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- ItemEarly Warning of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase Transition Using Complex Network Analysis(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2021) Lu, Zhenghui; Yuan, Naiming; Yang, Qing; Ma, Zhuguo; Kurths, JürgenObtaining an efficient prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase transition is a worldwide challenge. Here, we employed the climate network analysis to uncover early warning signals prior to a PDO phase transition. This way an examination of cooperative behavior in the PDO region revealed an enhanced signal that propagated from the western Pacific to the northwest coast of North America. The detection of this signal corresponds very well to the time when the upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial northwestern tropical Pacific reaches a threshold, in which case a PDO phase transition may be expected with the arising of the next El Ni urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0001o/La Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0002 a event. The objectively detected early warning signal successfully forewarned all the six PDO phase transitions from the 1890–2000, and also underpinned the possible PDO phase transition around 2015, which may be triggered by the strong El Niurn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl61986:grl61986-math-0003o event in 2015–2016.
- ItemModel studies of short-term variations induced in trace gases by particle precipitation in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2016) Fytterer, T.; Bender, S.; Berger, U.; Nieder, H.; Sinnhuber, M.; Wissing, J.M.The 3-D global chemistry and transport model (3dCTM) was used to investigate NO, OH, and O3 from January 2002 to May 2010 between 60 km and 133 km. Their daytime and nighttime mean zonal means (55°–75° geomagnetic latitude) were analyzed with respect to short-term variations associated with particle precipitation. The corresponding ionization rates were derived from the 3-D atmospheric ionization module Osnabrück (AIMOS), which is based on particle flux measurements. The trace gas variations with respect to their background were investigated by using a superposed epoch analysis. The 27 day signature associated with particle precipitation is found in NO, while it is only indicated in OH and O3 during winter. A varying solar spectrum associated with the 11 year solar cycle causes modifications of this signal up to 10%, while the main patterns are conserved. Published observations show a clear 27 day signal, qualitatively agreeing with the model results at altitudes >70 km except for O3 in Northern Hemisphere winter. Further differences occur with respect to the magnitude of the trace gas variations, primarily attributed to the different trace gas background and dynamical variations of the background atmosphere. Absolute OH variations are overestimated by the 3dCTM during winter, while the opposite is true for O3. These differences might originate from an unknown offset in AIMOS, incorrect chemical reaction rates, a different background of H2O and O3, and the model dynamics. However, their nonlinear relationship and their altitude of largest response are qualitatively captured in Southern Hemisphere winter.
- ItemTowards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2016) Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; Gerten, Dieter; Caminade, Cyril; Gosling, Simon N.; Hendy, Erica J.; Kassie, Belay T.; Kissling, W. Daniel; Muri, Helene; Oschlies, Andreas; Smith, Steven J.Despite a growing literature on the climate response to solar geoengineering—proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo—there has been little published on the impacts of solar geoengineering on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. An understanding of the impacts of different scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment will be crucial for informing decisions on whether and how to deploy it. Here we review the current state of knowledge about impacts of a solar‐geoengineered climate and identify the major research gaps. We suggest that a thorough assessment of the climate impacts of a range of scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment is needed and can be built upon existing frameworks. However, solar geoengineering poses a novel challenge for climate impacts research as the manner of deployment could be tailored to pursue different objectives making possible a wide range of climate outcomes. We present a number of ideas for approaches to extend the survey of climate impacts beyond standard scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment to address this challenge. Reducing the impacts of climate change is the fundamental motivator for emissions reductions and for considering whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering. This means that the active engagement of the climate impacts research community will be important for improving the overall understanding of the opportunities, challenges, and risks presented by solar geoengineering.
- ItemQuasi‐10‐Day Wave and Semidiurnal Tide Nonlinear Interactions During the Southern Hemispheric SSW 2019 Observed in the Northern Hemispheric Mesosphere(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) He, Maosheng; Chau, Jorge L.; Forbes, Jeffrey M.; Thorsen, Denise; Li, Guozhu; Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Hocking, Wayne K.Mesospheric winds from three longitudinal sectors at 65°N and 54°N latitude are combined to diagnose the zonal wave numbers (m) of spectral wave signatures during the Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) 2019. Diagnosed are quasi-10- and 6-day planetary waves (Q10DW and Q6DW, m = 1), solar semidiurnal tides with m = 1, 2, 3 (SW1, SW2, and SW3), lunar semidiurnal tide, and the upper and lower sidebands (USB and LSB, m = 1 and 3) of Q10DW-SW2 nonlinear interactions. We further present 7-year composite analyses to distinguish SSW effects from climatological features. Before (after) the SSW onset, LSB (USB) enhances, accompanied by the enhancing (fading) Q10DW, and a weakening of climatological SW2 maximum. These behaviors are explained in terms of Manley-Rowe relation, that is, the energy goes first from SW2 to Q10DW and LSB, and then from SW2 and Q10DW to USB. Our results illustrate that the interactions can explain most wind variabilities associated with the SSW. © 2020. The Authors.
- ItemThe Effect of Obliquity-Driven Changes on Paleoclimate Sensitivity During the Late Pleistocene(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2018) Köhler, Peter; Knorr, Gregor; Stap, Lennert B.; Ganopolski, Andrey; de Boer, Bas; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Barker, Stephen; Rüpke, Lars H.We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state-dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multimillennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction-based extrapolation of S for the future, we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg-CO2 divergence and find that S is less state-dependent, or even constant state-independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.
- ItemUsing Principal Component Analysis of Satellite and Ground Magnetic Data to Model the Equatorial Electrojet and Derive Its Tidal Composition(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2022) Soares, Gabriel; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Morschhauser, Achim; Matzka, Jürgen; Pinheiro, Katia J.; Stolle, Claudia; Alken, Patrick; Yoshikawa, Akimasa; Hozumi, Kornyanat; Kulkarni, Atul; Supnithi, PornchaiThe intensity of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) shows temporal and spatial variability that is not yet fully understood nor accurately modeled. Atmospheric solar tides are among the main drivers of this variability but determining different tidal components and their respective time series is challenging. It requires good temporal and spatial coverage with observations, which, previously could only be achieved by accumulating data over many years. Here, we propose a new technique for modeling the EEJ based on principal component analysis (PCA) of a hybrid ground-satellite geomagnetic data set. The proposed PCA-based model (PCEEJ) represents the observed EEJ better than the climatological EEJM-2 model, especially when there is good local time separation among the satellites involved. The amplitudes of various solar tidal modes are determined from PCEEJ based tidal equation fitting. This allows to evaluate interannual and intraannual changes of solar tidal signatures in the EEJ. On average, the obtained time series of migrating and nonmigrating tides agree with the average climatology available from earlier work. A comparison of tidal signatures in the EEJ with tides derived from neutral atmosphere temperature observations show a remarkable correlation for nonmigrating tides such as DE3, DE2, DE4, and SW4. The results indicate that it is possible to obtain a meaningful EEJ spectrum related to solar tides for a relatively short time interval of 70 days.
- ItemFour-Dimensional Quantification of Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities in the Polar SummerMesosphere Using Volumetric Radar Imaging(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) Chau, J.L.; Urco, J.M.; Avsarkisov, V.; Vierinen, J.P.; Latteck, R.; Hall, C.M.; Tsutsumi, M.We present and characterize in time and three spatial dimensions a Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability (KHI) event from polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) observed with the Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System. We use a newly developed radar imaging mode, which observed PMSE intensity and line of sight velocity with high temporal and angular resolution. The identified KHI event occurs in a narrow layer of 2.4 km thickness centered at 85 km altitude, is elongated along north-south direction, presents separation between billows of ~ 8 km in the east-west direction, and its billow width is ~ 3 km. The accompanying vertical gradients of the horizontal wind are between 35 and 45 m/s/km and vertical velocities inside the billows are ± 12 m/s. Based on the estimated Richardson (< 0.25), horizontal Froude ( ~ 0.8), and buoyancy Reynolds ( ~ 2.5 × 10 4) numbers, the observed event is a KHI that occurs under weak stratification and generates strong turbulence. © 2019. The Authors.
- ItemEffect of dimethylamine on the gas phase sulfuric acid concentration measured by Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometry(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2016) Rondo, L.; Ehrhart, S.; Kürten, A.; Adamov, A.; Bianchi, F.; Breitenlechner, M.; Duplissy, J.; Franchin, A.; Dommen, J.; Donahue, Neil M.; Dunne, E.M.; Flagan, R.C.; Hakala, J.; Hansel, A.; Keskinen, H.; Kim, J.; Jokinen, T.; Lehtipalo, K.; Leiminger, M.; Praplan, A.; Riccobono, F.; Rissanen, M.P.; Sarnela, N.; Schobesberger, S.; Simon, M.; Sipilä, M.; Smith, J.N.; Tomé, A.; Tröstl, J.; Tsagkogeorgas, G.; Vaattovaara, P.; Winkler, P.M.; Williamson, C.; Wimmer, D.; Baltensperger, U.; Kirkby, J.; Kulmala, M.; Petäjä, T.; Worsnop, D.R.; Curtius, J.Sulfuric acid is widely recognized as a very important substance driving atmospheric aerosol nucleation. Based on quantum chemical calculations it has been suggested that the quantitative detection of gas phase sulfuric acid (H2SO4) by use of Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometry (CIMS) could be biased in the presence of gas phase amines such as dimethylamine (DMA). An experiment (CLOUD7 campaign) was set up at the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) chamber to investigate the quantitative detection of H2SO4 in the presence of dimethylamine by CIMS at atmospherically relevant concentrations. For the first time in the CLOUD experiment, the monomer sulfuric acid concentration was measured by a CIMS and by two CI-APi-TOF (Chemical Ionization-Atmospheric Pressure interface-Time Of Flight) mass spectrometers. In addition, neutral sulfuric acid clusters were measured with the CI-APi-TOFs. The CLOUD7 measurements show that in the presence of dimethylamine (<5 to 70 pptv) the sulfuric acid monomer measured by the CIMS represents only a fraction of the total H2SO4, contained in the monomer and the clusters that is available for particle growth. Although it was found that the addition of dimethylamine dramatically changes the H2SO4 cluster distribution compared to binary (H2SO4-H2O) conditions, the CIMS detection efficiency does not seem to depend substantially on whether an individual H2SO4 monomer is clustered with a DMA molecule. The experimental observations are supported by numerical simulations based on A Self-contained Atmospheric chemistry coDe coupled with a molecular process model (Sulfuric Acid Water NUCleation) operated in the kinetic limit.
- ItemZonalWave Number Diagnosis of RossbyWave-Like Oscillations Using Paired Ground-Based Radars(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2020) He, Maosheng; Yamazaki, Yosuke; Hoffmann, Peter; Hall, Chris M.; Tsutsumi, Masaki; Li, Guozhu; Chau, Jorge LuisFree traveling Rossby wave normal modes (RNMs) are often investigated through large-scale space-time spectral analyses, which therefore is subject to observational availability, especially in the mesosphere. Ground-based mesospheric observations were broadly used to identify RNMs mostly according to the periods of RNMs without resolving their horizontal scales. The current study diagnoses zonal wave numbers of RNM-like oscillations occurring in mesospheric winds observed by two meteor radars at about 79°N. We explore four winters comprising the major stratospheric sudden warming events (SSWs) 2009, 2010, and 2013. Diagnosed are predominant oscillations at the periods of 10 and 16 days lasting mostly for three to five whole cycles. All dominant oscillations are associated with westward zonal wave number m=1, excepting one 16-day oscillation associated with m=2. We discuss the m=1 oscillations as transient RNMs and the m=2 oscillation as a secondary wave of nonlinear interaction between an RNM and a stationary Rossby wave. All the oscillations occur around onsets of the three SSWs, suggesting associations between RNMs and SSWs. For comparison, we also explore the wind collected by a similar network at 54°N during 2012–2016. Explored is a manifestation of 5-day wave, namely, an oscillation at 5–7 days with m=1), around the onset of SSW 2013, supporting the associations between RNMs and SSWs. ©2020. The Authors.
- ItemSoil hydraulic interpretation of nuclear magnetic resonance measurements based on circular and triangular capillary models(Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2021) Costabel, Stephan; Hiller, ThomasGeophysical nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) applications are used to estimate pore size distributions (PSDs) of rocks and sediments. This is commonly realized by empirical calibration using information about the surface-to-volume ratio of the material. Recent research has developed joint inversion concepts for NMR relaxation data that provides the PSD with a minimum of information. The application requires the NMR signal of a sample at saturation and at least one at partial saturation and at known suction. The new inversion concept physically simulates the desaturation process as part of the forward operator. The cross-section of the model capillaries in the underlying bundle can be either circular or triangular. Our study investigates the performance of the NMR joint inversion to predict water retention function (WRF) and capillary-based hydraulic conductivity (Kcap) as functions of saturation for different sands. The angularity of the pores has no significant impact on the estimated WRF but affects the Kcap estimation significantly. Our study shows that the WRF is predicted reliably for sand samples under fast diffusion conditions. The Kcap estimations are also plausible but tend to systematic overestimation, for which we identified the tortuosity being the main reason. Because NMR relaxation data generally do not provide tortuosity information, a plausible tortuosity model remains an issue of classical calibration. Further development of the approach will thus consider tortuosity measurements (e.g., by electrical resistivity measurements and/or gradient NMR) and will consider the relaxation mechanisms outside fast diffusion conditions to enhance its applicability for coarse soils.