoption of the 1.5°C long-term warming limit in the Paris Agreement made 1.5°C a “hot topic” in the scientific community, with researchers eager to address this issue. Long-term warming limits have a decade-long history in international policy. To effectively inform the climate policy debate, geoscience research hence needs a core understanding of their legal and policy context. Here we describe this context in detail and illustrate its importance by showing the impact it can have on global carbon budget estimates. We show that definitional clarity is essential on this important matter.
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    The world’s biggest gamble
    (Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2016) Rockström, Johan; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Hoskins, Brian; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Schlosser, Peter; Brasseur, Guy Pierre; Gaffney, Owen; Nobre, Carlos; Meinshausen, Malte; Rogelj, Joeri; Lucht, Wolfgang
    The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emissions reductions within 40 years and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example, waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil‐free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity's remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase‐out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth‐system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible.
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    The biosphere under potential Paris outcomes
    (Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2018) Ostberg, Sebastian; Boysen, Lena R.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, Dieter
    Rapid economic and population growth over the last centuries have started to push the Earth out of its Holocene state into the Anthropocene. In this new era, ecosystems across the globe face mounting dual pressure from human land use change (LUC) and climate change (CC). With the Paris Agreement, the international community has committed to holding global warming below 2°C above preindustrial levels, yet current pledges by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions appear insufficient to achieve that goal. At the same time, the sustainable development goals strive to reduce inequalities between countries and provide sufficient food, feed, and clean energy to a growing world population likely to reach more than 9 billion by 2050. Here, we present a macro‐scale analysis of the projected impacts of both CC and LUC on the terrestrial biosphere over the 21st century using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to illustrate possible trajectories following the Paris Agreement. We find that CC may cause major impacts in landscapes covering between 16% and 65% of the global ice‐free land surface by the end of the century, depending on the success or failure of achieving the Paris goal. Accounting for LUC impacts in addition, this number increases to 38%–80%. Thus, CC will likely replace LUC as the major driver of ecosystem change unless global warming can be limited to well below 2°C. We also find a substantial risk that impacts of agricultural expansion may offset some of the benefits of ambitious climate protection for ecosystems.